Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pahrump, NV

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:34PM Monday September 27, 2021 8:27 PM PDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pahrump, NV
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location: 36.41, -116     debug


Area Discussion for - Las Vegas, NV
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FXUS65 KVEF 280220 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 720 PM PDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across eastern Mohave County today as an upper level disturbance slowly moves east into New Mexico. Elsewhere, expect areas of smoke and haze with slightly above normal temperatures. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday, ushering in breezy to locally windy conditions, and chances for precipitation north and east of Las Vegas. After a few days of cooler temperatures, a warming trend returns over the weekend.

UPDATE. Well the smoke is back . back . back again as the flow aloft shifts more southwesterly ahead of an incoming Pacific trough. Expecting the smoke to continue to spread north and east overnight, with lingering haze and visibility reduction expected tomorrow.

Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms are ongoing across Northern Arizona but will continue to gradually weaken through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Most of the storms today have been focused in Coconino County but a strong storm popped up earlier near Mt Trumbull that likely produced some severe hail to quarter sized or larger, along with pockets of over an inch of rainfall.

The current forecast has current trends in smoke and weather well handled so no update is necessary this evening.

-Outler-

SHORT TERM. through tonight. Late morning water vapor loop showed the upper level low moving slowly east over New Mexico. Wraparound mid level clouds were over southern Mohave County, and wildfire smoke covered much of Inyo, Esmeralda, northern San Bernardino, and central Nye counties. Smoky conditions will spread farther east through our CWA as the afternoon and evening wear on, and a few thunderstorms may pop in eastern Mohave County as vorticity lobes rotate around the back side of the departing low. High resolution models forecast CAPEs around 1000 J/kg in that area this afternoon, so any extra lifting mechanism should result in thunderstorm development. By late tonight, a pattern change will be underway, as a deep trough which was near 132W late this morning rolls through the Pacific Northwest. More on that in the long term section.

LONG TERM. Tuesday through Sunday.

A deep trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will be the primary driver of our weather for much of the week ahead. South to southwest wind will increase ahead of the cold front associated with the trough on Tuesday. The strongest wind will be across San Bernardino County and Southern Clark and Mohave Counties. While fuels remain dry, wind should remain below Red Flag Criteria and the windiest areas coincide with where the highest moisture resides, reducing fire weather concerns. A strong shortwave trough moving through the main trough will bring a chance of rain to Lincoln County and the Arizona Strip in northern Mohave County late Tuesday. Here is where the forecast gets more tricky. The airmass behind the cold front is a bit cooler than the air to the south. This drives the cold front to a degree, but with the loss of forcing due to the shortwave moving out, the front will slow before it reaches the southern portions of the CWA, including Las Vegas. This could greatly affect forecast temperatures for Wednesday. For now, I have kept cooler temperatures in Las Vegas and some areas to the south for Wednesday, on the order of 10 degrees below normal, but should the front stall and come through later in the evening, high temperatures will remain near normal for Wednesday. A weaker, reinforcing shortwave will move in Wednesday night pushing the cooler temperatures in and bringing a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to Mohave County Wednesday and Thursday afternoon before a ridge of high pressure pushes in from the west bringing drier conditions and warming temperatures back to seasonal normal by the weekend.

AVIATION. For McCarran . Winds will become southeasterly this afternoon for a period before gusty southwest winds develop between 23Z and 01Z. There is still some uncertainty on when this switch to the southwest will occur, but they will be established by sunset, and then remain in the 8 to 10 kt range overnight. Winds will remain predominately southwest on Tuesday with gustiness becoming more prevalent during the late morning hours and continuing through the afternoon. No operationally significant cloud cover is expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California . Breezy south to southwesterly winds with gusts to 20 kts are likely at most TAF sits this afternoon and evening except KDAG where gusts to 25 kts are expected. Most sites will continue to see breezy west to southwest winds again on Tuesday, except KBIH where northerly winds are forecast. KBIH will also continue to see MVFR conditions into the early afternoon hours before gusty westerly winds should help to clear out the smoke currently over the terminal. Some additional smoke is likely in the Owens Valley again tonight, but it is not expected to be as thick as this morning. Otherwise, no operationally significant cloud cover is expected over area terminals through the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

SHORT TERM . Morgan LONG TERM . Berc AVIATION . Planz

For more forecast information . see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mercury, Desert Rock Airport, NV15 mi34 minN 04.00 miOvercast with Haze80°F38°F22%1007 hPa
Nellis AFB - Indian Springs Auxiliary Airfield, NV21 mi29 minE 510.00 miFair80°F52°F38%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDRA

Wind History from DRA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4CalmW7SW7N6E73CalmE6E4NW5E5334SW6SW13
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1 day ago3N5N43N6CalmE5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW3SW3W7
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2 days agoE6CalmN6E4SE5E4NE4E3E5E4E3CalmS3SW6SW10SW9--SW11SW9
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G15
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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