Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gwynn, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:03PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 945 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers until early morning. A chance of tstms after midnight. Showers likely late.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft late. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 945 Pm Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will approach the waters from the west tonight, and will cross the marine area late Thursday. Canadian high pressure builds in this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gwynn, VA
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location: 37.56, -76.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 230000 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will continue to approach the area from the west tonight, and will cross the region on Thursday. Canadian high pressure builds in from Friday into the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday .

The latest analysis continues to show strong (~1000mb) sfc low pressure over western PA/eastern OH, with the associated cold front S along the Appalachians. Moist SSE llvl flow has pushed PWs of 1.90" to 2.10" into most of the CWA (values are still lower at the coast and eastern shore (1.50" to 1.70"). Generally seeing the next batch of moisture across the region with likely to categorical PoPs well inland and chc PoPs closer to the coast (only 10-20% eastern shore). While warm rain processes are occurring and periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue into this evening, storms have been moving enough and lasting only 30 minutes or so at a given location so that flooding concerns have been minimal. Have opted against a Flash Flood Watch though locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be possible (especially in urban areas). The latest Day 1 ERO has expended the slight risk a bit farther to the E and now includes western sections of the CWA. It is also worth noting that the latest 12Z/HREF runs of 3-hr QPF amounts do not show much chance for 3"/3 hrs (less than 10%). Some locally stronger wind gusts to around 40 mph have been observed, and this will continue into the early evening. SPC maintains a marginal SVR risk in the piedmont.

Previously referenced model consensus takes core of the upper low cutoff over the OH Valley slowly north over the Great Lakes by tonight/early Thu. Attendant strong sfc low pressure becomes occluded over the Great Lakes, with a secondary trough of low pressure tracking E and crossing the local area during the day Thu. Areal coverage likely dropping off a bit this evening, owing to weakening instability with loss of heating and as llvl moisture begins to pool along the approaching front. Will have lower PoPs through midnight, then ramping up overnight into Thu morning, categorical PoPs W and CHC to likely PoPs elsewhere overnight. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

Likely to categorical PoPs finally push east of the I95 corridor Thu morning into the aftn with the front slowly swinging through the region. SPC Marginal Convective Risk is over the northern neck and eastern shore for Thu, as the front pushes to the coast. Instability will be modest, but with height falls and markedly cooler air rushing in, some gusty winds in convection can obviously not be ruled out Thu. Will limit thunder chcs to I-95 and east late Thu morning into Thursday evening. Rain then tapers off inland Thu aftn. Highs in the low to mid 70s inland . 75 to 80 along the coast (though with fallingtemperatures near the coast in the aftn).

Additional total QPF ~1.00-1.50" out in the piedmont, tapering to ~1" RIC metro . to 0.50" to 1.00" east of I-95 to the coast. Again must be noted that significantly higher amounts possible, especially in potentially training heavy showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday .

By Thu evening, much drier air will be over most of the region as the sfc cold front pushes off the coast. The front will linger just offshore into Fri morning however, so will keep some likely PoPs in the evening along the coast and eastern shore, gradually diminishing to low chc PoPs for showers into early Friday morning. Post- frontal CAA sets in, resulting in lows to drop to the upper 40s/lower 50s in the Piedmont under clear skies. It will remain much warmer closer to the coast due to clouds and mixing, with lows generally 60-65F.

After some lingering clouds/showers (mainly E) early on Fri, expect gradual clearing through the aftn as the frontal zone pushes farther offshore. For inland areas the entire day should be mainly sunny with dew pts in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will be a little cooler than avg, generally in the mid 70s CWA-wide. Clear/cool Fri night as sfc high pressure settles over the local area. Went on cool side of guidance for most areas, lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s over the inland 2/3 of the CWA (mid 50s urban areas). Near the coast lows will be 55-60F. Mostly sunny and pleasant Sat with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday .

Generally quiet weather is expected through the long term forecast period. A weak surface trough is expected to cross the region Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing a reinforcing shot of drier and cooler air. Surface high pressure builds across the local area Sunday through Monday leading to continued dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s closer to the coast. Temperatures moderate Monday and Tuesday as the flow turns southerly with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Another front approaches from the NW Tuesday afternoon and crosses the area Tuesday night, but precipitation chances still appears fairly limited with the front at this time. High pressure returns for Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday .

Low pressure is centered near Lake Erie as of 00z, with a cold front extending to the south across the central and southern Appalachians. The wind is SE 8-12kt locally ahead of the front, with VFR conditions at the TAF sites, but there are MVFR and localized IFR cigs over the Piedmont. Showers and a few embedded tstms from a few hours ago have dissipated, with only a few light showers lingering across the area. MVFR cigs are expected to reach RIC around and after 02-03z, with VFR conditions continuing at the remaining TAF sites overnight. A band of showers and embedded tstms are expected to accompany the cold front late tonight into Thursday. The cold front will be slow to cross the region with the highest rain chance at RIC late tonight into Thursday morning, PHF/ORF/ECG during the day Thursday, and SBY primarily Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at all sites Thursday, with occasional IFR/LIFR vsby possible in heavy rain. The wind is expected to gradually shift from SE to S tonight, S to SW Thursday morning into the afternoon, then shifting to WNW behind the front.

Some lingering low clouds and showers linger near the coast into early Friday morning. Otherwise drying out with VFR conditions are expected to return Friday through Monday as high pressure builds into the area.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday .

