Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kanab, UT
May 19, 2024 1:04 PM MDT (19:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 4:06 PM Moonset 3:08 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 191036 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 436 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday, as the next storm system brings increasingly cooler and wetter conditions.
A series of additional weak disturbances is then expected through the remainder of the work week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...The large-scale pattern this morning has Utah returning to a southwesterly flow aloft as the next trough carves into the PacNW. A couple of embedded features are noted within this trough, with a vort lobe currently over eastern Oregon while another is located just west of Vancouver Island.
Meanwhile, what is left of the previous boundary has lifted into northern Utah, with remnant showers continuing through Utah County and into the Uintas.
The next cold front associated with the upstream trough has already moved through central Idaho and will be crossing northern Utah this morning, reaching SLC around 15Z. Expect showers to continue to develop near and ahead of this boundary today, with coverage increasing somewhat through the day. Instability will remain fairly modest, slightly less than yesterday, with the HRRR ensemble mean SBCAPE values remaining generally under 250 J/kg. Still, some ensemble members are producing a smattering of 35+ dBZ cores in simulated reflectivities, so isolated thunderstorms remain possible.
With the low levels still remaining relatively dry, the greatest threat will continue to be isolated to widely scattered microbursts.
HRRR probabilities show isolated areas with 10-20% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph this afternoon.
The cold front is expected to stall and weaken over central Utah this evening as the first embedded vort lobe ejects off into Montana while the second feature continues to carve south. Southwest flow will then continue to increase ahead of the boundary while a reinforcing shot of cold air pushes into northern Utah tomorrow.
This will increase frontogenetic forcing along the boundary tomorrow, which combined with increased moisture, will bring a better chance of measurable precipitation, especially along the boundary from southwest Utah through the Uintas. The trough will then gradually swing through the forecast area through Tuesday, maintaining cool and unsettled weather across the area. With H7 temperatures falling to between 0 to -3C by late tomorrow afternoon (and slightly colder than than tomorrow night), snow levels are expected to reach the high terrain, as low as around 7000ft over the northern mountains. Presently, accumulations are expected to remain relatively minor, although 6 inches or more over the high Uintas will be possible. Otherwise, temperatures will see a noticeable cooldown, falling well below climatological normals, especially across northern Utah, Monday and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...Long term forecast period starts with a broad longwave trough extending throughout much of the W CONUS, with an embedded shortwave impulse departing east of the area. With this feature nearby (and depending on exact timing), could maintain a few isolated showers early Wednesday mostly across N UT and SW WY, but largely anticipate things to be winding down.
Following the departure of this shortwave, a brief period of zonal flow to weak shortwave ridging looks to set in. This will result in quieter/dry conditions for most of Wednesday, as well as temperatures rebounding upwards several degrees with afternoon highs near seasonal normal.
By Wednesday evening, the next shortwave impulse will be nearing the forecast region as it digs through the longwave trough from the PacNW. Initially, anticipate this will result in an increase in isolated to scattered showers across N UT and SW WY. Thereafter through Thursday, an associated cold frontal boundary will drop southward into the forecast region, once again serving as a focus for a bit higher precipitation chances. There remains some differences in model guidance as to the exact amplitude and motion of the parent shortwave, and thus how far south this cold frontal boundary ultimately ends up progressing before stalling. Rough model consensus at this point suggests near to maybe a bit north of the I- 70 corridor or so, which if valid would limit precipitation chances across S UT. That said, a corridor of moderate H7 winds ahead of the front will likely yield gusty surface winds in the 25-40 mph range or so. Colder post-frontal conditions are also expected, with temperatures behind the front falling around 5-10F or so, back to well below climatological normal. Friday will remain a bit unsettled as the trough lingers (with ~55% of ensemble members showing a bit more of a weak trailing impulse), but generally expect a bit less activity overall. Temperatures also remain around 5-15F below seasonal normal for afternoon highs, though a good bit of spread is noted (especially areas north) due to the aforementioned split on a trailing impulse or not.
