Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrollton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:14PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:55 PM EDT (20:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:18PMMoonset 1:26PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 415 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming S 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 415 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system will move toward the region tonight and pass through the area on Friday. The low will linger north of the region on Saturday, as high pressure builds over the western gulf of mexico. High pressure gradually builds in from the west next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrollton, VA
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location: 36.97, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 281856 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong storm system will approach and cross the region later tonight into Saturday. Clouds and widespread rain will spread across the area tonight and persist through Friday. In addition, gusty winds are expected on Friday . especially close to the coast. Calmer conditions are expected by Sunday as the storm system moves well off to the northeast and high pressure begins to build across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Thursday .

This afternoon, mid and high level clouds are on the increase across the region as weak WAA ensues out ahead of the next system. In addition, some lower clouds have worked into the eastern half of the region due to onshore flow. Expect most locations in our area to remain dry through the late afternoon/early evening hours, except for perhaps our far SW (I-85 corridor SW of the RIC/Tri- Cities area), which might experience a few showers right before sunset. PoPs bump up fairly quickly from the SW after 00z/8 pm this evening to likely/categorical through the overnight hours, with first slug of overrunning moisture/WAA lift across the area ahead of the approaching occluding front. WPC has continued Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across our far NW tier of counties for tonight on into Friday, with amounts likely to be terrain enhanced, owing to a stout 40-60kt SSE LLJ late tonight into Fri morning. Expect rain will fall moderately to heavily at times late tonight/overnight from the RIC metro to the piedmont and south central VA. Storm total QPF is 0.75"-1" along the coast, and 1"-1.5" just inland. Some locally heavier totals are likely especially NW of RIC. Temperatures do not fall much tonight due to the extensive moisture/cloud cover with lows forecast in the 50s to near 60 for most tonight, with lower to middle 60s across coastal NE NC and eastern portion of Hampton Roads.

Have maintained the categorical PoPs area-wide through Friday morning, before mid-level dry slot noses in from the south and begins to taper off the first wave of rainfall. This will allow us to drop back to chance PoPs for mainly scattered showers during the afternoon across the south, with periods of rain continuing mainly north of I-64 and over the eastern shore into Friday evening. The trend continues with the GFS preferred over the NAM, which is a bit slower and a bit more amplified/aggressive with pushing the triple point farther north across the Tidewater area as it pushes offshore. This would allow the warm sector and some modest instability (~500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE) to set up over the Hampton Roads area, and bring a more substantial second wave of precipitation to the area. The GFS solution would confine meager instability (aob ~500 j/kg MLCAPE) only across our far SE counties.

Given the impressive wind fields aloft, it would not take much instability to present at least a low-end threat for bowing line segments and perhaps even a quick, spin-up tornado threat. So while the quicker GFS remains the preferred solution at this point, will maintain thunder wording for the entire area Friday morning into the early afternoon (south) and through the afternoon (VA Peninsulas northward) given this dynamic system and its very strong winds aloft. SPC has the much of the eastern half of the region in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for Friday with the mention of damaging wind gusts and the possibility for an isolated tornado. Thinking the greatest severe thereat for our neck of the woods will be during the mid to late morning hours across the southeast, spreading further north into the afternoon hours.

Next threat is the synoptic wind. NWP continues to show strong E winds ramping up quickly along and just north of the occluded front Friday. This likely results in wind gusts up to 45 mph (50 mph Eastern Shore) across Hampton Roads and Atlantic coast, as well as the VA Peninsulas through the northern neck. In fact, guidance suggests that the easterly wind will only become stronger as the front moves north and the gradient tightens up a bit further. Thus, while not overly confident, would not be shocked to see a gust or two of ~50 KT north of WAL Friday aftn.

Highs in the 60s back into the piedmont and along the eastern shore, with highs in the lower to middle 70s east of I-95 to the Hampton Roads area.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Thursday .

