Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:00PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 134 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers. A chance of tstms early, then a slight chance of tstms late.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt, becoming W late in the evening, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 8 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 134 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will move well offshore by Friday morning. Canadian high pressure builds in this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 231521 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1121 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will gradually push off the coast later this afternoon through tonight. Cool high pressure builds in from the west through the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1100 AM EDT Thursday .

The latest analysis indicates the cold front now located just inland (west) of the Bay and continuing S and bisecting Hampton Roads and down into NE NC. The forward motion of the front (eastward) has nearly stopped with the front almost parallel to the H5 flow. LLJ enhancement of the convective line, in tandem with the moist PWs and a slowing frontal zone as the parent low retrogrades over the eastern Great Lakes has led to continued locally heavy rain across the eastern 1/3 of the area, especially across Dorchester MD on the eastern shore. With the front expected to barely move E into the aftn, expect to see previously referenced issues with locally heavy rainfall and some embedded stronger gusts possible over the coastal counties over to the eastern shore through the mid to late aftn hours.

Drastically different conditions along/W of I-95 where skies have become partly to mostly sunny with a W wind of 5-10 mph. Highs today in the low to mid 70s inland . 75 to 80 along the coast (though with falling temperatures near the coast in the later aftn).

Additional total QPF will be confined to the eastern 1/3 of the CWA, but will be substantial in this region, especially the eastern shore where another 1.00"+ is likely with locally higher amounts possible.

Markedly cooler and drier air will overspread the region as the sfc cold front pushes off the coast. Will need to watch for some wrap around clouds this evening along the coast, but otherwise clear and cool inland, with bkn clouds along the coast as the front lingers just offshore into Fri morning. Will therefore maintain a low PoP for some leftover light rain or drizzle from OXB-WAL-Va Beach through the late night hours. Post- frontal CAA brings cool lows in the mid-upper 40s/near 50F in the Piedmont under a clear sky. It will remain much warmer closer to the coast due to clouds and better mixing, with lows generally 60-65F.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Thursday .

No major changes for the weekend, with a pleasant first weekend of astronomical Fall after some lingering clouds/showers (mainly E) early on Fri. Gradual clearing will ensue through the aftn along the coast, as the frontal zone pushes farther offshore. For inland areas, mainly sunny with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will be a little cooler than avg, generally in the mid 70s CWA- wide. Clear/cool Fri night as sfc high pressure settles over the local area. Went on cool side of guidance for most areas, lows in the again in the 40s to near 50 over the inland 2/3 of the CWA (low-mid 50s urban areas). Near the coast lows will be 55-60F. Mostly sunny and pleasant Sat with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A bit more in the way of clouds behind a reinforcing (*dry) cold front on Sunday with highs again in the 70s . near 80 SE coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 350 AM EDT Thursday .

Generally quiet weather is expected through the long term forecast period. Surface high pressure builds across the local area Monday leading to continued dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures moderate Monday and Tuesday as the flow turns southerly with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Another front approaches from the NW Tuesday afternoon and crosses the area Tuesday night, but precipitation chances still appears fairly limited with the front at this time. High pressure returns for Wednesday.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Thursday .

Occluded area of low pressure is over Lake Erie as of 12z, with a cold front now east of KRIC and extending to the Florida Panhandle. The wind is SSE 8-12kt locally just ahead of the front at sunrise. Showers in association with the front will cross the rest of the area over the next 6-12 hours into this evening. Rain is tapering off at RIC and as the cold front will be slow to cross the region, the highest rain chance extends to PHF/ORF/ECG from mid to late morning into Thursday evening, and SBY primarily this afternoon and tonight. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at all sites later this morning, with occasional IFR/LIFR vsby possible in heavier rain showers. The wind is expected to gradually shift from S to SW late this morning into the afternoon, then shifting to WNW behind the front this evening into early Friday morning.

