Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM

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FXUS61 KRNK 271803 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure will cover the region through Monday with a mix of sun and clouds expected today transitioning to mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday, allowing for much warmer temperatures. Rain chances return by Tuesday with a frontal passage and additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours,for the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. High confidence for well above normal temperatures Sunday.
2. POPs added late this afternoon/early this evening in southeast WV.

A weak upper level shortwave seen on water vapor satellite traversing across KY early this afternoon will move over a building upper level ridge north of I-64 late this afternoon and early this evening. A few showers associated with this feature were noted on radar in central KY, and with relatively higher theta-e air across WV into far southwest Virginia, allowing for these showers to potentially spread into southeast WV into the early evening hours. As a result, introduced small POPs in portions of southeast WV between 22Z-02Z.

Visible satellite imagery shows a swath of cumulus clouds emerging out of the Atlantic Ocean and spreading north and northeast into western NC and into southern Virginia. This may may manifest into some stratus across the southern Blue Ridge into NW NC tonight. High and mid level clouds are also expected which should allow low temperatures Sunday morning to be a few degrees warmer compared to this morning.

The big weather story tomorrow will be the abnormally warm temperatures as an upper level ridge, 1-2 standard deviations above normal, continues to build over our area. With good subsidence, and more sunshine, leaned toward the warmer guidance for highs Sunday with 80 to 85 highs likely for many areas east of the Blue Ridge.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages: 1. Above normal temperatures through midweek.
2. Showers and storms possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Upper level ridging will expand northward from the southeast into the Mid Atlantic through the beginning of the week, while surface high pressure also builds over most of the eastern US.
Increasing 500mb heights suggest an increasing trend in temperatures through Tuesday. Monday looks to be the warmest day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the east, and upper 70s in the west, as southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front draws warmer and more moist air into the region from the Gulf. Cloud cover ahead of the front may dampen diurnal heating on Tuesday, but with ample warm air advection, thinking temperatures will still reach above normal, though a few degrees cooler than Monday.

As an upper shortwave trough crosses the area Tuesday, with an associated surface low and cold front, probabilities for showers and storms increase Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecast CAPE values are near 500 J/kg through the afternoon, aided by increasing dewpoints and heating, and with enough shear in the environment, could see scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages: 1. Warm temperatures persist through the week.
2. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms.

The upper shortwave trough and cold front from Tuesday will be to the east of the area by Wednesday morning. The trough will help to flatten the upper ridge, leading to more zonal 500mb flow for Wednesday. The ridge starts to build once again while surface high pressure expands into the region from off the southeastern US coast.
Generally southerly and southeasterly flow around the high will help temperatures start an increasing trend again and into the end of the work week. With the influx of moisture and warm temperatures, there are chances for showers and storms each afternoon and evening Wednesday and Thursday.

Through the second half of the week, an upper trough will deepen over the central US and track northeastward into the Great Lakes and southern Canada. With a stronger cold front associated with this upper level feature reaching the Appalachians by Friday, expecting better coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the area to end the work week. Deterministic long range models differ in how quickly this front approaches and moves through the region, so timing of showers and storms is uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 114 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions were reported at all TAF sites early this afternoon and confidence is high that these conditions will persist through Sunday afternoon with the exception of KLWB where a short period of MVFR to IFR conditions for local fog and low cigs is possible early Sunday morning. A passing shower is possible near KLWB late this afternoon to early this evening as an upper level disturbance passes but no restrictions to visibility are expected at the airport.

A few wind gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon at KBLF will diminish this evening with southwest winds 5 to 15 MPH expected at all TAF sites Sunday. Confidence is high for good flying conditions Sunday with the exception of early Sunday morning at KLWB.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Monday should be mainly VFR with southwest winds. NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday with -TSRA areawide and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible again Wednesday afternoon.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Falling Creek entrance
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Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Richmond (river locks)
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Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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