Still cannot rule out a few showers continuing into Fri night, especially across the north and northwest, which will be closest to the surface and upper low. However, any widespread rainfall not expected due to previously referenced drying aloft. The vertically stacked low pressure crosses the central Appalachians and pushes across the local area up early Saturday, then heads north into the northeast CONUS through the weekend. With the cool air aloft associated with the upper low and plenty of moisture available, will need to keep chance PoPs across especially western portions of the region for scattered showers on Saturday.

By Sunday morning, the upper trough will be far enough to our north to allow for some drying . with late day clearing leading to partly to mostly sunny skies and a pleasant Halloween night. Highs Sunday in mid to upper 60s on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Thursday .

Generally quiet weather is expected for next week as upper flow becomes quasi-zonal in advance of the deep upper trough over the Canadian prairies into the northern plains states. A weak cold front will attempt to move through the area by midweek, but latest guidance continues to indicate that very little moisture will be available with this system. Maintained PoPs at slight chance or less for now. Overall, temps will be seasonable with mid 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday, falling to the upper 50s to low/mid 60s on Wednesday. Early morning lows in the 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 135 PM EDT Thursday .

This afternoon, some pockets of MVFR ceilings have worked into eastern portions of the area (mainly impacting ORF and PHF) due to onshore flow. The cloud deck will continue to spread to the west through this afternoon with ceilings from 3000 to 3500 ft.

Meanwhile, a potent area of low pressure will continue to approach the region from the SW with easterly winds increasing ahead of this feature through this afternoon/evening. Widespread showers and degraded flight conditions (in the form of MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visbilities) are expected to overspread the region from south to north later this evening through tonight and will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Gusty east to southeast winds are expected tomorrow, especially closer to the coast. Gusts to 30 knots are possible at KRIC/KSBY, and ~35-45 kt possible across SE coastal terminals.

Outlook: Unsettled flying conditions continue through tomorrow night into Saturday, as upper level low pressure pushes across the area. Some episodes of VFR are possible on Saturday, but the more widespread improving conditions will not occur until Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Early morning surface analysis shows weak high pressure ridging down the east coast between departing low pressure now well into the Atlantic and another strong low centered over northern Arkansas. Winds across the waters are generally from the NNE 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-3 ft (highest near the mouth of the bay) with seas offshore remaining elevated in the 5-8 ft range.

Very busy couple of days on tap for marine interests across the region. Aforementioned high pressure will translate offshore today into tonight. Flow transitions to NE and E with time today as the ridge axis moves offshore. This will usher in a period of onshore flow that strengthens considerably this evening and tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. Hoisted SCA headlines for for all waters from this evening into early Friday as conditions are expected to go downhill through the night. Winds increase 15-20 kt this evening and further increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Winds will continue to increase towards daybreak on Friday with most areas averaging 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The core of the strongest winds will come during the day on Friday with improving conditions expected after the strong surface low crosses the region mid to late afternoon. Opted to upgrade the Ches Bay and coastal waters to a Gale Warning starting at 7am Friday but some uncertainty continues for the Currituck Sound and lower James river where a Gale Watch remains in effect. Will let the day shift take a closer look at these areas. The upper James as well as the York and Rappahannock rivers look to stay just below Gale thresholds so have raised SCA flags for those waters. However, given strong easterly winds and favorable orientation, the York and Rappahannock rivers may require an upgrade to Gale Warnings in subsequent forecasts.

In addition to the Gale force wind gusts, seas will rapidly build due to the strong onshore flow. Seas build to 9-12 feet across the northern waters (12 ft+ out 20 nm) and 7-10 feet south. Seas remain elevated in excess of 5 feet through much of the weekend. Waves in the bay will range from 3-5 ft across our northern bay zones but 5-7 ft waves will impact the lower bay as larger waves come in from the open Atlantic. Calmer conditions are expected Saturday into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 600 AM EDT Thursday .

Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for areas along the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coast north of Cape Charles Light.

