Tuesday, December7, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:26PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 1:32 AM EST (06:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 9:11PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.6, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLMK 070542 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1242 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

. Updated Aviation Discussion .

Forecast Update. Issued at 818 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

Forecast remains on track overnight. Wind gusts have subsided since sunset and temperatures have dropped below the freezing mark in many locations with mostly clear skies in place. Winds will remain light out of the north for most of the overnight period, and IR satellite reveals some high-based clouds that should push in from the west closer to midnight. The combination of light winds and cloud cover should keep the low temperature forecast in check (low to mid 20s).

Short Term. (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

Negatively-tilted upper level trough is swinging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. More zonal, fast flow aloft is forecast tonight into Tuesday. Strong cold air advection is already ongoing in the lower levels via breezy northwest flow. Sfc cold front has pushed well off to the southeast, now cutting SW through western VA/NC down to the western Gulf Coast.

Cold high pressure is now over eastern Nebraska and is forecast to move east over central Indiana Tuesday morning. As the sfc high approaches tonight, sfc flow veers northerly and diminishes due to a relaxing pressure gradient. The night begins mainly clear with increasing high clouds during the early morning hours of Tuesday. It will be cold with lows in the low to mid 20s. Tuesday looks dry during the daytime and chilly. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 30s in southern Indiana to the lower 40s in southern Kentucky. High cloud cover will continue to increase in coverage through the day, especially north of the Cumberland Pkwy.

Long Term. (Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY .

. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS .

==================================== Synoptic Overview ====================================

An active, yet progressive weather pattern for early December is expected to continue across the Ohio Valley. A quick moving short wave trough axis will skirt through the region early in the period and will produce some light snow showers for the northern portions of the region. A brief period of quiet weather is expected for mid- week before the pattern amplifies again and active weather returns. A strong positive tilted trough axis is forecast to push eastward toward the Ohio Valley by late week. A strong southwest flow ahead of the system will bring milder conditions along with an increase in rich Gulf moisture. Showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe) will be possible in the Friday-Saturday period. Excessive rainfall from this system may lead to flash flooding and eventual river flooding over portions of the region.

==================================== Model Discussion/Trends/Preference ====================================

The 06/12Z models seem to be well initialized at the start of the period with no noticeable errors. In the near term, the models all agree with a weak short wave trough axis coming through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Cold airmass will be in place to support wintry precipitation in the form of snow. The latest trends in the models continue to favor areas of southern Indiana and into southern Ohio for the best chances of snow with some light accumulations possible. With this system, will lean on the NAM/HRRR solutions here given their better horizontal/vertical resolutions.

For the late week period, we still see a little bit of model spread with the development of precipitation on Thursday. The Euro is a little more aggressive here than the GFS. However, the model spread decreases for Friday/Saturday as all the models show positively tilted trough swinging through. All of the models have strong vertical shear for late Friday and into Saturday ahead of the front along with plenty of moisture and some instability. While those ingredients would generally support a cool season high shear/low CAPE scenario, there is quite a bit of parallel flow ahead of the front. Perhaps the larger weather impact here will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding as the slow movement of the system may result in higher residence time of storms training over the same areas. Given anticendent rainfall earlier in the week, the risk of river basin flooding will be much more elevated.

Model QPF for the late week period is similar with the models suggesting 2-4 inches of rainfall possible. The ensembles are a bit lighter overall, but a blend of the GFS/Euro here looks to be a good start for the forecast.

==================================== Sensible Weather Impacts/Risks ====================================

A weak short wave trough axis will push through the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Snow showers are expected to develop ahead of this system courtesy of decent upglide along the 295K surface. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air in the surface to 850 hPa layer across much of KY, but moisture is a bit higher once you get further north of the Ohio River. So there remains a bit of uncertainty on how much QPF we can squeeze out of the atmosphere as this wave moves through. Generally speaking, light snow showers and/or flurries will be likely in areas north of the WK/BG Parkways in KY with the highest risk of light snow accumulations remaining in areas along and north of the Ohio River. Temperatures overnight will be below freezing, so some negative travel impacts will be possible during the Wednesday morning commute. As of this writing, our current thinking is that a half to an inch of snow will be possible in our northern row of southern Indiana counties. A light dusting to perhaps as much as a few tenths could fall as far south as the WK/BG Parkways. Given that this could be our first wintry bout of weather of the season, will be issuing an SPS to highlight this risk with the afternoon package.

Skies should clear out on Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into the lower 40s across southern Indiana and into the Bluegrass region. Elsewhere mid 40s will be found in those parts of KY from the WK/BG Parkways south to the Cumberland Parkway. South of the Cumberland, highs will top out in the upper 40s. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the upper 20s. Dry and milder conditions are on tap for Thursday with highs warming into the mid-upper 50s across southern IN and the northern half of KY. A few spots along the KY/TN border region may get to 60.

