Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southside Chesconessex, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:08PM Sunday January 16, 2022 7:30 PM EST (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 657 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.gale warning in effect through Monday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt after midnight, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft. Rain until early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft late.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft late.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow in the morning.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ600 657 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong low pressure system rapidly intensifies while pushing north of the local waters late tonight. High pressure slowly builds in from the southwest late Monday night through midweek. Another cold front crosses the waters Wednesday night into Thursday, with strong high pressure building in from the northwest on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southside Chesconessex, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 162358 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A potent storm system will lift across the local area tonight into early Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday night through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 200 PM EST Sunday .

Latest analysis reveals secondary sfc low lifting across the Carolina coastal plain this afternoon. Meanwhile, cold Canadian high pressure over the St. Lawrence Valley and coastal New England was analyzed ridging south into the region. Warm nose aloft has nudged NNW along the coastal Carolinas into the southeastern third of the area, turning precipitation over to mainly rain along the SE coast, and a mix of sleet and freezing rain based on sfc obs and Mping reports, which meshes well with KAKQ CC data. Meanwhile, axis of lift is pivoting north across the I-64 corridor into N VA over the next couple of hours, with moderate to locally heavy snowfall reported over the northern half of the area. As that best lift pushes north, expect that the progression over to freezing pcpn (FZRA/IP mix inland, mainly rain I-95 east) will continue as depicted in the current forecast. That said, did add a bit more FZRA/ice accretion in the RIC metro and points NW, with snow totals mainly no more than 2-4" in our far NW (up to 2" over RIC metro, highest NNW), with one to two-tenths of an inch of FZRA across the piedmont. The area of greatest concern locally remains over the far western piedmont zones. As winds ramp up this afternoon and this evening, still concerned for additional potential tree damage and power outages, as well as the travel disruptions we're already seeing before relatively milder air arrives late this evening.

Wind Advisory continues over coastal sections, with gusts to 45 mph expected. Even inland, gusts of 30-40 mph are likely over the western half of the area this evening before backing off late tonight. The system lifts out of the region late tonight, with top-down drying ensuing. Some lingering light mixed pcpn possible after midnight as the system exits into the northeast. As colder air sweeps back in late tonight, will need to be vigilant for potential black ice issues overnight.

Cold and blustery on Monday, as winds pick back up out of the west behind the departing system. Winds once again gusty owing to the compressed pressure gradient. Westerly winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph inland, and sustain winds 20-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph along the coast. Partly to mostly cloudy a few stray flurries possible in the afternoon, but mainly just cold and dry. Highs Monday mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, though wind chills remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s throughout the day.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 245 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure will be centered SW of the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to dry/cool conditions. Temperatures will drop into the 20s (possible upper teens Louisa/NW) for much of the area away from the immediate coast. Plenty of sunshine on Tuesday, but still remaining chilly (and slightly breezy). High temperatures Tuesday will generally range from the low to mid 40s. The center of the high will slide by to our south and off the coast by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another chilly night Tuesday night with 20s again for much of the area inland (30s near/along the coast). Remaining dry on Wednesday, but clouds will be on the increase through the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Warmer Wednesday as the flow becomes S to SW ahead of the front with highs ranging from the upper 40s NW to the mid to upper 50s SE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 245 PM EST Sunday .

To start the long term forecast period, a cold front likely dips through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with colder air filtering in from the NW in its wake. Brought PoPs up into the likely category for much of the area during the Wednesday night/early Thursday timeframe. The front moves SE of the local area by Thursday morning and rain chances diminish from NW to SE. Some snowflakes may try to mix in at the tail-end of the precipitation Thursday morning as the colder air filters in. Chilly on Thursday with (early) highs in the upper 30s NW to around 50 SE. Cold Thursday night with low temperatures in the teens for the NW half of the area to the 20s SE.

Attention then turns to the late week period. A colder airmass arrives from the NW Friday into Saturday with the potential for a vigorous shortwave and surface low pressure lifting NE in vicinity of the Carolina coast. Confidence is still low in this time period with certain global deterministic models showing snow across the southern Mid- Atlantic and eastern Carolinas. It is best to use ensemble guidance this far out, and the EPS has 30-50% probs for 1" of snow Friday-Saturday and 20-30% for 3" (which is somewhat notable at this range). The GEFS has somewhat lower values snow probabilities while the CMC is on the higher side. It is important to follow the latest forecasts over the next several days and avoid extreme outliers until details come into better focus. Regardless, it will likely be much colder later next week into the weekend with highs in the upper 20s to 30s, and lows in the teens and 20s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 655 PM EST Sunday .

