Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 4:08 PM

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FXUS66 KHNX 042014 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 114 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024



KEY MESSAGES
1. Moderate to major winter storm impacts are expected in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet this afternoon and tonight due to blowing snow and snow amounts of 12 to 24 inches.

2. Damaging wind gusts are anticipated in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through Sunday evening.

3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada below 6,000 feet and adjacent foothills this afternoon.

4. A warming trend is expected Monday through at least Friday.
There is 40-50% chance of the San Joaquin Valley reaching highs of at least 90*F next Friday.

DISCUSSION
A storm system continues to descend upon Central California, brining late season valley rain and high elevation snow. The precipitation event is starting this afternoon and forecast to last through Sunday morning. Snow levels start roughly in the 7000 to 8000 foot range at the start of the snow event for this afternoon and then fall through the evening. Most of the snow is forecast to fall above 6,000 feet, which is where the Winter Storm Warning continues in the Sierra Nevada. Snow levels tomorrow morning are forecast to fall below 4,000 feet, however, an overwhelming majority of the precipitation will have fallen by then. In other words, the snow impacts at the lower elevations of the Sierra Nevada and foothills will be limited, with much higher impacts above 6,000 feet. WSSI continues to show moderate to major Winter Storm impacts, mainly due to snowfall rates and snow amounts. Snow totals through tomorrow morning above 6,000 feet are forecast to be between 12 and 24 inches depending on location. NBM guidance shows the precipitation ending for most of the forecast area by late morning Sunday.

Strong winds are also forecast to accompany this storm system.
Strong onshore gradients and jet will lead to very strong winds, especially in the wind-prone portions of Kern County. A High Wind Warning will be in effect for the lee side slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains from 2 PM this afternoon through 11 PM Sunday evening. Monday through the rest of next week will be more in line with what the Central California area sees in May.
Warmer conditions influenced by a ridge of high pressure with dry weather forecast. In fact, blended model guidance is getting more confident in afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90*F next Friday and Saturday. Here are NBM probabilities of afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 90*F on Friday for select locations across the San Joaquin Valley:

Merced: 36% Madera: 41% Fresno: 46% Hanford: 46% Bakersfield: 56%


AVIATION
MVFR or lower conditions are likely in and near precipitation this afternoon and this evening. Mountain obscurations are expected in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains tonight.
VFR conditions resume across the San Joaquin Valley after 06z Sunday.



AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339.
Winter Storm Warning above 6000 feet until 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ323-326>330.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,