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FXUS64 KLZK 051126 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 626 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mid and high clouds were increasing in coverage across AR this morning. This cloud cover was associated with a potent but compact upper level shortwave moving towards AR. Regional WSR 88D radars depicted an expansive area of convection already ongoing over portions of LA/TX/OK. Predawn temperatures were hovering in the 60s.

Today, the aforementioned shortwave will track NEwrd across the state. At the surface, an area of low pressure will also track NE across NW AR beneath the shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms will build into the state through the day. High temperatures will warm somewhat, but not by a significant margin owing to abundant cloud cover and precipitation. Temperatures should reach the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. Dew point temperatures should remain in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Assessing the forecast environment for early afternoon shows SBCAPE values could range from 1000-2500 J/Kg with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/Kg. SRH at both 0-1 Km and 0-3 Km should be around 100 m2/s2 or less and 150 m2/s2 or less, respectively. EBWD generally less than 20 Kts. Given this environment, defined by high CAPE low shear, pulse severe weather could/would be supported. This would entail an isolated large hail and damaging winds threat with the strongest of storms.
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage from the SW later this evening as the system moves into the OH Valley.

On Monday, a weak upper level disturbance will move across the region, bringing rain chances back to the region. This is thanks to persistent SWrly flow aloft keeping the weather pattern active. Rain chances do not appear as great as today, nonetheless this activity may continue into Monday night. High temperatures on Monday should be a touch warmer, with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Total rainfall through the short term should generally be around an inch or less.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The extended period will start off with a large storm system wobbling from the northern Plains into upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The system will drag a cold front toward Arkansas on Tuesday, but the front will likely stall just north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.

South of the front, above to well above normal temperatures are in the forecast on Tuesday. Afternoon CAPE values from 2000 to 3000+ J/kg seem reasonable, but there will not be much in the way of forcing other than the boundary and daytime heating. Given this, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, a few of which will be severe. Large hail/damaging wind will be the main concerns.

There is more to worry about on Wednesday. Surface low pressure will form along the aforementioned front in the southern Plains, and track toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The front will make headway into the state late in the afternoon and after dark, and will trigger scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms.
CAPE values will be higher than on Tuesday, and there will be more shear. All modes of severe weather are in play.

The front will be in central/southern Arkansas on Thursday, so hit/miss showers and rumbles of thunder will linger. As the big system to the north wobbles to the east, the flow aloft will become northwest, and this will drive the front toward the Gulf Coast.
Cooler/drier air will follow the front, and this will be realized to end the period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

SHRA/TSRA will overspread the state from SW to NE beginning early/mid-morning, continuing through much of the day. MVFR conds are expected to prevail, with IFR possible around heavier convection. Precip should come to an end late in the TAF period from the SW but lowered CIGs will linger a bit longer associated with low-level stratus surrounding the surface low. Winds will be fairly light at around 10 knts or less out of the S/SE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 74 64 82 69 / 90 80 60 40 Camden AR 77 64 83 68 / 90 40 40 20 Harrison AR 69 60 80 65 / 90 50 30 60 Hot Springs AR 73 63 81 67 / 90 50 30 40 Little Rock AR 74 66 83 70 / 90 60 40 30 Monticello AR 79 67 85 70 / 90 50 30 10 Mount Ida AR 72 62 81 67 / 100 40 40 40 Mountain Home AR 71 61 80 66 / 90 70 40 50 Newport AR 78 65 83 69 / 90 70 50 40 Pine Bluff AR 76 66 84 69 / 90 60 40 20 Russellville AR 72 63 82 67 / 90 50 30 50 Searcy AR 75 63 82 67 / 90 70 50 40 Stuttgart AR 77 67 83 70 / 90 70 50 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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