Low pressure is deepening over ern Ohio this afternoon with a trailing cold front extending swd into the srn Appalachians. Meanwhile, high pressure has moved well off the New England coast. The pressure gradient between the approaching cold front and the area of high pressure is resulting in S to SE winds of 15-25 kt with gusts of 30 kt. Have even seen a few 35 kt gusts at elevated locations in the Ches Bay. Seas are 4-5 ft, with waves on the bay of 2-3 ft (perhaps closer to 4 ft right at the mouth of the bay). Winds are anticipated to remain S-SE 15-25 kt through much of Thursday morning. SCAs remain in effect for all marine zones (including the upper rivers) through Thursday aftn/evening. Seas are progged to increase to 5-7 ft by this evening-tonight, with waves in the bay generally in the 3-4 ft range through Thu AM. Cannot rule out 8 ft seas across the nrn coastal waters tonight-Thu. SCA conditions will prevail until the cold front crosses the waters Thursday afternoon. Prevailing gusts will generally be ~30 kt, although will likely continue to see brief gusts to ~35 kt at elevated sites. Showers/isolated tstms may also produce brief higher gusts from this evening-Thu, and a few SMWs may be required. Winds become W at 5-15 kt shortly after the FROPA. Seas will remain elevated through the day on Thursday (and into at least Thu night).

Wind speeds will remain 5-15 kt Thursday evening before increasing to 15-18 kt again with a secondary CAA surge late Thu night-Fri AM. Waves in the bay will diminish to 1-3 ft Friday evening. Seas are progged to drop to ~4 ft by Fri aftn. High pressure becomes centered southwest of the area Friday afternoon and through the weekend. Generally, winds will be N-NE at 10-15 kt Friday afternoon through Saturday AM. Winds become W-NW at ~10 kt through the remainder of the weekend. Seas/waves remain sub-SCA during the remainder of the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday .

Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-1.2 ft above normal in the upper bay/tidal Potomac due to increasing S-SE winds. With persistent 15- 25 kt S-SE winds, tidal anomalies will steadily rise (to around 1.5 ft above normal) in the mid/upper bay through at least tonight. This combined with high astronomical tides will very likely result in minor tidal flooding in some locations on the bay side of the MD Ern Shore (especially Cambridge and Bishop's Head in Dorchester County MD) and along the tidal Potomac. Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory from this evening through tonight for Dorchester County as well as Northumberland/Westmoreland along the tidal Potomac. Will go with a Coastal Flood Statement for the Crisfield area, where water levels are forecast to crest around or just below minor flood thresholds. Tidal flooding could linger through high tide Thursday aftn/evening, especially if the FROPA is on the later side (and S-SE winds persist longer than expected). Guidance is starting to catch onto this, and will likely need another round of advisories on Thu for the upper bay if this trend persists. Water levels should start falling by late Thu night as northerly winds increase following the FROPA. Not expecting much in the way of tidal flooding issues in the Lower Bay (and on the Atlantic coast).

Lastly, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through 18z Thursday for areas on the north side of the Albemarle Sound (including the Back Bay area of VA Beach). Steady rises in water levels have been observed over the past several hours at gages in Edenton, Elizabeth City, and srn portions of the City of Virginia Beach. With decent S- SE winds expected to continue through tonight, it appears that minor tidal flooding is likely in these locations.

Will continue with a high rip risk through Thursday, although the greater threat will be large breaking waves as opposed to rip currents (but this warrants a Beach Hazards Statement nevertheless).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ015>017- 030>032-102. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>634- 638.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/MAM LONG TERM . AJB AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . CP/ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 6 mi69 min SE 22 G 26 1012.8 hPa (-0.5)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 7 mi51 min SSE 21 G 25 76°F 1013.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi69 min SSE 22 G 25 79°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 24 mi69 min SSE 13 G 17 77°F 78°F1013 hPa (-0.5)
44072 26 mi51 min SSE 14 G 14 76°F 78°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 28 mi69 min SSE 16 G 19 79°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 30 mi69 min SSE 9.9 G 15 79°F 79°F1011 hPa (-0.6)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 32 mi99 min S 1 73°F 1012 hPa73°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 34 mi51 min SE 19 G 23 76°F 78°F2 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi69 min SSE 13 G 19 77°F 78°F1011.2 hPa (-0.6)
CHBV2 37 mi69 min SSE 14 G 17 78°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.6)
44087 37 mi73 min 78°F3 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 41 mi69 min SSE 16 G 19 79°F 1011.7 hPa (-0.6)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 44 mi69 min SE 13 G 17 79°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.4)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 44 mi69 min SE 12 G 17 77°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.6)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 44 mi69 min 78°F1011.6 hPa (-0.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi69 min SSE 20 G 23
44089 45 mi73 min 74°F5 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi69 min SSE 19 G 24 78°F 77°F1012.2 hPa (-0.3)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi69 min SW 6 G 8.9 79°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA20 mi1.9 hrsSSE 10 G 1510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

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1 day agoE7E7E7E6E5E5E4E5E4E3E3--E3E5E5E4E5SE6SE9
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2 days agoE5E3--CalmE3CalmE4CalmCalmNE3------E7E7E9E9E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Windmill Point Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:17 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.10.80.50.30.10.10.20.50.81.11.31.31.210.70.40.20.10.20.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Windmill Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia (3)
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Windmill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:25 AM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:47 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.310.70.40.20.10.20.50.91.31.51.61.51.20.90.50.30.10.20.40.71.1

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