Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 12:51 AM   Moonset 10:16 AM

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ANZ631 Chesapeake Bay From Windmill Point To New Point Comfort Va- 401 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wed night - E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 401 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remain anchored off the coast today. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 300715 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and out to sea today, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend, as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, a strong upper level ridge remains in place across the eastern US and ~1020mb high pressure is centered off the southeast US coast. Skies are generally mostly clear with a few higher clouds beginning to approach the region from the west. Mild early this morning with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s (a few locations are still in the lower 70s).
Temperatures will generally fall back into the low to mid 60s as we approach sunrise, with a few pockets of upper 50s possible in the typically cooler locations.

High pressure that is centered off the southeast US coast will shift further off the coast and out to sea today as a cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Another very warm day is expected for today with a mostly sunny sky becoming partly sunny (due to increasing high clouds). High temperatures will be fairly similar to yesterday, just a degree or two cooler (generally mid to upper 80s except right along the coast). Dry weather is expected through the daylight hours. Overnight, there is a low chance (~20% or less) for an isolated shower or storm, with the best chances across northwestern portions of the forecast area (closer to the boundary). It will be another mild night with lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves through the local area during the day on Wednesday. Latest CAMs focus the majority of the shower/thunderstorm chances across southeastern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, with the forecast trending drier for locations further northwest. Total QPF will generally be ~0.25" across southeastern portions of the area (locally higher in thunderstorms). Inland, temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to the past couple of days with highs generally forecast in the lower 80s. Closer to the coast and along the MD/VA Eastern Shore, an onshore breeze develops Wednesday afternoon leading to highs in the 70s and possibly upper 60s across the far NE (Ocean City MD). Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset Wednesday evening, with dry conditions returning for Wednesday night. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s. Will have to watch for the potential for some patchy fog formation late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with the NAM being the most aggressive.

Dry and warmer on Thursday as the upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US and high pressure builds at the surface. Highs will range from the mid 80s inland to the 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast (due to an onshore wind). Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s (mid 50s Eastern Shore).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather through Friday.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over New England or just offshore, resulting in continued onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland. Highs on Friday in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the lower 70s to upper 60s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the Eastern Shore).

A cold front will gradually approach from the NW Saturday, gradually crossing/decaying across the area Sunday into Monday. Rain chances increase during the day Saturday, with the highest chances likely Saturday evening into Saturday night. Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temperatures cooler on Saturday with highs in the 60s across the northern and northeastern portions of the area to to the mid to upper 70s across the south. Unsettled conditions will continue Sunday into Monday as the front slowly decays across the local area.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 06Z/30 TAF period. SSW winds will avg 5-10 kt early this morning, with SW winds 10-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon. High clouds will be on the increase today, becoming BKN-OVC later this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook: Showers or thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening (best chances at the SE terminals), with brief flight restrictions possible in any storms. Dry/VFR conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday. There is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions late Friday night through Saturday with the next front.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Strong high pressure remains anchored offshore from the SE CONUS early this morning. A weak cold front/low pressure is located to the NW of local waters. Enough of a pressure gradient exists between these features to allow for breezy conditions. Latest obs indicate SSW winds of 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the day as the aforementioned front approaches the coast. Southerly winds over coastal waters increase to 15-20kt this afternoon. The front is expected to cross local waters by Wed morning. Behind the front, winds diminish to 5-10kt, turning westerly, then to the NE through the day Wed. Onshore flow at 5-10kt then continues through the end of the week.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas of 2-3ft. Waves are 1-2ft. Given breezy conditions today, seas are expected to increase to 3-4ft during the afternoon and evening. May see seas up to 5ft out near 20nm, but will hold off on issuing SCAs for now. Seas drop back to 2- 3ft by Wed evening. Waves stay at 1-2ft through the end of the week.

CLIMATE
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

No record highs were set yesterday, 4/29. SBY has a chance today, while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974 * ORF: 93/1988 * SBY: 86/2017 * ECG: 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Stingray Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:51 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stingray Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Mill Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:26 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mill Creek, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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