Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
May 3, 2024 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM Moonset 2:27 PM |
Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 031459 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1059 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast through the next 7 days.
- Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the next 7 days.
UPDATE
Issued at 1058 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Updated minor modifications to PoPs and QPF for the remainder of today into this evening. Other changes were minor. Blended in latest temperature observations into the forecast to depict the cooler current temperatures where rain is falling.
UPDATE Issued at 822 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Expanded low-end PoPs slightly eastward this morning to account for isolated shower activity developing where PoPs < 15. Also raised QPF slightly especially this afternoon and mainly along the westernmost tier or two of counties. Otherwise, blended in hourly temperatures to the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Made a quick early update to the forecast grids. Based on obs from the past few hours, temperatures have simply not fallen off as far as originally forecast, especially in our normally cooler eastern valleys. Therefore, modified this mornings lows to reflect the latest obs trends. Will leave the zone forecast text product as is to continue covering early morning shower activity. Another update will be needed in the next hour or two to remove the pre- first period and make any further necessary updates.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
The 6Z surface chart out of the WPC showed a large occluded low in place over northwestern Minnesota, with an occluded front extending southeast from it. A cold front and semi-stationary boundaries were snaking their way southwest and east from the triple point with the occluded boundary, with each boundary extending out to the east coast and beyond and out to western Nevada. Waves of low pressure were also seen at various locations from Utah to southwest Texas, to Indiana, and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure was in place over portions of the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, with large subtropical low in place off the southeastern CONUS.
A complex pattern in place across the country to be sure to start off this Friday. We will see showers and thunderstorms moving through our area from time to time today through Saturday, as the occluded low moves eastward into the Great Lakes and eventually into central New England. As the low moves off to the east or northeast, the surface boundaries extending south from it will move through the region, and will spark showers and storms across area. Based on current model data, it is clear that there will be instability and moisture in place to fuel showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky, but uncertainty exists as to exactly where storms will fire and how extensive the rain will be. Some models have been showing few if any showers and storms across eastern Kentucky over the next couple of days, while others have fairly extensive coverage of precipitation. There is also some doubt revolving around how well defined any boundaries will be as they move through our area. That all being said, with a good influx of moisture and instability into the region, we expect scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms to fire and move through the area from time to time today through Saturday, with the afternoon and early evening hours being most active due to peak heating and maximized instability. It does appear that Saturday will be a bit more active than today, as the model data is showing quite a bit more instability present than today, especially late Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap today and Saturday. Enough decoupling may occur late Friday night to allow for a small ridge valley split, especially in the northeast where our normally cooler valleys may fall off into the mid 50s. As far as weather hazards go, we are not expecting anything of major concern at this time. As always, any thunderstorms we see the next couple of days will be capable of producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours that could lead to ponding of water on roadways or short lived minor nuisance flooding.
Confidences is high that most locations will see rain today through Saturday, its a matter of how widespread will thunderstorms be, especially today with less instability expected.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
A rather wet long term period should be in store. However, it looks overall rather short on details/specifics. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest, while low level flow will be from the south southwest off the gulf.
This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow, it will not have much momentum and is not likely to make a clean passage during the period (possibly just beyond the current long term period). This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s most of the time. The main drivers for precip will be convection associated with diurnal heating cycles and mid/upper level waves. While the diurnal cycle is simple, weak upper level features are much more problematic. The most obvious and predictable feature at this point is a shortwave trough which all models have approaching on Monday. The highest POP (70% area wide) of the long term period coincides with this.
The remainder of the 12 hour periods have POPs mainly in the 40-60% range.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Scattered rain showers have begun moving into our southwestern counties early this morning, with SME and LOZ seeing the first rain. VCSH is being used to handle the early morning activity, but it appears that enough thunderstorms will fire by early this afternoon to warrant inserting VCTS into each TAF, beginning at 18Z for SME and starting at 23Z or so at JKL and SJS. The best time for any storms will be this afternoon into early this evening during peak heating. Once the sun goes down, the storms should become more isolated with time with rain showers being the dominant precipitation mode. Rain will become more widespread as the day wears on, with numerous light to moderate rain showers expected this afternoon through late this evening. Any storm could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with brief periods of MVFR VSBYs. MVFR CIGs will also be possible at times today into this evening during peak thunderstorm activity.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1059 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast through the next 7 days.
- Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the next 7 days.
