Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 3:55 AM   Moonset 4:03 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KVEF 041953 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1253 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A potent storm system will move across the region tonight and Sunday bringing widespread strong winds and much cooler temperatures. High elevation snow in the southern Sierra will spread across parts of southern Nevada tonight and Sunday leading to a dusting of snow in the mountains. Light winds will return Monday then breezy periods with temperatures a little below can be expected much of the coming week.

SHORT TERM
Through Monday night.

Winds were ramping up across the region and will continue to increase from the south-southwest through this afternoon then will peak during the evening/overnight hours as a cold system plunges down from the northwest. The trajectory and strength of the low will result in one of the more significant wind events this season as strong deep layer winds in its base spread over our region tonight.
This will be favorable for high downslope winds from the southern Sierra/White Mountains of Inyo County to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada this evening and overnight. Gusts of 60-80 mph are indicated by high res model cross sections and supported by NBM point probability forecasts. NBM probabilities of gusts over 40 mph range from 80-100 percent across most of our forecast zones under a Wind Advisory, especially between 03Z and 15Z Sunday as a concentrated wind belt traverses the area from northwest to southeast.

A noteworthy trend from the latest model ensembles is a fairly rapid decrease in wind speeds across the Spring Mountains between 16Z and 18Z. The valid time of the High Wind Warning for the Spring Mountains was shortened to end at 11 am PDT. Wind speeds will be decreasing across much of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona late Sunday morning through early afternoon, but may hang on around the Barstow/Twentynine Palms area through late afternoon. No change to the expiration time of 5 PM for the Wind Advisory for these zones, but the potential for widespread gusts over 40 mph will be diminishing through early Sunday afternoon.

Most of the precipitation associated with the system will be intercepted by the southern Sierra through this evening. The forecast of 2-3" of new snow at Aspendell remains largely unchanged and more significant snow amounts will be confined near the crest.
There will be sufficient moisture, instability and dynamic forcing for light showers to develop across south central Nevada tonight and Sunday. There is a chance for a light dusting of snow as far south as the Spring Mountains. Less than 1" expected in some of the higher valley floors of central Nye and northern Lincoln Counties.

A high temperature drop of 15-20 degrees will occur for Sunday as the cold system moves overhead. West-northwest breezes spreading over the region on the back side of the exiting systems late Sunday afternoon will diminish fairly quickly overnight leaving fairly light winds for Monday. High temperatures will rebound about 8-10 degrees by Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday.

The area will be under a mostly zonal flow with a touch of a NW component through much, if not all, of the work week as persistent troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across the area. We'll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Friday.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Winds continue to increase with the expectation of wind gusts 30 to 40 knots by mid afternoon lasting into the overnight hours. Sustained winds 20 to 30 knots will transport dust from the southwest, which may result in reduced visibilities from mid afternoon through tonight, though confidence is low on reductions below 4 to 5sm. The potential for sustained winds 35 knots or greater and/or wind gusts 48 knots or greater is generally 15-30%. In addition to winds, mid level clouds will overspread southern Nevada by this evening, generally around 15kft.
Winds will gradually decrease and eventually turn northwest from late morning through the afternoon Sunday as a front moves through the area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Strong and gusty winds to affect all terminals through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Winds will generally be from the southwest with gusts 30 to 40 knots. Winds will initially be more southerly at KBIH within the Owens Valley. Additionally, as precipitation develops along the Sierra crest, there is the potential for some spillover into the Owens Valley and have maintained VCSH for KBIH this afternoon into tonight. Any precipitation that reaches the valley floor will be light. Skies will become broken to overcast as a cold front sweeps northwest to southeast across the region, though ceilings generally look to remain above 10kft. Winds will turn north to northwest on Sunday, first at KBIH and then southward into the afternoon/evening as a cold front moves through the region. Winds will diminish in intensity, but remain elevated 15-25 knots in the wake of the front.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

San Joaquin Valley, CA,