Wednesday, October20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:27PM Wednesday October 20, 2021 10:00 AM EDT (14:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:44PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 706 Am Edt Wed Oct 20 2021
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to less than 1 foot and light chop in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves flat.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
ANZ600 706 Am Edt Wed Oct 20 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds into the southeast through Thursday. A cold front crosses the region late Friday. Weak high pressure builds back in from the north for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 201353 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 953 AM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds across the area through Thursday. A cold front crosses the region late Friday. Weak high pressure builds back in from the north for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday .

The latest analysis indicates an upper ridge axis from the Gulf coast through the TN and lower OH Valley, with an upper trough farther upstream over the central/northern high Plains. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered from northern FL to the Carolinas. High clouds associated with a weak shortwave trough aloft are moving offshore leaving behind a sunny sky. Temperatures range through the 50s to the lower 60s as of 930 AM, after morning lows that ranged from the 40s inland, to the lower to mid 50s along the coast. With the sfc high slowly sliding off the SE coast this aftn, a W/SW wind in the low levels will allow highs today to trend up a few more degrees compared to Tue, generally ranging from the mid to upper 70s over the CWA (a few locations may flirt with 80F). Mainly clear tonight, and again seasonably cool with lows 45-50F inland and lower/mid 50s toward the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday .

On Thursday, the sfc high moves farther offshore and with low pressure moving into the Great Lakes, a strengthening SW low level flow will become a bit breezy. Still mainly sunny with a few clouds moving in from the W late. Highs Thursday are forecast to be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Thursday night, this cold front is expected to be pushing along and east of the Appalachians toward the local area, but the front weakens considerably with the flow aloft from the WSW. Mainly dry Thursday evening with increasing mid and high clouds. However, there is a slight chance for mainly light showers later Thursday night, primarily over the SE 1/2 of the CWA. Mild for late October with SW flow ahead of the front and lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, with mid 60s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. The cold front settles across southern VA and NE NC By Friday. Deep moisture is limited, with only 30-40% PoPs across the SE half of the area, and 20% or less farther N/NW. The 20/00z ECMWF is still on the wetter- side of the guidance, but looks a bit suspect with a compact bullseye of QPF over SE VA Fri morning. Models depict some CAPE across far SE VA/NE NC, but have opted not to include thunder at this time given rather weak lapse rates both aloft and in the lower levels. Partly to mostly cloudy with forecast highs ranging from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s SE.

The upper trough is forecast to swing through the region later Friday night into Saturday morning. In general, the 20/00z guidance has remained similar to the previous runs, will keep Chance PoPs (30-40%) are forecast toward the coast Friday evening, tapering to 20% over the Piedmont then tapering down later Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows in the upper 40s NW with mainly 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday .

Overall there is a lot of model disagreement through the medium range, especially by Mon-Tue. Generally dry wx with skies becoming partly-mostly sunny Sat and highs in the upper 60s N to 70-75F elsewhere. Weak high pressure builds in from the N Sat night/Sun, bringing mostly clear conditions and lows in the 40s and 50s. From later Sun into Mon, models really start to show a lot of spread with respect to a quick moving system potentially leading to increased clouds and pcpn chances. Will continue mainly with the NBM/blends though did add a slight chance PoP Mon-Mon night across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Have capped PoPs at 20% given all of the uncertainty. Will keep Tue mainly dry for now with a blended solution allowing high pressure N of the area to build S during that period (though many of the deterministic models have precip moving in on Tue).

Highs will be mainly in the 60s Sunday-Tuesday (around 70F S), Lows mainly in the 40s and 50s Saturday night-Monday night.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday .

Quiet conditions continue through the TAF period with just some passing high clouds this morning and clear conditions this aftn into tonight. W to SW winds will avg 5-10kt.

Outlook . High pressure will continue to prevail Thursday with dry wx/VFR conditions continuing. A SW wind will increase to 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday afternoon. This cold front may bring a few showers from early Fri morning into Friday night, with the best chance being across southern VA and NE NC. Mainly dry Saturday and Sunday behind the cold front, with only a slight chance of showers toward the coast Saturday morning.

MARINE. As of 420 AM EDT Wednesday .

Early this morning, a broad area of high pressure was centered over the Mid Atlc and SE U.S., while an area of low pressure was centered just east of the Canadian Maritimes. Winds were W 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

High pressure will slide off the SE coast and out to sea tonight through Thu. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will track across the Great Lakes and into SE Canada/far northern portions of the NE Thu into Thu night, with a trailing cold front dropping ESE over the local waters Fri into Fri night. S/SW winds ramp up Thu aftn through Thu night ahead of the approaching cold front with a period of SCA conditions possible. However, uncertainty remains regarding how early the SCA-level winds will begin (Thu aftn or Thu evening), and given that the event is >36 hrs away, will hold off on headlines for this update cycle. There will also be the potential for SCA conditions for the northern coastal waters Thu night due to 5 ft seas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM . AJZ/LKB LONG TERM . AJZ/LKB AVIATION . LKB MARINE . RMM/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi151 min WSW 1.9 48°F 1022 hPa47°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi67 min W 7G8.9 58°F 70°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA5 mi65 minENE 710.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1024.4 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi67 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds57°F49°F74%1023.4 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair51°F47°F87%1023.7 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi67 minWSW 310.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCI

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4SW45SW7W9----SW6--0W6W7303SW954S11053NW8NE7
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NW10NW5NW5NW8633S7SW7W8W6W4W34340W12

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:34 AM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:30 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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