UPDATE
Issued at 1058 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Updated minor modifications to PoPs and QPF for the remainder of today into this evening. Other changes were minor. Blended in latest temperature observations into the forecast to depict the cooler current temperatures where rain is falling.
UPDATE Issued at 822 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Expanded low-end PoPs slightly eastward this morning to account for isolated shower activity developing where PoPs < 15. Also raised QPF slightly especially this afternoon and mainly along the westernmost tier or two of counties. Otherwise, blended in hourly temperatures to the forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Made a quick early update to the forecast grids. Based on obs from the past few hours, temperatures have simply not fallen off as far as originally forecast, especially in our normally cooler eastern valleys. Therefore, modified this mornings lows to reflect the latest obs trends. Will leave the zone forecast text product as is to continue covering early morning shower activity. Another update will be needed in the next hour or two to remove the pre- first period and make any further necessary updates.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
The 6Z surface chart out of the WPC showed a large occluded low in place over northwestern Minnesota, with an occluded front extending southeast from it. A cold front and semi-stationary boundaries were snaking their way southwest and east from the triple point with the occluded boundary, with each boundary extending out to the east coast and beyond and out to western Nevada. Waves of low pressure were also seen at various locations from Utah to southwest Texas, to Indiana, and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure was in place over portions of the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, with large subtropical low in place off the southeastern CONUS.
A complex pattern in place across the country to be sure to start off this Friday. We will see showers and thunderstorms moving through our area from time to time today through Saturday, as the occluded low moves eastward into the Great Lakes and eventually into central New England. As the low moves off to the east or northeast, the surface boundaries extending south from it will move through the region, and will spark showers and storms across area. Based on current model data, it is clear that there will be instability and moisture in place to fuel showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky, but uncertainty exists as to exactly where storms will fire and how extensive the rain will be. Some models have been showing few if any showers and storms across eastern Kentucky over the next couple of days, while others have fairly extensive coverage of precipitation. There is also some doubt revolving around how well defined any boundaries will be as they move through our area. That all being said, with a good influx of moisture and instability into the region, we expect scattered to numerous showers and scattered storms to fire and move through the area from time to time today through Saturday, with the afternoon and early evening hours being most active due to peak heating and maximized instability. It does appear that Saturday will be a bit more active than today, as the model data is showing quite a bit more instability present than today, especially late Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap today and Saturday. Enough decoupling may occur late Friday night to allow for a small ridge valley split, especially in the northeast where our normally cooler valleys may fall off into the mid 50s. As far as weather hazards go, we are not expecting anything of major concern at this time. As always, any thunderstorms we see the next couple of days will be capable of producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours that could lead to ponding of water on roadways or short lived minor nuisance flooding.
Confidences is high that most locations will see rain today through Saturday, its a matter of how widespread will thunderstorms be, especially today with less instability expected.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
A rather wet long term period should be in store. However, it looks overall rather short on details/specifics. Prevailing large scale flow aloft will be persistent from the west southwest, while low level flow will be from the south southwest off the gulf.
This pattern of warm/moist advection will favor precip. A wavering frontal boundary will approach from the northwest at times, but being largely parallel to the upper level flow, it will not have much momentum and is not likely to make a clean passage during the period (possibly just beyond the current long term period). This will leave us in a modestly humid air mass with surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s most of the time. The main drivers for precip will be convection associated with diurnal heating cycles and mid/upper level waves. While the diurnal cycle is simple, weak upper level features are much more problematic. The most obvious and predictable feature at this point is a shortwave trough which all models have approaching on Monday. The highest POP (70% area wide) of the long term period coincides with this.
The remainder of the 12 hour periods have POPs mainly in the 40-60% range.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
Scattered rain showers have begun moving into our southwestern counties early this morning, with SME and LOZ seeing the first rain. VCSH is being used to handle the early morning activity, but it appears that enough thunderstorms will fire by early this afternoon to warrant inserting VCTS into each TAF, beginning at 18Z for SME and starting at 23Z or so at JKL and SJS. The best time for any storms will be this afternoon into early this evening during peak heating. Once the sun goes down, the storms should become more isolated with time with rain showers being the dominant precipitation mode. Rain will become more widespread as the day wears on, with numerous light to moderate rain showers expected this afternoon through late this evening. Any storm could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with brief periods of MVFR VSBYs. MVFR CIGs will also be possible at times today into this evening during peak thunderstorm activity.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Airport Reports
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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