Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA
May 5, 2024 6:03 AM EDT (10:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:33 AM Moonset 4:21 PM |
ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 339 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Through 7 am - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 339 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters later today, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.
a frontal boundary slowly lifts north through the local waters later today, with winds becoming more southerly. High pressure becomes centered well off the southeast coast on Monday, as a weakening cold front approaches from the ohio valley. That front stalls just north of the area Monday night and Tuesday, with a series of low pressure systems passing by, mainly to the north through Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 050755 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through Sunday night.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Early morning wx analysis indicates Friday's backdoor cold front now pushing back N as a warm front, draped across the southeastern portion of the FA as of 3am. This is evident not only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient across the area this morning. Latest obs show upper 60s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s and low 50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward, temps will remain stable in the SE and rise a few degrees elsewhere. Aloft, a weak shortwave is traveling across the region, aiding in the continuation of showers. Latest radar shows widespread, light precip W of I-95 and isolated- scattered showers elsewhere. Heavier showers near the RIC metro have dropped 1.0-1.5" of rain tonight, spurring a Flood Advisory just south of RIC. These heavier showers have weakened, though, and moved to the ENE.
Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front advancing N will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstorms today. Expect the highest coverage will stay in the piedmont through the morning, then expand to all areas W of the bay (~70% PoP) this afternoon. Coverage is then expected to decrease later in the evening and into tonight as the main axis of precip progresses E. Chnc PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean HRRR SCAPE)
means there will be a decent chance for thunder. Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Highs today will be in the mid- upper 70s in the SE and upper 60s-low 70s elsewhere. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the mid-60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week
- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions
Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the (fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as high as the upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid- upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
IFR CIGs still prevail at RIC late tonight with MVFR/VFR at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG. The backdoor cold front that crossed the area Friday will slowly lift back north as a warm front through the period. CIGs improve to MVFR (with occasional periods of VFR)
as winds become SE-SSE after the front moves north of a given terminal. It looks like IFR CIGs likely hang on until late morning at RIC. In addition, showers will once again overspread RIC tonight. Showers are likely at all terminals on Sun, with isolated- scattered tstms possible during the aftn/evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening.
A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.
Strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb) is centered across Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks slowly pushing N. E-SE winds prevail, but the wind speeds have generally been under-performing over the past 12 hrs and as such, have decided to cancel all remaining SCA headlines. Conditions today will still be less than ideal for boating as SE winds average 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt and waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Seas are 3-4ft.
The stationary front will continue to lift back N as a warm front later today, with winds becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt tonight, and then to the SSW by Monday. Winds will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The winds may increase a bit Thu- Fri as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Have extended a Coastal Flood Advisory for the northern Neck through Sunday night for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in this area through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide cycle. It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Off and on showers are expected to continue through Sunday night.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Early morning wx analysis indicates Friday's backdoor cold front now pushing back N as a warm front, draped across the southeastern portion of the FA as of 3am. This is evident not only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the temperature gradient across the area this morning. Latest obs show upper 60s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s and low 50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front continues northward, temps will remain stable in the SE and rise a few degrees elsewhere. Aloft, a weak shortwave is traveling across the region, aiding in the continuation of showers. Latest radar shows widespread, light precip W of I-95 and isolated- scattered showers elsewhere. Heavier showers near the RIC metro have dropped 1.0-1.5" of rain tonight, spurring a Flood Advisory just south of RIC. These heavier showers have weakened, though, and moved to the ENE.
Shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft as well as the front advancing N will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstorms today. Expect the highest coverage will stay in the piedmont through the morning, then expand to all areas W of the bay (~70% PoP) this afternoon. Coverage is then expected to decrease later in the evening and into tonight as the main axis of precip progresses E. Chnc PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of 600-700 J/KG (mean HRRR SCAPE)
means there will be a decent chance for thunder. Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Highs today will be in the mid- upper 70s in the SE and upper 60s-low 70s elsewhere. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the mid-60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain to start the week
- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid conditions
Mon and Tues mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will persist through the week. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in the (fairly weak) SW flow aloft plus a lee trough will lead to off and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the afternoon through late evening. Temps climb into the low 80s on Monday with dewpoints as high as the upper 60s. HRRR mean CAPE shows values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore, severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two. Highest coverage in precip on Mon looks to be across the south (roughly S of US-460) during the afternoon hours as of latest guidance. Tuesday is less certain, as models are still showing some disagreement regarding coverage and timing of precip. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the south of low 80s in the north. Lows both nights will be in the mid- upper 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above-normal temps Wednesday through Friday.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the week.
A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to mid 70s Sat.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...
IFR CIGs still prevail at RIC late tonight with MVFR/VFR at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG. The backdoor cold front that crossed the area Friday will slowly lift back north as a warm front through the period. CIGs improve to MVFR (with occasional periods of VFR)
as winds become SE-SSE after the front moves north of a given terminal. It looks like IFR CIGs likely hang on until late morning at RIC. In addition, showers will once again overspread RIC tonight. Showers are likely at all terminals on Sun, with isolated- scattered tstms possible during the aftn/evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night- Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sunday night should be mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening.
A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.
Strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb) is centered across Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a stationary front in vicinity of the NC Outer Banks slowly pushing N. E-SE winds prevail, but the wind speeds have generally been under-performing over the past 12 hrs and as such, have decided to cancel all remaining SCA headlines. Conditions today will still be less than ideal for boating as SE winds average 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt and waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Seas are 3-4ft.
The stationary front will continue to lift back N as a warm front later today, with winds becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt tonight, and then to the SSW by Monday. Winds will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The winds may increase a bit Thu- Fri as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger cold front.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Have extended a Coastal Flood Advisory for the northern Neck through Sunday night for widespread minor flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday morning.
The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in this area through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Statement continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide cycle. It still appears that other than locally moderate flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 8 sm | 68 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 30.12 | |
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 8 sm | 64 min | SSE 09G16 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 30.14 | |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 12 sm | 69 min | no data | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 30.13 | |
| KORF NORFOLK INTL,VA | 13 sm | 72 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 30.13 | |
| KPVG HAMPTON ROADS EXECUTIVE,VA | 13 sm | 67 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 30.14 | |
| KFAF FELKER AAF,VA | 15 sm | 68 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 30.09 | |
| KCPK CHESAPEAKE RGNL,VA | 22 sm | 28 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 30.14 | |
| KSFQ SUFFOLK EXECUTIVE,VA | 22 sm | 28 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 30.14 | |
| KNTU OCEANA NAS /APOLLO SOUCEK FIELD/,VA | 24 sm | 67 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 30.13 |
Newport News
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT 3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT 3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Newport News, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.5 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:59 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT 0.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 PM EDT 1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:25 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:59 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:21 AM EDT 0.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:47 PM EDT 1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:25 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.2 |
| 1 am |
| -1.4 |
| 2 am |
| -1.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.4 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Wakefield, VA,
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