Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Capitola, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:32PM Friday October 15, 2021 8:02 PM PDT (03:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 234 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 234 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Light to moderate winds prevail through the weekend. Northwest winds will increase as a cold front arrives late Sunday into early Monday. A chance of light to moderate rain showers over the waters is possible with the incoming front. A moderate but weakening northwest swell prevails through the coming days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Capitola, CA
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location: 36.97, -121.94     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 160248 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 745 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. A weak frontal system will cool temperatures Sunday with a slight chance of light precipitation over the Bay Area and potentially even over the Central Coast. Even cooler, more unsettled weather conditions look possible through the latter half of next week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 07:45 PM PDT Friday .

NEAR TERM [Through Saturday].

GOES-WEST Visible Imagery picked up on the smoke plume associated with the Estrada Fire west of Gilroy between Morgan Hill and Watsonville earlier this afternoon, with reports of elevated smoke coming in from across the Central Coast and the South Bay. Will continue to monitor the smoke canopy as later HRRR-smoke runs pick up on the signature. Overall, was a hot and dry day across the entire Bay Area, with RH values struggling to get into the 20-30 percent range and many inland locations, particularly those above 1500 ft, hanging in the teens. The building mid-level ridge over California is only enhancing the hot and dry air mass in place, with many areas along the coast and bays (e.g. Santa Cruz, San Francisco, Oakland) reaching max temps ranging between the mid-70s to low 80s. Needless to say, those areas in our CWA above 1500 ft and in greater contact with the hot 850mb air mass experienced max temps in the mid 80s F, with some of our highest peaks approaching the 90 degree F mark.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Early Monday Morning].

Given the shortening days, diurnal cooling will help to drop many of our coastal sites back down into the low to mid 50s F. Inland valleys in the North Bay and down in Southern Monterey County will drop into the 40s F owing to greater diurnal cooling and valley cold-air pooling. As for the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, Santa Cruz Mountains, and essentially all elevated areas of the CWA over 1500 ft, the 850mb air mass will continue to heavily regulate the overnight environment. What this means for these areas is two fold: 1) warm overnight temps in the 60s F and 2, little to no overnight humidity recoveries. Thankfully, this air mass does not carry with it sufficient offshore flow to warrant extreme fire concerns, but given the latest fire and the critically dry fuels in our region, will be monitoring the environment closely. For the latest on active wildfires, be sure to contact your local authorities and CALFIRE when possible.

The hot and dry 850mb air mass associated with the mid-level ridge is on track to remain over the CWA through tomorrow afternoon. Given the lack of onshore flow, have progged a hot day for much of the coast and bays with max temps expected to range between the mid 70s to low 80s F. Inland areas are also progged to reach max temps that will be 3-5 degrees hotter than today's. A different environment is in store for the CWA come Sunday as the mid-level ridge exits towards the Great Basin, leaving behind a deep 543-545mb mid-level trough that will quickly encompass the West Coast. The latest GFS and EC deterministic solutions take the axis of this system into Northern California by Sunday afternoon, effectively returning onshore flow to the entire coastline between Point Mendocino to Point Conception and dramatically cooling off our coasts and bays. As a result, are progging max temps in the 60s for SF, Oakland, and Santa Cruz, while inland areas (e.g. Concord, Livermore, Napa) will struggle to reach the low 70s F. This shift in the pattern will effectively cut off the influence of the warm, dry 850mb air mass and replace it with return-flow from the PAC. The added synoptic-scale cold FROPA along the NorCal coastline will also offer us a chance for something we are in desperate need of: precipitation. Needless to say, the primary forcing associated with the divergent quadrant of the trough looks to remain well to the north of the Bay Area (e.g. Eureka, Southern Oregon) but some of the deterministic solutions have continued to track rain showers into portions of the North Bay. The latest forecast package hosts the most likely times for some showers to develop between Sunday morning across the North Bay to areas south of the Golden Gate by the afternoon. The catch with these chances is that synoptic-scale forcing will struggle to maintain these shower The greatest potential for measurable rainfall will be over the North Bay where around 0.10" will be possible. It should be noted that a blend of our short-range solutions suggests that upwards of 0.25" will be possible along the coastal ranges, with the caveat that early-morning drizzle adds to some of the finalized totals. The same blend of short- range solutions, in concert with the latest EC and GFS runs, signal that some of these showers may be influenced enough by localized orographic lift to survive down to Monterey Bay. This reach in the showers would result in some areas along the coast south of Santa Cruz to total a few hundredths of an inch, while the Santa Lucias could pick up by 0.10" by late Sunday night and into early Monday morning. Onshore winds are then progged to increase ahead of and in wake of the frontal boundary with breezy to gusty conditions expected near the coast, ridges, and peaks.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Next Sunday].