Moving into the weekend, uncertainty increases due to differences on how guidance handles another shortwave digging a similar path through the longwave trough. General ensemble consensus keeps the feature far enough northwest that locally H7 temperatures increase within deeper southwesterly flow, resulting in afternoon highs near to a bit below normal. This would also keep things a bit less unsettled, with some isolated to scattered showers, mostly diurnally driven and favored over the high terrain from central Utah northward. However, given the proximity to the shortwave and associated features, will need to keep an eye on how guidance trends in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...Weak remnant boundary once again will yield isolated high-based showers, but anticipate activity to generally remain south of the terminal through the day Sunday. NW winds become favored early (between ~13-16Z), and then should largely remain NW thereafter. If any shower activity can form near the terminal, could see some brief gusty and erratic outflow winds. SCT to BKN VFR cloud cover maintained through Sunday. Sunday evening into the overnight hours will see increasing shower chances as the next system begins to approach.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A fairly weak boundary will remain draped across central Utah, and once again serve as the primary focus for isolated high-based shower activity Sunday. Some gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near these showers.
Otherwise, expect another day with a mix of generally mid to high level VFR cloud cover. Shower chances then increase Sunday evening into the overnight hours at northern terminals as the next system begins to approach the area.
FIRE WEATHER
Ongoing showers across portions of northern/central Utah this morning will continue through the day, gradually increasing in coverage later in the day and overnight as the next cold front pushes into Utah. This cold front will weaken over central Utah tonight before another reinforcing boundary moves in tomorrow, sweeping the front through the rest of the state through tomorrow evening. Breezy to locally windy conditions can be expected ahead of and near the front.
Showers today will continue to be generally high-based today, producing generally small amounts of precipitation along with isolated to widely scattered gusty microburst winds in excess of 40 mph. Moisture increases more for tomorrow, with greater chances of wetting rain. However, portions of far southeast Utah will remain dry and windy ahead of the cold front through much of the afternoon tomorrow. As the parent storm system continues to slowly cross the area, cool and unsettled weather will continue into Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation focusing over northeast portions of the state. A brief break in the weather is expected for Wednesday before another round of unsettled weather affects the area during the latter part of the week.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 436 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday, as the next storm system brings increasingly cooler and wetter conditions.
A series of additional weak disturbances is then expected through the remainder of the work week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...The large-scale pattern this morning has Utah returning to a southwesterly flow aloft as the next trough carves into the PacNW. A couple of embedded features are noted within this trough, with a vort lobe currently over eastern Oregon while another is located just west of Vancouver Island.
Meanwhile, what is left of the previous boundary has lifted into northern Utah, with remnant showers continuing through Utah County and into the Uintas.
The next cold front associated with the upstream trough has already moved through central Idaho and will be crossing northern Utah this morning, reaching SLC around 15Z. Expect showers to continue to develop near and ahead of this boundary today, with coverage increasing somewhat through the day. Instability will remain fairly modest, slightly less than yesterday, with the HRRR ensemble mean SBCAPE values remaining generally under 250 J/kg. Still, some ensemble members are producing a smattering of 35+ dBZ cores in simulated reflectivities, so isolated thunderstorms remain possible.
With the low levels still remaining relatively dry, the greatest threat will continue to be isolated to widely scattered microbursts.
HRRR probabilities show isolated areas with 10-20% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph this afternoon.
The cold front is expected to stall and weaken over central Utah this evening as the first embedded vort lobe ejects off into Montana while the second feature continues to carve south. Southwest flow will then continue to increase ahead of the boundary while a reinforcing shot of cold air pushes into northern Utah tomorrow.
This will increase frontogenetic forcing along the boundary tomorrow, which combined with increased moisture, will bring a better chance of measurable precipitation, especially along the boundary from southwest Utah through the Uintas. The trough will then gradually swing through the forecast area through Tuesday, maintaining cool and unsettled weather across the area. With H7 temperatures falling to between 0 to -3C by late tomorrow afternoon (and slightly colder than than tomorrow night), snow levels are expected to reach the high terrain, as low as around 7000ft over the northern mountains. Presently, accumulations are expected to remain relatively minor, although 6 inches or more over the high Uintas will be possible. Otherwise, temperatures will see a noticeable cooldown, falling well below climatological normals, especially across northern Utah, Monday and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Wednesday)...Long term forecast period starts with a broad longwave trough extending throughout much of the W CONUS, with an embedded shortwave impulse departing east of the area. With this feature nearby (and depending on exact timing), could maintain a few isolated showers early Wednesday mostly across N UT and SW WY, but largely anticipate things to be winding down.
