Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Big Water, UT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:28PM Thursday September 23, 2021 12:20 PM MDT (18:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Water, UT
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location: 37.24, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 230953 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 353 AM MDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cut-off low will cross Utah from north to south today and then gradually shift southwest toward Baja California tonight. High pressure will build into the state through Friday, followed by zonal flow this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday). Morning satellite analysis clearly indicates an upper level low in the process of cutting off is located across southern Idaho. Meanwhile the associated weak surface boundary is located across northern Utah, roughly from Wendover to Evanston. This largely dry cold front will continue to shift southward through the morning and the afternoon.

The upper level low will continue to cut-off through the day today and shift south and east across Utah through the day. With northeasterly flow around the building upper level ridge, this cut-off and relatively weak upper level low will meander toward the southwest and eventually shift to near Baja California by Saturday.

Little impact to the sensible weather is expected aside from the mid-level cloud deck from roughly south of Wendover to Evanston this morning. This will shift south and east with the front through the day. Temperatures will gradually warm to 5 to 10 degrees above normal levels by Saturday.

LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday). A broad, low-amplitude ridge will continue to remain in place at the end of the weekend ahead, with a potential cut-off low lingering over the Arizona/ New Mexico region. This cut-off low positioning will become key during the middle portion of the extended forecast, linked largely to the positioning of lower and middle layer moisture. However, with the broad ridge in place, above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to prevail through at least the first half of Tuesday.

A deep, upstream trough progged to dig into the PacNW region will begin to move inland through the day on Tuesday (per ensemble means). That being said, there is a bit of uncertainty revolving around the speed of the trough moving inland and the positioning of the feature. The other key piece of uncertainty in this forecast will be the position of the aforementioned closed low over the southwest U.S. The way that these two features will combine may have two very different outcomes in the forecast for Tuesday. The first favoring a further disconnected closed low that will inhibit moisture getting caught up in the flow over the CWA, which would mainly turn Tuesday into a high fire danger kind of day as dry southwesterly flow increases ahead of the deeper upstream trough. However, if this closed low stays positioned more northward then greater layer moisture will become entrained by the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. This would yield two things . 1) higher RH values during the afternoon, bringing less fire weather threats and 2) the potential for afternoon convection initiating off the high terrain (with potential for strong outflow winds).

Will need to closely monitor these differences going forward. By Wednesday, however, there is generally good agreement of moving a cooler airmass over at least the northern portions of the forecast area which will also bring better chances for more widespread precipitation. There does exist some uncertainty revolving around how deep this trough remains as it moves over the area, which is clearly evident in the NBM high temperature spread (almost 20F over KSLC). Too early to call the shots, but have maintained a net cooling trend through the middle of the week ahead

AVIATION. KSLC . VFR conditions will prevail across the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period, with increasing middle and upper cloud decks through the remainder of the morning hours. High confidence in an earlier than normal shift to northerly flow exists as a frontal boundary approaches the terminal during the mid- morning. Current timing of wind shift is anticipated around 12Z with winds becoming 10kts or less, then gusting to near 20kts during the afternoon hours. There is a 25% chance that winds do not become northerly until 15Z.

Rest of Utah and southwest Wyoming . Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through the valid TAF package, with areas of light showers possible across primarily the Uinta Mountains. Mainly northerly flow is expected across a large majority of the area, especially along and west of the I-15 corridor. Gusty winds of up to 20-25kts will be possible. Otherwise, expect scattered to broken cloud decks around 10-12kft AGL, diminishing through the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER. A weak boundary will bring an increase in humidities today to much of the state. High pressure will gradually build across the region in the wake of this boundary as a cut-off upper level low crosses Utah through Friday and then meanders southwestward to offshore Baja California by Saturday. Expect zonal flow in response to the flattening ridge this weekend into early next week. The next real chance for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the cut-off low ejects ahead of a trough crossing the Interior West.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.

Kruse/Webber

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bryce Canyon Airport, UT34 mi27 minNW 910.00 miFair67°F25°F20%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCE

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Last 24hrSE10SE9SE8
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SE8SW8SW10W6W7W5W8W4CalmW6W4NW7W6W8W9W6W10W6W8NW9
1 day agoSE6S7S8SE10SE9SE9S9S6SW4W6SW3W4W3W5W6W8W9W9W3W3W3CalmSE9SE10
2 days agoNW6NW9
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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