Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:00 AM   Moonset 4:52 PM

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FXUS64 KOUN 051517 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast was updated to keep rain lingering a bit longer east of I-35 until early afternoon. A MCV signature east of Guthrie is likely providing sufficient lift to have the light rain drift eastward more slowly than previously expected. Nevertheless, amounts are expected to be lower than one-tenth inch per hour.



SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across central and eastern Oklahoma this morning/early afternoon. As this occurs, most of the heavy rainfall and storms will end west of Interstate 35 during the early morning. Rainfall rates with the heavier storms through the morning are expected to average around 1 to 1.5 inches, which will result in minor flooding and/or ponding of water on roads. With the rain moving east this morning, western parts of a Flood Watch will be cancelled by 12Z (perhaps I-35 and west).

Despite the thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma and a larger one across central and eastern Texas, rich Gulf moisture will remain close to our south. Heating this afternoon should result in weak instability, but rather weak boundary layer flow will limit shower or thunderstorm development. The exception may be central and south central Oklahoma where a deeper moisture profile is expected.
Brief shortwave ridging will spread across the southern Plains this evening and overnight, in advance of a strong trough moving through the inter-Mountain West.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Models are in general agreement with lifting a strong trough across western parts of the central and northern Plains on Monday. Although the trough will lift well to our north, decent height falls, and the exit region of a strong upper jet will overspread roughly the northern half of Oklahoma Monday afternoon/evening.

Unsure how many storms will develop along a dryline, but it seems apparent that some will. Instability, 3000+ J/kg, and NAM hodographs support the risk of tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.
Supercells that can develop are expected to move northeast around 35 to 40 mph, and will likely persist well into the evening hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front that is expected to move into northern and western Oklahoma late Monday. A capping inversion and drier air across parts of western Oklahoma and western northern Texas, may limit development on the front.

Northwest to west winds will advect drier air into the southern Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to result in dry weather Tuesday. A stronger cold front is expected to move across Oklahoma and western north Texas on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in south central and southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.
Rather high instability and decent shear will support the risk of large hail and damaging winds.

After the front on Wednesday, mainly dry weather is expected across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas through at least Friday.
The exception may be far southeast Oklahoma Thursday. Another system may move close enough to the southern Plains to increase rain chances late Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mostly rain with a few embedded storms possible will be affecting our terminals across all of central through southeast Oklahoma through 17Z which could reduce those terminals to IFR for short periods. Although our terminals across western Oklahoma and western north Texas are dry, very low stratus may reduce those terminals to IFR conditions as well through 18Z. After 18Z, expecting stratus to lift a bit improving terminals to MVFR conditions and could see a few hours of VFR conditions by 21Z before returning back to MVFR conditions after 01Z. As far as surface winds, high surface pressure across the Central Plains settling into the Midwest Region will be veering winds northeasterly up to 10 kts then veering more southerly after 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 71 60 79 60 / 70 10 50 30 Hobart OK 74 60 83 53 / 10 10 40 10 Wichita Falls TX 75 63 83 60 / 10 0 30 10 Gage OK 73 57 86 51 / 10 10 30 0 Ponca City OK 69 60 79 57 / 80 10 70 60 Durant OK 74 63 81 69 / 70 10 40 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ090.

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