Upper-level wave energy is expected to train the West Coast through much of the upcoming week, with the latest Day 3-7 multi- model ensemble suggesting another mid-level trough spinning into the Northern California by Tuesday, keeping the entire region cool and introducing yet another FROPA to the Bay Area Tuesday night and into Wednesday. It should be noted that the latest EC and GEFS members are signaling a slightly more favorable environment for showers during that time-frame for Northern California. Nonetheless, our CWA looks to be at the tail-end of this synoptically-favorable environment, so still have large uncertainties as to what our potential rain totals may be from the mid-week disturbance. It should be noted that La Nina conditions have now officially redeveloped in the PAC, and so there is much uncertainty as to rain potential for the next couple of months. For now, the overall picture for next week is one with the potential for unsettled weather and cooler temps through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION. as of 04:31 PM PDT Friday . For the 00z TAFs. The forecast remains VFR through the TAF period. Onshore winds will be mostly light, except for coastal terminals staying breezy for the next two hours. Skies should remain clear with another seabreeze developing Saturday afternoon. Next cold front is forecast to arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.

Vicinity of KSFO . Winds will remain mostly light with breezy conditions in the afternoon. Clear skies and VFR.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . Skies will stay clear and VFR through the TAF. Winds are onshore and breezy before lightening after 03Z. Drainage winds will switch the direction to the south, with breezier overnight conditions in the Salinas Valley. Winds will switch back to onshore as the sea breeze develops Saturday afternoon.

MARINE. as of 02:34 PM PDT Friday . Light to moderate winds prevail through the weekend. Northwest winds will increase as a cold front arrives late Sunday into early Monday. A chance of light to moderate rain showers over the waters is possible with the incoming front. A moderate but weakening northwest swell prevails through the coming days.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. None.

PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz AVIATION: DK MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46269 6 mi33 min 57°F 57°F4 ft
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 14 mi33 min 0 57°F 50°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 15 mi78 min S 1.9 64°F 1020 hPa46°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi48 min E 5.8 59°F 57°F1017.2 hPa
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 24 mi37 min 59°F4 ft
MEYC1 25 mi87 min ESE 1.9G4.1 62°F 59°F1018.2 hPa
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 27 mi23 min NNW 9.7G12 59°F 58°F1018.1 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 28 mi37 min 59°F9 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 40 mi45 min W 1.9G2.9 67°F 1019 hPa
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 45 mi37 min 57°F8 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA8 mi70 minW 310.00 miFair73°F30°F20%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW40N4NW5NW4N4NW3N4N40NE300SE4SE40SE5--W8
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1 day agoE30E400N3N30N30N30NW30S300SW9SW9SW8S6SE3S3SW4
2 days agoNW30N3NE3N4N3N3N4NW3NW5N3NW3N40S33S6--SW8W8W10SW4E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay, California
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Santa Cruz
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:12 AM PDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM PDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM PDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:16 PM PDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:23 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:41 AM PDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:40 PM PDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:46 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:31 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:36 PM PDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:12 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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