By Thursday night, we will be well established in a southwesterly flow pattern. The models all suggest that some isentropic and warm advection lift will move into the region resulting in scattered showers developing as early as Thursday night and continue into the day on Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 40s to around 50 with highs on Friday surging into the mid-upper 60s. A few spots could top 70 once again across the southern half of the state. It is possible that some record high temps across the region could be tied or broken on Friday.

By Friday night, aforementioned positively tilted trough axis will move toward the region from the west. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in advance of this wave. There will be plenty of vertical wind shear present and some instability to work with so an event similar to last night will be be possible with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms being possible. Best chances of strong storms looks to be in the Friday night period. The overall significance of severe will be dependent on instability and how much parallel flow we get ahead of the front. Right now, all the models show this and that could result in more isolated severe than perhaps a widespread event. Overall, I think the higher concern is the heavy rainfall with this system. The trough axis will be moving fairly slow and many areas could see a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. With quality Gulf moisture expected, rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are certainly possible. This rainfall will be falling on already moist ground and flash flooding and possible eventual river basin flooding will be possible.

The front looks to push through the region Saturday afternoon and this will allow the precipitation to diminish from west to east. A surge of colder air will accompany the frontal passage and this cold air could catch up with the back edge of precipitation leading to a change over to snow prior to ending. The overall confidence in that part of this system is rather low at this time. Cooler and drier conditions are then expected for Sunday and into Monday.

==================================== Forecast Confidence ====================================

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night:

High confidence on precipitation type Low-medium confidence on precipitation accumulations

Friday - Monday:

Medium to high confidence on thunderstorm/heavy rainfall chances Medium confidence on total precipitation amounts.

==================================== Long Range Discussion Beyond Monday and Into Week Two ====================================

Looking into the deeper part of the extended forecast period, we are expecting the MJO to start off week two in phase space 6. The extended models suggest that the MJO will continue to be a slowly propagating signal with a possible transition over into phase space 7 by 12/20. There is fairly good agreement here with the other teleconnection patterns which are forecast to be in a +NAO/+AO/+EPO/- PNA configuration. Given these teleconnections and the continued slow eastward propagation of the MJO signal, the upcoming pattern for mid-December looks to feature above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation as a few systems look to pass through the region.

Experimental signal analysis shows a little bit of a downturn in overall activity during the period, so we may have a little bit of a drier weather period. However, we should see a signal crossing the region around 12/18 or 12/19, give or take a day or so.

After 12/20 or so, there appears to be a developing signal of a colder pattern that may emerge for our area. Up first, we expect the MJO to push over into phase 7 and perhaps continue to phase 8 as the global models are stronger with a push of convection getting into the central Pacific. Second, a -EPO pattern looks to emerge after the 20th as well. It appears that a very strong upper low may develop near Okhotsk, Russia which would lead to significant ridging downstream across Alaska (-EPO pattern). Finally, the other teleconnection patterns such as the NAO and AO are forecast to trend negative after the 20th. The only teleconnection pattern that doesn't look all that great is the PNA as it still may be negative, but the models are trending it more positive after the 20th.

It should be noted that the switch to a colder pattern is not instantaneous with regards to changes in the teleconnection patterns. I suspect it will take several days for a transition to take place if all the elements come together as outlined above. Interestingly enough, the experimental signal analysis technique suggests a signal passage around the Christmas holidays. I suspect the turn to a colder regime may follow behind that system.

Aviation. (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1241 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

VFR conditions prevail at this hour and will continue to do so under Sct to Bkn upper level clouds. Winds will be light and variable, generally 5 knots or less through much of the period, until they eventually settle on a light easterly component by early this evening. Ceilings will lower to the 8 to 10 K foot range by evening, with some flurries and/or light snow possible at HNB/SDF/LEX. There is a dry layer to overcome in the low levels, but do think we could see some vis restrictions in light snow heading into the overnight. Mentioned Prob30 for now. Some light accums could occur before daybreak Wednesday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.

Update . DM Short Term . EBW Long Term . MJ Aviation . BJS


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi36 minNW 410.00 miOvercast26°F23°F89%1026.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTK

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
This dayS12S14
G22
S8W8SW7W14
G21
W6W9W12
G19
NW11
G18
W9
G18
NW9
G17
W11
G20
--W7W7W5W4W3W3W3NW30NW4
1 day agoE8E8NE7NE9E8NE5--E8E6SE7SE8S14S10S9S14
G22
S11
G16
S12S13S12
G21
S15S12S15
G25
S11S16
G22
2 days agoSW5S30N5N7N6N5N11N8NE10NE8NE8N9N7NE7N6NE4NE3N7NE3N6NE7NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.