Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 7:06PM Saturday October 16, 2021 5:28 AM EDT (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:39PMMoonset 2:44AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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location: 37.6, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 160721 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Short Term. (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Current radar shows the main line of convection just ahead of the cold front moving east of our CWA with scattered post-frontal showers lingering across southern Indiana and central KY. Regional observations reveal the colder airmass filtering into the area as temperatures range from low 50s across western KY while eastern KY is still in the upper 60s. Expect showers to diminish within the next few hours with low clouds giving way to clearing skies around sunrise.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows deep troughing across the MS Valley with a notable dry slot pushing into the OH Valley. Over the next 24 hours, the upper trough will continue to push east as surface high pressure builds across TX and into areas east resulting in a tight pressure gradient with gusty NW winds 15-25mph. Resultant CAA will cause temperatures to be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal with highs on the day in the low to mid 60s. Clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to fall to the coldest we've seen since May with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. Wouldn't be surprised if a few of our valleys experienced some light frost, but current forecast keeps us warm enough to avoid any frost headlines.

Long Term. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Sunday through Friday .

==================================== Synoptic Overview ====================================

A fairly amplified upper level pattern is expected to continue throughout the upcoming extended forecast period. Upper troughing over the eastern US will give way to building mid-level heights during the early part of the work week. Upper ridging will build into the Ohio Valley resulting in dry and pleasant conditions through the middle of the week. By late Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will break down and another mid-level trough axis will swing through the Ohio Valley. This feature will bring a period of unsettled weather to the region mainly on Thursday as a cold front pushes through the region. Colder and drier temps will follow in the wake of the system through next weekend.

==================================== Model Discussion/Trends/Preferences ====================================

Overall model solutions through mid-week remain remain in remarkable agreement between the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models. No real noticeable trends were noted through mid-week. A little bit of spread was noted for Thursday and beyond with the next upper level wave coming through. However, the overall spread is within the normal spread range at day 6-7. For this forecast, we plan on keeping a blend of the GFS/Euro through the period which keeps the previous continuity of the forecast and adds an extension towards day 6-7.

==================================== Sensible Weather and Impacts ====================================

Cooler and drier weather will start off the period with highs on Sunday topping out in the lower 60s across the Bluegrass region. Mid 60s are expected across the I-65 corridor and points west. Another cool night is expected Sunday night, with the eastern valleys dropping into the upper 30s, while the central and western parts of the CWA probably will see temps bottom out around 40.

Monday through Wednesday will feature dry conditions with a gradual increase in temperatures. Highs on Monday will warm into the upper 60s in the east with lower 70s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should see daytime highs top out in the lower 70s. Overnight lows will remain cool with lows in the 40s.

The next weather system will push into the region late Wednesday and Thursday as aforementioned upper trough axis pushes through the region. This will drag a surface cold front through the region bringing a round of showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms if enough instability becomes available. Thursday will feature temps in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Cooler and drier weather looks to arrive just in time for the upcoming weekend. Temps will be cooler though with highs on Friday in the lower to mid 60s. Lows will likely drop into the 40s Friday night.

==================================== Forecast Confidence ====================================

Forecast confidence on temperatures and precipitation are medium to high through the forecast period.

==================================== Beyond Friday and into Week Two ====================================

Longer range models continue to show high latitude blocking over Canada by late next week and into the following week. Upper troughiness is expected over the Ohio Valley by next weekend and heights may fall enough that some sort of closed upper low may develop. A pocket of cold air will push southward into the Ohio Valley and may deliver a more widespread of frost and light freezing conditions by 10/25. Continued high latitude blocking is expected to persist throughout the remainder of the month. This will result in a series of weather systems coming into the western US coast and then migrate eastward across the US resulting in episodic precipitation with generally below normal temps for the Ohio Valley.

Aviation. (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

IMPACTS: MVFR/IFR CIGs to begin the period. Gusty winds.

DISCUSSION: Latest surface analysis places the cold front just upstream of LEX. Radar continues to show the main line of convection along and just ahead of the front pushing east of LEX. Satellite and regional observations show MVFR CIGs with patchy IFR behind the front along with strong NW winds with gusts 15-25kt. There appears to be an abrupt MVFR/VFR line that will push through HNB within the first two hours of the period and spread across the other TAF sites by sunrise. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the period with continued gusty NW winds, which should subside around sunset.

CONFIDENCE: Medium to high on all forecast elements.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.

Short Term . CG Long Term . MJ Aviation . CG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi33 minNW 11 G 1810.00 miLight Drizzle53°F53°F99%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTK

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
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2 days ago0E3E4E5E3E5E5E3E4S3SE4SE3E5E5E4E3SE40SE5SE6S6S7S6S3

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