Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Del Rey Oaks, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 2:31 PM PDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 5:19AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 216 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of rain this evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft. Rain. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 216 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 19 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... An approaching cold front will move across the waters between this evening and tomorrow morning. Winds have become southerly and are gradually strengthening across the waters. Latest guidance suggests gale force gusts are likely ahead of the front this evening through the overnight period for the northern waters and into the northern san francisco bay. These strongest winds are anticipated just ahead of the front late this evening through the overnight period. Steep to very steep wind waves of 8 to 12 feet are possible with these strongest winds and are hazardous for small craft vessels. Winds will gradually diminish on Wednesday, but remain southerly as yet another wet system approaches. Otherwise, a moderate northwest to west swell will persist in the waters through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Del Rey Oaks, CA
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location: 36.58, -121.86     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 192104 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 204 PM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably cool and unsettled weather conditions continue through the upcoming weekend. The first of a series of storms arrives tonight providing beneficial rain to most of the area with a good push of wind. A second similar strength system arrives Thursday into Friday. A more potent storm system looks to arrive late in the upcoming weekend with more widespread rainfall.

DISCUSSION. as of 02:00 PM PDT Tuesday . The first in a series of storms will impact the Bay Area beginning this evening and linger until storm number two arrive later in the week. KMUX radar has been switched to precip mode as a few showers are already showing up over the northern outer waters. The latest timing is trending a little slower than precip forecasts with the onset of rain for the Bay Area. Rain chances increase early this evening over the North Bay, but even more likely by 8-11 PM. Once the rain does finally move in it will progress southward before stalling over the Bay Area. The heaviest rainfall still appears to be with the leading edge of the precip tonight over the North Bay. Will have to watch this closely as a few models put rainfall rates near critical levels for debris flow (2020 burn areas). Enough dynamics will be possible with the initial fropa that a thunderstorm or two will be possible over the northern waters (less than 20 pct). Last but not least, a potentially bigger impact with the first system are the winds. Latest hi-res models show a robust low level jet taking aim at the coastal waters, coastal North Bay, and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. The mix down potential is pretty high with gusts in the 35-45 mph range. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the North Bay Coast/Valleys, San Francisco Peninsula Coast, and Bay Shoreline this evening/overnight.

The stalled boundary will waver and slowly drift northward Wednesday into Thursday. Given the lingering boundary and persistent moisture feed off the Pacific scattered showers and periods of rain will continue. Rainfall totals Tonight through Thursday afternoon: N Bay Mts 2.5-4.0", N Bay Valleys, 1-2", SF Bay and Santa Cruz Mts 0.5-1.5", Santa Clara Valley and southward less than 0.25". Far interior Monterey/San Benito may see little to no rainfall.

System number two begins to merge with the stalled boundary late Thursday into Friday. System number is more progressive and doesn't stall like the first front. Rain initially develops over the North Bay Thursday night before moving S and E through day Friday. Rain will also end abruptly from N to S behind the front during the day as well. Given the progressive nature of the front rainfall amounts will be a little less. May even see a break in the precip Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon before system number three arrives.

System number three, likely the biggest of the bunch, will move toward the region Saturday night. Rain chances will increase through the day on Sunday, but the bigger push of tropical moisture will occur later Sunday into Monday. Instead of trying to nail down a specific model winner from a deterministic output it's better to leverage ensembles and probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, our messaging hasn't changed that much. The first notable Atmospheric River of the season will impact the region Sunday into Monday. That being said, some of the deterministic output for Sunday night is eye opening with impressive 6 hour rainfall amounts. AR Model output is also off the chart (not sure if that seems real yet). Those higher end bullseyes have been shifting from run to run and is further support by WPC Cluster analysis. Simply put, exact details are hard to nail down this far out, but easier to say solid rain will impact the region. We still have several days to fine tune the details with the AR. Current rainfall amounts with system three: N Bay and all coastal mountains3.0-5.5", elsewhere 1.0-3.0". There will likely be some rain shadowing.

Some lingering precip will be possible through the middle of next week.

Please follow the forecast as details become more clear over the next few days.


AVIATION. as of 10:55 AM PDT Tuesday . For the 18z TAFs. Satellite imagery depicts approaching storm system and increasing high clouds with predominately VFR conditions this morning, aside from some lingering VLIFR/LIFR fog/stratus in the Sonoma area near KSTS. Winds are predominately light and southerly, except locally breezy through favored SE oriented valleys, such as near KSNS in the Salinas Valley.

