Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point Arena, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 3:42 PM PST (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:56AMMoonset 2:55PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Arena, CA
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location: 36.95, -126.32     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 302245 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 245 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Offshore winds in the hills tonight will keep overnight temperatures mild in the hills leading to another day of above normal highs on Wednesday. Continued mild Thursday with a modest cooling trend into the weekend but temperatures still above seasonable normals and dry through the weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 02:25 PM PST Tuesday . Mostly sunny and clear skies over our CWA this afternoon. Current temperatures are within a few degrees of where they were this time yesterday as we look at another warm day across the Bay Area and Central CA. The clear skies and warm weather are thanks to the high pressure ridging over NorCal that has previously been discussed. It will persist tomorrow, when we expect our warmest temperatures this week, then the ridge weakens as we move into a gradual cooling trend into the weekend.

We are expecting offshore flow to impact us this evening and overnight, especially across the North Bay hills. However, this is not considered a strong, impactful offshore wind event. Gusts will likely be moderate ranging 25-40 mph with the gusts near 40 mph limited to our higher peaks in the North and East Bays. This offshore flow should keep things drier in our region which should mean that we won't see patchy dense fog in the morning as we have the past few days.

Looking at tomorrow's high temperatures, as said in the previous AFD, we went higher than our NBM guidance since the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, shows Central CA in the 80th to 90th percentile for max temperatures. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to range between 17 to near 20 degrees C which is pretty warm for this time of year. The Bay Area will see widespread 70s tomorrow putting daytime highs around 8-15 degrees above normal . some places may be warmer if the offshore flow mixes down into the valley locations, but the inversion will hinder this possibility. We will likely see widespread low 80s for Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey counties which puts daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal.

Beyond Wednesday, the 850 mb temperatures show a gradual cooling which will translate to the surface. Expect a few degrees of cooling each day Thursday into the weekend as we return to widespread 60s to low 70s by Saturday.

The big question on a lot of people's minds is when will we see rain again. Latest guidance continues to hold off on any rain chances until around December 6 at the earliest. And even at that, the best chances are for the North Bay into SF area as an inside slider moves southward from the Pac NW into CA. If this comes to fruition, then it will likely be a "slight chance" event with light rain amounts. A tenth of an inch looks to be the highest potential total right now in the North Bay. Will continue to monitor the ensemble models to see if this trend of light rain by the end of the first week in December holds.

AVIATION. as of 10:00 AM PST Sunday . For the 18z TAFs. High pressure remains in control today with predominately light terrain driven winds and VFR conditions through the period. For this morning, a few slivers of fog are exiting the delta and pushing towards KSFO/KOAK and may cause intermittent issues there from 18-19Z. An increase in NE flow tonight will bring marginal low level wind shear concerns of 20-30kt and some drying of the boundary layer, reducing likelihood and coverage of fog (though not completely eliminating it for sheltered areas), though hazy conditions tomorrow morning are still probable. Somewhat breezy offshore upvalley/coastal gap winds possible in places such as the Salinas Valley tomorrow (see KSNS taf).

Vicinity of KSFO . A patchy of fog is exiting the delta and pushing towards KSFO as of 1745Z and may bring intermittent 1/2SM FG VV002 type conditions from 18-19Z. Otherwise, light terrain driven flow this morning (east) will become onshore 5-10kt by the late afternoon to early evening. Slight low level wind shear is possible overnight of 20-25kt from the NNE. Hazy conditions posbl tomorrow morning but dew point depression spread looks too wide to support much more.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . VFR through the TAF period. Breezy upvalley winds in the Salinas Valley overnight into Wednesday morning, ie 8-13kt with gusts to 15-20kt.

MARINE. as of 02:25 PM PST Tuesday . Locally breezy across the outer waters and coastal jets this afternoon and into the evening. Northerly winds will gradually subside tonight into tomorrow. Locally lighter offshore winds develop tomorrow out of the Golden Gate gap Wednesday. Meanwhile, a series of moderate period northwest swell prevails through the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . SF Bay from 3 AM SCA . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM



PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP

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