Outlook: Some lingering low clouds and showers hang on near the coast into early Friday morning, potentially keeping MVFR in the picture a bit longer for ORF/ECG. Otherwise, drying out with VFR conditions are expected to return no later than sunrise Friday. VFR conds then persist over the weekend and through Monday as high pressure builds into the area.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Cold front is approaching the coast from the west this morning. SSE winds have increased. Winds are currently 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, mainly north of the NC/VA border. Seas are 5-7 ft, and approaching 8 ft off the MD coast. Winds are expected to continue to be SSE 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt until the front passes later on today. Winds will likely decrease to below SCA criteria by early this afternoon for the Chesapeake Bay and all tidal river, then by this evening for Atlantic coastal waters as the front slowly moves off the coast. Westerly winds 5-10 kt behind the cold front this evening into early tonight. As the high pressure and cooler/drier air moves into the region later on tonight, winds will become northerly and increase to around 15 kt with a few gusts near 20 kt early Friday morning. SCAs may need to be reissued for the Chesapeake Bay for Friday morning as winds become NNW 15-20 kt. In additions, SCAs may need to be extended for Atlantic coastal waters if seas remain elevated into Friday.

Much quieter marine conditions for the weekend. High pressure will be over the region through early next week. Light northerly winds on Saturday 5-10 kt, then SW winds 5-15 kt Sunday and into next week. Seas will diminish to 3-4 ft Saturday and 2-3 ft Sunday into next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 1100 AM EDT Thursday .

Winds have turned to the W to NW across the upper Ches Bay and Tidal Potomac. Tidal anomalies are peaking at 2 to locally ~2.5 feet above normal at Cambridge/Bishop's Head/Lewisetta, but this is happening right around low tide. Expect anomalies to fall from now this afternoon as high tide nears. CBOFS is forecasting a strong ebb tide this aftn-early evening. Will maintain Coastal Flood Advisories for the upper bay/tidal Potomac. Water levels will likely exceed moderate flood stage at Bishop's Head (and may even touch moderate at Lewisetta). However, will not issue warnings unless anomalies do not fall as fast as currently forecast. Have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the bay side of the VA Ern Shore for this aftn's high tide.

Lastly, will maintain the Coastal Flood Advisory through 18z/2pm today for areas on the north side of the Albemarle Sound (including the Back Bay area of VA Beach). Edenton/Elizabeth City are cresting near minor flood thresholds, and water levels here should fall later today.

Will continue with a high rip risk today, although the greater threat will be large breaking waves as opposed to rip currents (but this warrants a Beach Hazards Statement nevertheless).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ015>017-030>032-102. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>634-638.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . AJZ/LKB/MAM SHORT TERM . LKB/MAM LONG TERM . AJB/MAM AVIATION . AJZ/MAM MARINE . CP/ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi75 min WNW 5.1 G 22 73°F 77°F1011.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi75 min WNW 13 G 19 1012.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi75 min NW 14 G 16 78°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 31 mi51 min W 9.7 G 16 63°F 1013.6 hPa
44072 32 mi51 min NW 12 G 14 64°F 78°F1 ft
44089 32 mi49 min 74°F7 ft
CHBV2 32 mi75 min WNW 8.9 G 11 70°F 1010.9 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi49 min 76°F6 ft
44087 35 mi49 min 77°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi75 min NW 9.9 G 12 66°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi75 min W 7 G 11 70°F 1012.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi75 min WNW 8 G 9.9 66°F 78°F1011.3 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi75 min WNW 8 G 11 68°F 1012.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi75 min 78°F1011.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi75 min W 5.1 G 6 67°F 1011.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi75 min NW 9.9 G 13 68°F 1012 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi90 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast74°F-28°F1%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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E8E4E4CalmE4----SE3------SE4--SE6SE7SE8SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Thu -- 04:25 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:42 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:01 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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42.81.70.700.10.92.13.34.24.84.94.43.42.31.30.50.20.71.62.73.74.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:50 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:18 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.1210.2-00.41.42.53.54.34.64.43.62.61.60.80.30.41.12.13.13.84.24.2

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