Cold frontal boundary expected to arrive and transition through the area late tonight into early Wednesday, and with that, bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, gusty southerly winds, LLWS, potential thunderstorms, MVFR cigs & visbys, and wet run ways.

Overall, confidence is moderate at best in terms of timing of the frontal passage as well as precise wind directions and speeds. Model to model confidence is fairly low in terms of wind speed and direction, but sufficient to say predominately S-SE winds will prevail, peaking at around 10-20kt, with gusts up to 20-30kt possible. No significant wind shift to the W or NW is expected in the wake of the front as additional frontal boundaries will pass over the coming days. Predominately southerly winds persist beyond tonights initial cold front.

Finally, a S-SSE low level wind jet of 30-45 knots has been modeled by most near term models, descending as low as 500-1000 feet overnight and strongest at around 1500-2000 feet. This will bring a threat of LLWS to most terminals overnight. Models are also showing some instability with the frontal passage, mainly over the waters and over the North Bay coast. Therefore, there is a remote chance of a thunderstorm or two.

Vicinity of KSFO . Light winds this morning before S/SE winds increase to 10+ kts after 21Z, as our next system approaches the area. Models and guidance show stronger southerly wind gusts possible this evening and overnight (~20-30 kt). Rain looks to arrive ~08z along with lowering cigs and visbys. A S-SSE low level jet at 500-2000 feet AGL will result in LLWS overnight into early Wednesday morning. No significant wind shift towards the W or NW in the wake of the front. Instead, winds remain southerly due to additional storm systems arriving later in the week.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . VFR today with high clouds beginning to move in to Monterey Bay this evening ahead of the incoming frontal system. Moderate southerly winds at SNS currently that will veer around to be out of the NW this afternoon. Winds in MRY to be more southwesterly as the afternoon progresses. MVFR CIGs with lower clouds coming in. VCSH entering the Monterey Bay late tonight ~09z. Light rain forecasted for MRY terminal ~12-13z. Will continue to monitor and updated TAFs with the timing of the potential rain.

MARINE. as of 10:41 AM PDT Tuesday . Winds have transitioned and become southerly ahead of an approaching storm system this morning. These southerly winds are forecast to strengthen through the day, peaking overnight and into tomorrow morning. Gusty conditions with periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected to accompany the front as it moves across the waters this evening into tomorrow morning. Peak wind gusts in the northern outer waters will approach and exceed gale force for several hours, thus a gale force warning is in effect. In addition, these gusty winds will generate steep waves resulting in hazardous seas, particularly for smaller vessels. Winds will gradually diminish on Wednesday, but remain southerly as yet another wet system approaches. Mixed seas persist with a moderate northwest swell and a weak embedded southerly swell. The main northwest swell will shift more westerly by mid week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. Wind Advisory . CAZ006-505-506-508-509 SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 PM SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 PM SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM GLW . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM GLW . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM GLW . SF Bay from 9 PM until 3 AM GLW . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 9 PM until 3 AM GLW . Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 PM until 3 AM



PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: DRP/SMM MARINE: DRP

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEYC1 2 mi56 min N 7G7 56°F 58°F1015.8 hPa
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 4 mi36 min 58°F4 ft
46092 - MBM1 15 mi77 min ESE 1.9 56°F 57°F1015.9 hPa (-1.2)
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 16 mi42 min 0 57°F 49°F
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 21 mi36 min 57°F6 ft
46269 26 mi62 min 55°F 56°F4 ft
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 27 mi36 min 58°F5 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 32 mi32 min SSE 7.8G12 56°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA1 mi38 minNW 610.00 miFair63°F49°F60%1016.8 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA14 mi39 minWNW 710.00 miFair70°F42°F37%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRY

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W8NW7W8W4S3S4S4S4S4S5E6E6E4E3E6E3S30SW6N3N5N3NW6
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S6S5S3S4S5S6SW5S4S5S3S5SW5SW4--NW8NW5W76
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SW7N3E7E3E6E6E4E5E4E5SE3E3SE3E5N3E3NE35S13S9SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California
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Monterey
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM PDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:24 AM PDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM PDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM PDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:56 AM PDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM PDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:17 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:14 PM PDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:53 PM PDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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