996mb low pressure is tracking NNE over the coastal plain of eastern NC as of 00z. Rain continues at all sites and any PL/FZRA is NW of RIC. The wind varies from ENE to ESE with speeds of 15-25kt and gusts to 30-35kt. Cigs are primarily IFR with MVFR at ORF, with vsby averaging 2-4sm in rain. Low pressure will continue to track NNE across the area through 06z. The wind is expected to shift from ESE to SW once the low lifts to the north. A few gusts to ~40kt are possible at ECG/ORF through this evening. LLWS has been maintained for this evening. Cigs are expected to improve as the low lifts north of the region, with rain ending from SW-NE during the late evening and early overnight hours. Some MVFR cigs may return early Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected Monday with SCT-BKN SC around 5-8kft. A W wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt is expected Monday.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area. A cold front drops across the area Wednesday night into Thursday with a chc of showers. High pressure builds north of the region Friday as low pressure tracks northeast near or off the Carolina coast.

MARINE. As of 350 PM EST Sunday .

Strong low pressure is currently located across southern NC and will track to the N this evening and continue to rapidly intensify overnight across the northern mid-Atlc region. With high pressure centered off the New England coast, strong ENE winds will shift to the E/SE this evening, and eventually to the SW overnight. Gale headlines are in effect all the waters. E/NE winds are 25 G35kt across the south and generally 15-25 with gusts to 30kt across the N. Seas are 8-10ft S and 5-8ft N. Wind probs cont to show a period of very strong gales to potentially a few storm force gusts within a few hrs either side of 00Z across the srn zones, spreading N into the remainder of the area btwn 01Z- 04Z.

Winds briefly diminish while shifting to the S, then ramp back up as they turn to W/SW between 05-09Z Mon. This is due to deep mixing and the rapidly deepening sfc low north of the local area (on the order of 20mb/6 hr). This results in gale force gusts continuing through the day Mon and into Mon evening along the coastal waters and Bay. Winds diminish late Mon night/Tues as high pressure builds into the area.

Seas rapidly build to btwn 10-15 ft late this aftn/eve (due to the onshore flow), then remain elevated into Mon. High surf advisories remain in effect from later today across the srn waters, spreading north along the Delmarva beaches tonight as near shore waves build to 8 ft or higher due to the strong onshore winds. Nearshore waves subside Mon as the flow turns offshore. Waves in the Bay will also rapidly build, especially across the Lower Bay, where 5-7 ft waves will be possible this eve (and up to 8-9ft at the mouth of the Bay).

Conditions improve by mid week as high pres builds into the area. However, seas may take a while to drop below 5 ft Tue/Tue night. Another front crossing the area into Thu will likely leads to marginal SCA conditions. A strong low pressure system may affect the region by early next weekend as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 350 PM EST Sunday .

Strong low pressure is currently located across southern NC and will track to the N this evening and continue to rapidly intensify overnight across the northern mid-Atlc region. With high pressure centered off the New England coast, strong ENE winds will shift to the E/SE this evening, and eventually to the SW overnight.

This pattern tends to lead to the most significant tidal flooding across the western shore of the middle/upper Bay in response to E to SE winds to Gale force, then as the winds shift to the SW overnight, areas in MD lower shore along the Bay will see a rapid rise in water levels after midnight/early Mon AM.

Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for areas including Windmill Pt, Lewisetta, Bishop's Head, Crisfield, Saxis for at least some moderate flooding, with advisories in effect for the srn Ches Bay and James/York rivers where minor some flooding is expected during the upcoming evening high tide. Strong offshore winds Mon into early Tue will likely lead to blow-out tides and potentially some Low Water Advisories.

Tidal water levels rapidly diminish by later Mon morning as the low pulls away and winds become offshore. In addition to tidal flooding, high surf advisories are in effect along the coast as seas build to 10 to 15 feet. Rough surf may result in instances of beach erosion and dune overwash.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Monday for MDZ021>023. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ024-025. NC . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NCZ015>017-102. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA . Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-509. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for VAZ089-090- 093-096-524. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ077-078-084>086-095- 097-098-523-525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for VAZ084- 086-095-097-100-523-525. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ060>062- 065>069-510. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Monday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ075- 076-079>083-087-088-512-514-516>522. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for VAZ064-511- 513-515. Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EST Monday for VAZ075-077-078- 085. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>634. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ638.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM SHORT TERM . AJB LONG TERM . AJB AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . LKB/MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi42 min E 19G25 48°F 37°F1003.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 17 mi42 min E 31G40 1002.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi30 min E 33G43 44°F 40°F
44089 26 mi34 min 43°F8 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi30 min ENE 29G37 40°F 41°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi42 min E 19G23 42°F 32°F1004.5 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 39 mi42 min ESE 18G27 42°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi42 min ENE 24G32 40°F 37°F1002.8 hPa
44072 43 mi30 min E 29G31 46°F 42°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi42 min E 29G34 49°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi42 min ENE 15G24
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi42 min E 26G31 48°F 42°F999.3 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrN16
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G36
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NW19
G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi55 minE 14 G 245.00 miRain0°F0°F%1004.7 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi36 minE 20 G 256.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy48°F46°F93%1005 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrN4N5NE3NE3NE6NE5N3N4N4NE6N7N5NE6NE7NE6E8E13
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1 day agoN12
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N8N5NW7NW7N5NW5NW4N4N4N5
2 days agoE30N4NW3N5N5N4N5N7N8N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:32 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:33 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:05 PM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Watts Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
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1.3


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