Chesapeake Bay/Tidal Rivers: Tidal anomalies continue to rapidly increase across the Chesapeake Bay this morning with anomalies now in excess of 2 ft at Bishops Head and Lewisetta. A series of strong flood tides have been observed at Cape Henry (~2kt), with multiple flood tides (and very little to no ebb tide) expected to continue according to CBOFS guidance. Additionally, CBOFS water level guidance has Lewisetta, Bishops Head, and Cambridge hitting minor flood thresholds during high tide this morning. Therefore, the forecasts have been nudged upward, well into minor flood range for the southern shore of the Potomac and Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these locations. Another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the James River and the Peninsula vicinity to account for minor flooding expected at Jamestown, Sewells Pt, Yorktown, and Norfolk this afternoon into the early evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory has also been issued for Lancaster, Middlesex, and Mathews counties from 2pm through late evening to cover expected minor coastal flooding as anomalies continue to rise.

In addition, the next low pressure system approaches the region late today into Friday, turning the winds to the east (gale force) which will allow for additional water up the Chesapeake Bay. All of these factors are setting the stage for a significant coastal flood event for especially the northern Chesapeake Bay tidal sites beginning this evening and persisting into the weekend. Guidance continues to show the highest tide during the late Friday evening/Friday night timeframe with locations such as Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Lewisetta approaching or surpassing Major Flood Stage. The remainder of the upper Bay tidal sites will be reach Moderate Flood Stage. Water levels will be slow to recede with elevated tides expected into the weekend. The southern Bay/river sites will also likely reach at least Minor Flood Stage (likely Moderate at Jamestown).

Atlantic Coast: Minor/nuisance flooding is expected to continue at Ocean City over the next couple of tidal cycles, and the Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended through 4 PM Thursday afternoon. More significant flooding, high-end minor to moderate, is expected later Friday evening at Ocean City, Chincoteague, Wachapreague, and Oyster. Large waves in excess of 8 to 10 feet will enhance the flooding threat and may also lead to beach/dune erosion issues.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. NC . Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084- 089-090-093-095>097-523>525. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for VAZ095-098. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for VAZ099- 100. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for VAZ100. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ077-078- 084>086-523-525. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077- 078-085-086. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634>636-654- 656-658. Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633-637-638.

SYNOPSIS . AJB/MAM NEAR TERM . AJB/MAM SHORT TERM . AJB/MAM LONG TERM . AJB/MAM AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJB/LKB/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 1 mi61 min E 8.9G12 64°F 1011.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 6 mi61 min 68°F1011.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 6 mi61 min E 9.9G12 63°F 1011.8 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 7 mi61 min E 8.9G11 64°F 1011.3 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 15 mi61 min SSE 4.1G8 66°F 69°F1011.1 hPa
44072 18 mi61 min E 5.8G5.8 62°F 66°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 18 mi61 min ESE 8G12 63°F 67°F1011.3 hPa
CHBV2 19 mi61 min E 8.9G12 64°F 1010.6 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 20 mi61 min E 8.9G11 63°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi61 min E 12G14 64°F 1011.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 27 mi61 min ESE 8.9G11 67°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 34 mi85 min SSE 1.9 63°F 1012 hPa55°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 38 mi59 min 67°F5 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi49 min ESE 9.7G9.7 62°F 1013.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi61 min E 13G15 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA8 mi56 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F51°F59%1011.9 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA9 mi2 hrsE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F59°F87%1012.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA12 mi61 minESE 710.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1011.7 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA13 mi64 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F52°F65%1011.3 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA15 mi59 minESE 610.00 miOvercast64°F47°F55%1011.5 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA22 mi60 minENE 57.00 miOvercast65°F52°F62%1011.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi60 minESE 510.00 miOvercast66°F55°F66%1011.2 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA23 mi59 minE 810.00 miOvercast67°F52°F59%1011.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA24 mi60 minE 510.00 miOvercast64°F55°F73%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNGU

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N8N7N5N5N3W3N6NE6NE7NE9NE7NE10NE6NE8E3NE70E7E8E5NE8E10E9
1 day agoW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Newport News, James River, Virginia
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Newport News
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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