Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:19AM||Sunset 7:19PM||Monday September 27, 2021 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC)||Moonrise 10:15PM||Moonset 12:39PM||Illumination 67%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinchco, VAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KRLX 270611 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021
SYNOPSIS. Warmer and remaining dry today. A cold front crosses Tuesday, with scattered showers and storms. High pressure brings a stretch of dry Fall weather mid to late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 210 AM Monday .
Quiet weather continues to start the work weak, amid a strengthening southwest flow of warmer air around high pressure south of the area. Daytime gusts will reach 15 to 20 mph across the middle Ohio Valley and mountain tops.
Clouds will increase tonight on warm, moist advection ahead a mid/upper level trough approaching from the west, and a cold front approaching from the north. With PW values climbing into the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range, showers and even thunderstorms are possible across northern portions of the area overnight tonight.
The presence of the short wave trough ahead of the front spells elevated instability across northern portions of the area overnight tonight, with MUCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/Kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear around 35 kts. With low level shear, 1, 2 and 3 km, in the 25 to 30 kt range, strong thunderstorm wind gusts are not out of the question.
Temperatures climb above normal for a warmer afternoon, followed by a mild night, especially compared with recent nights.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 215 PM Sunday .
On Tuesday, an upper level trough brings down a sfc frontal boundary to the area and promotes showers and possibly thunderstorms out of the northern half of the CWA into the afternoon. The upper level feature quickly slides east as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. This will create northwesterly flow consequently drying out the column and then cutting off most chances of any activity from the aforementioned frontal band. Since the Canadian was the only model keeping us dry really, decided to accept central guidance and did some tweaking which equated to slight chances around the northern fringe for late morning increasing to chances and extending down into the lowlands throughout afternoon. Only left a few hours for lingering slight chances in the northeast mountains before drying out completely by the evening.
The same timing goes for thunderstorm potential. Soundings look good for some activity up north across Parkersburg to Clarksburg with enough shear and modest CAPE/DCAPE. Although, the time frame at which these indices are at their max is the same time that trough moves away and ahead of the front. Therefore, most of the instability will be wasted on account of the loss of the main lifting mechanism. Accepted guidance, but limited thunderstorm probability to just chances at this time. The Canadian does bring in some activity later in the afternoon/evening, so if this solution does pan out, there may be more thunderstorm activity than what is predicted at this time.
Ridging does build in thereafter with a very amplified upper level ridge over the middle of the CONUS protecting the area from unsettled weather until the end of this period. This upper level feature initially looks like an omega block, but eventually flattens out by Thursday. Temperatures start to decline slightly and settle down to right around seasonable by Thursday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 215 PM Sunday .
As high pressure flattens out by around the Thursday evening time frame, the GFS brings in a disturbance from the west which starts to spread higher chances of showers and storms for Friday and then brings an upper low down from Canada by mid weekend. The other long range models maintain sfc high pressure and keep the area clear for the rest of this period and beyond. Decided to accept guidance which suggests leaning toward the GFS and Canadian who both bring chances to the area later on Sunday. Temperatures are to cool ever so slightly in this period to just below seasonable through most of the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 210 AM Monday .
Southwest flow around high pressure south of the area will provide VFR conditions with this period, except for VLIFR dense fog briefly before dawn at EKN. The southwest flow will be a bit gusty during afternoon mixing, as light early morning southwest flow aloft increases to moderate west.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be entering the middle Ohio Valley toward 06Z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may form sooner or not at all at KEKN overnight. Elk river fog may impact CRW more than indicated. Gusty winds in the afternoon will fluctuate, with peak gusts possibly higher than indicated.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 09/27/21 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY . IFR conditions could briefly occur in showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, including early in the morning, especially across northern terminals. River/mountain valley fog possible Wednesday through Friday mornings.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.
SYNOPSIS . TRM/JZ/RG NEAR TERM . TRM SHORT TERM . JZ LONG TERM . JZ AVIATION . TRM
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|Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA||18 mi||51 min||SSW 5||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||45°F||82%||1022.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLNP
Wind History from LNP (wind in knots)
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