Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for York, VA
May 20, 2024 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:37 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
ANZ636 York River- 1015 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue - NE winds 5 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop, building to around 1 foot in the afternoon.
Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1015 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system slowly pulls away from the southeast coast today. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek bringing benign marine conditions.
a low pressure system slowly pulls away from the southeast coast today. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek bringing benign marine conditions.
FXUS61 KAKQ 201849 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 249 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear out through the evening
- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible across the entire forecast area
High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow.
Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday.
- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.
High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon, which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to 15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to 3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance of scattered showers and storms each day.
A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down" to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper James area, for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 249 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear out through the evening
- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible across the entire forecast area
High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow.
Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday.
- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.
High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon, which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to 15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to 3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance of scattered showers and storms each day.
A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down" to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper James area, for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 1 mi | 48 min | E 11G | 65°F | 69°F | 30.03 | ||
| 44072 | 13 mi | 36 min | NNE 12G | 63°F | 1 ft | |||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 15 mi | 36 min | NE 7.8G | 72°F | 71°F | |||
| DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA | 19 mi | 48 min | E 11G | 64°F | 30.03 | |||
| WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA | 20 mi | 48 min | E 7G | 62°F | 30.03 | |||
| SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA | 22 mi | 48 min | 68°F | 30.06 | ||||
| 44087 | 23 mi | 40 min | 67°F | 2 ft | ||||
| CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA | 25 mi | 48 min | NE 8G | 64°F | 30.03 | |||
| CHBV2 | 26 mi | 48 min | E 11G | 61°F | 30.01 | |||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 27 mi | 36 min | NE 7.8G | 62°F | 68°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44064 | 27 mi | 36 min | E 16G | 60°F | 66°F | 2 ft | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 28 mi | 48 min | E 5.1G | 63°F | 66°F | 30.06 | ||
| MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA | 33 mi | 48 min | NNE 7G | 68°F | 70°F | 30.02 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 33 mi | 48 min | NNW 8.9G | 30.07 | ||||
| CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA | 34 mi | 48 min | NE 12G | 58°F | 30.05 | |||
| 44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) | 47 mi | 40 min | 61°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 7 sm | 11 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.03 | |
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 23 sm | 6 min | E 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 59°F | 78% | 30.04 | |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 24 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 30.03 |
Yorktown
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT 2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT 2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Yorktown, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
SW Branch
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT 2.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
SW Branch, Severn River, Mobjack Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Wakefield, VA,
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