Following the departure of this shortwave, a brief period of zonal flow to weak shortwave ridging looks to set in. This will result in quieter/dry conditions for most of Wednesday, as well as temperatures rebounding upwards several degrees with afternoon highs near seasonal normal.
By Wednesday evening, the next shortwave impulse will be nearing the forecast region as it digs through the longwave trough from the PacNW. Initially, anticipate this will result in an increase in isolated to scattered showers across N UT and SW WY. Thereafter through Thursday, an associated cold frontal boundary will drop southward into the forecast region, once again serving as a focus for a bit higher precipitation chances. There remains some differences in model guidance as to the exact amplitude and motion of the parent shortwave, and thus how far south this cold frontal boundary ultimately ends up progressing before stalling. Rough model consensus at this point suggests near to maybe a bit north of the I- 70 corridor or so, which if valid would limit precipitation chances across S UT. That said, a corridor of moderate H7 winds ahead of the front will likely yield gusty surface winds in the 25-40 mph range or so. Colder post-frontal conditions are also expected, with temperatures behind the front falling around 5-10F or so, back to well below climatological normal. Friday will remain a bit unsettled as the trough lingers (with ~55% of ensemble members showing a bit more of a weak trailing impulse), but generally expect a bit less activity overall. Temperatures also remain around 5-15F below seasonal normal for afternoon highs, though a good bit of spread is noted (especially areas north) due to the aforementioned split on a trailing impulse or not.
Moving into the weekend, uncertainty increases due to differences on how guidance handles another shortwave digging a similar path through the longwave trough. General ensemble consensus keeps the feature far enough northwest that locally H7 temperatures increase within deeper southwesterly flow, resulting in afternoon highs near to a bit below normal. This would also keep things a bit less unsettled, with some isolated to scattered showers, mostly diurnally driven and favored over the high terrain from central Utah northward. However, given the proximity to the shortwave and associated features, will need to keep an eye on how guidance trends in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...Weak remnant boundary once again will yield isolated high-based showers, but anticipate activity to generally remain south of the terminal through the day Sunday. NW winds become favored early (between ~13-16Z), and then should largely remain NW thereafter. If any shower activity can form near the terminal, could see some brief gusty and erratic outflow winds. SCT to BKN VFR cloud cover maintained through Sunday. Sunday evening into the overnight hours will see increasing shower chances as the next system begins to approach.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A fairly weak boundary will remain draped across central Utah, and once again serve as the primary focus for isolated high-based shower activity Sunday. Some gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near these showers.
Otherwise, expect another day with a mix of generally mid to high level VFR cloud cover. Shower chances then increase Sunday evening into the overnight hours at northern terminals as the next system begins to approach the area.
FIRE WEATHER
Ongoing showers across portions of northern/central Utah this morning will continue through the day, gradually increasing in coverage later in the day and overnight as the next cold front pushes into Utah. This cold front will weaken over central Utah tonight before another reinforcing boundary moves in tomorrow, sweeping the front through the rest of the state through tomorrow evening. Breezy to locally windy conditions can be expected ahead of and near the front.
Showers today will continue to be generally high-based today, producing generally small amounts of precipitation along with isolated to widely scattered gusty microburst winds in excess of 40 mph. Moisture increases more for tomorrow, with greater chances of wetting rain. However, portions of far southeast Utah will remain dry and windy ahead of the cold front through much of the afternoon tomorrow. As the parent storm system continues to slowly cross the area, cool and unsettled weather will continue into Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation focusing over northeast portions of the state. A brief break in the weather is expected for Wednesday before another round of unsettled weather affects the area during the latter part of the week.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KKNB KANAB MUNI,UT | 18 sm | 29 min | WSW 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 23°F | 13% | 30.02 |
Cedar City, UT,
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