Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clinchco, VA
May 6, 2024 6:20 AM EDT (10:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 4:24 AM Moonset 6:01 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 060741 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will pose concern for localized flooding each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 AM Monday...
A disturbance encroaches the area starting this morning, kicking off what looks to be an active weather week. A frontal boundary will be draped along the northern extent of the forecast area today amid shortwave energy gliding up from the south. The stalled front, coupled with the approaching shortwave trough, will help give rise to showers and isolated thunderstorm development for the second half of the period.
Radar trends at the time of writing depicted storms pressing into Kentucky, which will then be progged to lift north into the forecast area through the day. Early morning CAM guidance suggests precipitation moving into our southwestern zones some time between 9-11 AM, then engulfing the forecast area under POPs on the order of 50-80% for the afternoon and evening timeframe.
PWATs will be on the rise amid the strong southerly pull of moisture, leaping back up to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by this afternoon. Localized flooding concerns grow by the day as flash flood guidance is chipped away by daily showers and storms. This will especially be the case in the event of heavy downpours and/or repetitive showers/storms not only today, but stretching into the extended forecast period as well.
With excess cloud cover expected over the area today, afternoon highs will fall a few degrees shy of readings that were observed over the weekend. Instability will also be kept at bay as a result, with severe weather being limited for today.
Precipitation diminishes to slight chances (20-30%) late tonight as the shortwave trough departs off the Delmarva coast, but looks to return in earnest heading into Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 AM Monday...
Key Points: * Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can't be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and localized flooding.
Tuesday begins with a warm front draped across northern WV and OH and a shortwave tracking towards the Great Lakes region. This wave and surface low are eventually expected to push a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air flows into the area well in advance of the front and helps to facilitate the development of showers and thunderstorms during the day. Forecast soundings continue to show potential for moderate to strong instability in concert with DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and 30-40kts of effective shear Tuesday afternoon and evening. During this time, isolated to scattered storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main concerns, though a tornado isn't out of the question either.
PWATs hovering in the 1-2 inch range also indicate storms may be accompanied by heavy downpours which could lead to localized flash flooding.
The aforementioned cold front progresses across the CWA Tuesday night, then is expected to be lifted back to the north as a warm front Wednesday into Wednesday night as yet another low tracks out of the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. Severe weather will again be possible, with potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes on Wednesday. The new day 3 outlook from SPC has highlighted the majority of the area in a slight risk of severe weather, but clips part of northeast Kentucky with an enhanced risk. Flooding concerns also persist on Wednesday as storms bring more locally heavy rain to areas that are gradually becoming saturated.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 340 AM Monday...
Key Points: * Unsettled pattern persists through the end of the work week.
* Low confidence on the timing and track of a potential system this weekend or early next week.
Unsettled weather continues as a low moves by to the north and ushers a cold front into and then across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Strong storms may once again develop ahead of and along the front, while additional rounds of rain sustain flooding concerns. Coverage of showers and storms should diminish once the front exits to the east, though some activity could persist while a shortwave trough passes overhead on Friday.
Models suggest at least a brief period of quieter weather late Friday into Saturday before the next system arrives; however, models do not agree on the timing or track of this next system. For the time being, have elected to maintain a blended model solution that maintains chances of precipitation and storms into early next week.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 AM Monday...
An assortment of patchy fog, low stratus, and a passing mid- level cloud deck will impose a challenging aviation forecast this morning. Some clearing is taking shape down in the southern coalfields, where vsbys have tumbled down to IFR thresholds, while northern half of the territory still resides under anvil blow off from convection upstream that has prevented development of fog. However, further clearing is in the realm of possibility over the next few hours, that could give way to fog before sunrise. Tempo groups were included to attempt bouncing flight rules during the overnight period.
After daybreak, a warm front lifts up into the Tennessee Valley, with showers attached to the boundary. This will drape itself through our forecast area for the majority of the day, allowing for showers and afternoon thunderstorms to sprout. The front may also promote MVFR ceilings during its northern progression through the Central Appalachians. Activity gradually wanes this evening, however low ceilings will prevail overnight tonight as the front remains parked nearby.
Light and variable winds overnight will aid in fog production amid peaks of clear skies. Low level flow will shift out of the southwest through the day as the warm front migrates over the area.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low for fog tonight.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will likely vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/06/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will pose concern for localized flooding each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 AM Monday...
