Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middles, KY

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 6:58PM Friday October 15, 2021 9:49 PM EDT (01:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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location: 36.66, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 160030 AAA AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 830 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2021

23Z sfc analysis shows a potent cold front moving through western Kentucky with strong to severe storms along and just ahead of it. Locally some bands of convection have been able to develop in the small to moderate instability pool well ahead of the boundary, but for the most part not enough to become full blown thunderstorms for eastern Kentucky. That will change late this evening and into the overnight when the actual front presses into the area bringing a sustained round of showers and embedded storms. In the meantime, temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s while dewpoints are also elevated in the mid to upper 60s most places. Winds are generally from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts in the west up to 20 mph. Per the CAMs and radar trends, have updated the forecast to include the latest frontal pcpn timing and deal with the nuisance convection well out ahead of it. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 518 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2021

A strong cold front is currently making it's way into KY late this afternoon, and will continue to move eastward, traversing the JKL CWA during the overnight hours, and exiting by early Saturday. The front and associated line of convection (along with some of the strongest storms) are currently located across western and portions of north-central KY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have also developed ahead of the main line, and are impacting the western and northern portions of our CWA, as well as portions of central KY. Instability is decent, between 1,000 and 1,500 J/kg, with reasonably steep low level lapse rates. The biggest concern still looks to be the inverted V shape of the sounding throughout the late afternoon, which would indicate the potential for strong winds aloft potentially mixing down to the surface, causing strong to potentially severe wind gusts.

As the actual front nears during the overnight hours, instability will remain, but will become more elevated in nature, as llvl lapse rates decrease with lowering temperatures. A 850mb low level jet will also set up overnight near the front, which may help enhance some activity, but the general trend in the models has been for this jet to decrease a bit with each run. With all that, do expect rain and thunderstorms to continue along the front into the overnight hours, but the likelihood of severe activity will continue to diminish. Instead, we can expect more in the way of showers with some embedded elevated thunderstorms and the potential for some gusty conditions in some of these storms.

Once the front moves over, soundings suggest a quick wind shift to the NW. However, it may take some time for the drier air to work in, especially in the mid levels. The saturated nature of the sounding suggest that rain chances may continue through possibly 12Z, before quickly mixing out from west to east heading into the daytime hours. Skies should then be mostly clear to clear for the remainder of the period. Increased winds aloft are also expected to persist during the day just behind the departing system, with breezy surface conditions also possible given the good mixing in place. This mixing will cease as we head into the overnight hours, thanks to good radiational cooling, and a strong llvl inversion setting up. This may lead to some ridge/valley splits in temperatures as well. Can't rule out some valleys dropping into the mid and upper 30s, which could lead to the potential for our first frost development of the year. Even with the sharp drop in temps, dew points will remain substantially lower, so the set up doesn't seem conducive to fog development. Kept mention of fog out of the forecast for this period as a result.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2021

The upper level pattern starts out with a trough over the eastern portion of North America with a large trough over the central CONUS and extending northward into central Canada. Another disturbance sits over the eastern Pacific and will continue to press into the west coast. The upper level pattern will show general eastward progression throughout the long term period and will create a more amplified pattern. By late Monday through Wednesday, upper level ridging will be positioned over the southwest and extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the southern Plains with ridging extending northeast through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic. This high pressure will generally move eastward as a low pressure system drops southeast from Canada ad tracks through the upper Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this system will be draped southward and will impact the Commonwealth toward the end of the next work week.

Sensible weather will start off quiet Sunday through early Wednesday night before showers enter the forecast as the cold front approaches the area. Highs Will start off below average, in the low to mid 60s across eastern Kentucky, Sunday and Monday, with low dropping into the low 40s and even some upper 30s in the deeper valleys. Some frost is possible both of these nights but chances will continue to be updated as new data becomes available. Mostly clear conditions will also allow for plenty of sunshine and warming during the day and some ridge to valley splits over night. Highs gradually moderate back into the low 70s Tuesday through Thursday as winds shift from northwest to southwest flow, allowing advection of some warmer air into the area. Cloud cover will increase these days as increasing moisture enters the area but over all conditions would be pleasant. Another cold front approaches the Commonwealth from the northwest Wednesday night which will bring the next chance for some rain showers and a modest cool down Friday.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2021

A strong cold front is approaching eastern Kentucky from the west this evening and will pass across the TAF sites during the overnight hours, before exiting by early morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be around the area ahead of the main convective line, so kept some VCTS in the TAFs for this. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are then expected closer to and just ahead of the actual frontal boundary. CIGS and VIS will deteriorate into IFR conditions by late overnight, especially along the front. Low CIGS, and some rain will then likely persist after the frontal passage, until the morning hours, exiting from west to east. Drier air then filters in on gusty NW winds throughout the day, quickly clearing skies out by early afternoon. Look for the southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts this evening switch to northwest at around 10 kts late tonight and then continuing through the day Saturday with gusts up to between 15 and 20 kts possible.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

UPDATE . GREIF SHORT TERM . JMW LONG TERM . BATZ AVIATION . JMW/GREIF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middlesboro, Middlesboro-Bell County Airport, KY3 mi75 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F67°F84%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A6

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Last 24hr0000000000000S7S7SE3S9S10S5S6S50SW30
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