Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rustburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:48PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rustburg, VA
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location: 37.18, -79.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 231057 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 657 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. The first real fall cold front of the season was moving through the region early today finally sweeping the deep moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas out of our area once and for all. The front was ushering in much drier and cooler into the region from the west. High pressure will build into the region behind the front keeping dry and seasonably cool temperatures over the area through the weekend and into the first part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Thursday .

Much Drier and Cooler Weather Conditions Expected Behind Our First Real Fall Cold Front of the Season .

Finally we can rid ourselves of the tropical moisture and excessive rainfall that has lingered over the region the past 2-3 days as the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Nicholas moved over the region. The front is now located just east of the CWA border with much drier and cooler air filtering into the region from the west and even the southwest. Dewpoints fall from the 70s ahead of the front to the 40s and 50s across the western and southern areas of the CWA early this morning. This dry air mass will continue to advect eastward today as the surface low, upper low, and remnants of Nicholas all merge together across southeastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes.

The combination of a deepening upper low to our north and high pressure at the surface will provide much drier and cooler conditions for the next several days starting today. The big question for today is the degree of clearing in the west. Pretty confident that eastern areas will clear out by late morning to midday. Western areas may see some upslope clouds for a while, but conditions are not ideal, outside the deepening upper low, for that to continue for any length of time. Thus, planning on decreasing clouds in the west by afternoon as well. Any moisture is confined to a very shallow layer near the ground that will slowly erode with time. Model moisture cross sections show a very dry atmosphere of 10% mean RH above 850mb and this continues for the next several days.

Winds will be a bit gusty out of the west through the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low pressure and the approaching high pressure. Look for some low end gusts near 20kts during the late morning and afternoon.

High temperatures will only be in the 60s and 70s for the next couple of days with lows dipping into the chilly 40s west to near 50 east. Have a low of 36 for Burkes Garden tonight and cannot completely rule out patchy frost in isolated locations such as that.

Did include some patchy fog for early Friday as temperatures cool to near the dewpoint with light winds and clear skies. Location such as LWB will likely see a period of dense fog early Friday and BCB may as well.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Probabilities of Precipitation, - High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed - Moderate Confidence in Fog Potential Early Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 AM EDT Thursday .

Confidence is high for quiet weather throughout this weekend.

High pressure will build from western Tennessee toward the Appalachian Mountains on Friday and maintain control through Saturday morning. It will feel more like the first weekend of Autumn with highs only in the 60s and 70s during Friday and Saturday and lows falling into the 40s. Some sheltered mountain valleys like Burkes Garden could dip into the upper 30s given the ideal radiational cooling expected on Saturday morning.

A weak cold front and an associated upper level trough in the northern stream will pass over the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley during Saturday. Because of the dry air mass in place, moisture from this front may only reach southward into central West Virginia. For locations in southeast West Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands of Virginia, some upslope clouds may occur during Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Once this front lifts and the associated trough retreats on Sunday, the flow should become more zonal as high pressure rebuilds itself over the Mid Atlantic. Milder air will begin to arrive toward the end of this weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 300 AM EDT Thursday .

The new work week starts dry, but forecast confidence diminishes rapidly by Wednesday due to significant model differences.

High pressure will depart offshore on Monday, which should increase the warm air advection across the Mid Atlantic. The models diverge significantly by Tuesday as they struggle with the timing, location, and intensity of an upper level trough digging southward from eastern Canada. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with this trough and cuts it off into an upper level low overhead, while the GFS is the least as it shows the trough exiting offshore and bringing a ridge from the Plains toward the Appalachian Mountains. The Canadian offers a compromise between these two competing solutions and is what was utilized most for Tuesday and Wednesday, which gives mild conditions for Tuesday and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 700 AM EDT Thursday .

Much improved aviation conditions expected through this TAF valid period as the remnants of Nicholas are swept out of the region by a strong frontal system. Dewpoints are falling into the 40s and 50s behind the front on the heels of modest southwest to west winds. This drier air will continue to spread eastward across the region throughout the day. It may take a few hours this morning to totally scour out the low-level moisture in the eastern areas where the lower atmosphere may decouple for a few hours around/before daybreak from the drier/westerly flow aloft, ceilings and visibilities are expected to become VFR by late morning especially east of the Blue Ridge. In the west, would expect some limited upslope clouds through the mid/late morning hours and perhaps some low cloud induced fog/drizzle through 9 AM EDT, but even in these areas, sky/visibility should become VFR by mid to late morning.

Winds will be light southwest to west through daybreak then become west 5-10 mph with low end gusts 18-20kts at most sites along/west of the Blue Ridge until sunset.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Ceilings, - Moderate to High Confidence in Visibilities, - High Confidence in Wind Speed and Direction.

Extended Aviation Discussion .

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the first half of next week as a couple of large high pressure systems drift over the region. A cold front will pass by mainly to the north and west of the area during the first half of next week, which could bring a few clouds and possibly a few showers to the west, but mostly dry conditions are expected to continue into the first half of next week at this time.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VA . None. NC . None. WV . None.

SYNOPSIS . RAB NEAR TERM . RAB SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . PW AVIATION . RAB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lynchburg, Lynchburg Regional Airport, VA14 mi69 minW 710.00 miFair68°F51°F55%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLYH

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34Calm4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW454
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2 days ago3E6E5E5E6NE75NE7NE5NE5NE64NE4NE4N3N4N4NE6N7NE6NE9NE7NE7N6

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
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Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.61.42.43.23.63.63.12.31.610.60.30.51.32.43.33.83.83.52.82.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Thu -- 01:17 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.41.22.22.93.33.22.82.11.510.60.30.41.12.133.43.53.12.61.91.4

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