A disturbance encroaches the area starting this morning, kicking off what looks to be an active weather week. A frontal boundary will be draped along the northern extent of the forecast area today amid shortwave energy gliding up from the south. The stalled front, coupled with the approaching shortwave trough, will help give rise to showers and isolated thunderstorm development for the second half of the period.
Radar trends at the time of writing depicted storms pressing into Kentucky, which will then be progged to lift north into the forecast area through the day. Early morning CAM guidance suggests precipitation moving into our southwestern zones some time between 9-11 AM, then engulfing the forecast area under POPs on the order of 50-80% for the afternoon and evening timeframe.
PWATs will be on the rise amid the strong southerly pull of moisture, leaping back up to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by this afternoon. Localized flooding concerns grow by the day as flash flood guidance is chipped away by daily showers and storms. This will especially be the case in the event of heavy downpours and/or repetitive showers/storms not only today, but stretching into the extended forecast period as well.
With excess cloud cover expected over the area today, afternoon highs will fall a few degrees shy of readings that were observed over the weekend. Instability will also be kept at bay as a result, with severe weather being limited for today.
Precipitation diminishes to slight chances (20-30%) late tonight as the shortwave trough departs off the Delmarva coast, but looks to return in earnest heading into Tuesday.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 AM Monday...
Key Points: * Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can't be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and localized flooding.
Tuesday begins with a warm front draped across northern WV and OH and a shortwave tracking towards the Great Lakes region. This wave and surface low are eventually expected to push a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air flows into the area well in advance of the front and helps to facilitate the development of showers and thunderstorms during the day. Forecast soundings continue to show potential for moderate to strong instability in concert with DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and 30-40kts of effective shear Tuesday afternoon and evening. During this time, isolated to scattered storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main concerns, though a tornado isn't out of the question either.
PWATs hovering in the 1-2 inch range also indicate storms may be accompanied by heavy downpours which could lead to localized flash flooding.
The aforementioned cold front progresses across the CWA Tuesday night, then is expected to be lifted back to the north as a warm front Wednesday into Wednesday night as yet another low tracks out of the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. Severe weather will again be possible, with potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes on Wednesday. The new day 3 outlook from SPC has highlighted the majority of the area in a slight risk of severe weather, but clips part of northeast Kentucky with an enhanced risk. Flooding concerns also persist on Wednesday as storms bring more locally heavy rain to areas that are gradually becoming saturated.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 340 AM Monday...
Key Points: * Unsettled pattern persists through the end of the work week.
* Low confidence on the timing and track of a potential system this weekend or early next week.
Unsettled weather continues as a low moves by to the north and ushers a cold front into and then across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Strong storms may once again develop ahead of and along the front, while additional rounds of rain sustain flooding concerns. Coverage of showers and storms should diminish once the front exits to the east, though some activity could persist while a shortwave trough passes overhead on Friday.
Models suggest at least a brief period of quieter weather late Friday into Saturday before the next system arrives; however, models do not agree on the timing or track of this next system. For the time being, have elected to maintain a blended model solution that maintains chances of precipitation and storms into early next week.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 AM Monday...
An assortment of patchy fog, low stratus, and a passing mid- level cloud deck will impose a challenging aviation forecast this morning. Some clearing is taking shape down in the southern coalfields, where vsbys have tumbled down to IFR thresholds, while northern half of the territory still resides under anvil blow off from convection upstream that has prevented development of fog. However, further clearing is in the realm of possibility over the next few hours, that could give way to fog before sunrise. Tempo groups were included to attempt bouncing flight rules during the overnight period.
After daybreak, a warm front lifts up into the Tennessee Valley, with showers attached to the boundary. This will drape itself through our forecast area for the majority of the day, allowing for showers and afternoon thunderstorms to sprout. The front may also promote MVFR ceilings during its northern progression through the Central Appalachians. Activity gradually wanes this evening, however low ceilings will prevail overnight tonight as the front remains parked nearby.
Light and variable winds overnight will aid in fog production amid peaks of clear skies. Low level flow will shift out of the southwest through the day as the warm front migrates over the area.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low for fog tonight.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will likely vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/06/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 17 sm | 25 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 30.08 |
Jackson, KY,
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