Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:20PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:56 AM EST (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:56PMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 935 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Overnight..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..N winds 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A chance of snow in the evening.
ANZ600 935 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves offshore tonight into Wednesday. An arctic cold front crosses the waters Thursday then stalls along the southeast coast Thursday night. Weak low pressure develops along this front Thursday night into Friday with a potentially stronger low developing and tracking northeast late Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 190523 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1223 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves off the southeast coast today. An arctic cold front crosses the area Thursday then stalls along the southeast coast Thursday night. Low pressure develops along this front Friday then tracks northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night and Saturday. High pressure builds back into the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 1220 AM EST Wednesday .

Mstly clr for the pre-dawn hrs. Temps steady or may rise a bit as winds turn into the SSW.

High pres moves off the coast today. Breezy SW winds arnd the high results in a short-lived "warmup". BKN CI this morn will give way to a BKN AC deck this aftrn as mid lvl moisture begins to increase. Thus, pt-mstly sunny and mild. Highs low-mid 50s except upr 50s se.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EST Tuesday .

Arctic cold front will be approaching the area from the north early Thursday morning. Temperatures Thursday morning will start in the upper 30 to mid 40s. The cold front will quickly drop south during the day on Thursday. There will like be light precip along the cold front as it moves across the area. Temperatures will likely drop to around 32F in Richmond by the afternoon, and Hampton Roads by the evening. As the cold front drops across the area, rain will change to snow during the afternoon and evening with temperatures as low as the upper 20s. Accumulations will be light across the area Thursday night. Generally less than an 1" Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

Southwest flow aloft will continue over the area as the cold front moves into NC. This will bring moisture north and into the cold air Thursday night. Snow will likely begin again across southern VA (There is a chance that there won't be much of a break in the snow between the snow following the cold front and the moisture returning from the SW. Especially across Hampton Roads). The cold air will be shallow over northeastern NC Thursday evening and Thursday night. Precip will likely remain mostly sleet or freezing rain. There may be a brief period Thursday night where snow can mix with the sleet/freezing rain an accumulate to 0.5-1.0". Areas across northeast NC will likely not see a break in the precip before the moisture returns. Sleet and freezing rain is expected to continue through Friday. Ice accumulation will through 7pm Friday is between 0.01" and 0.10" for northeast NC. There may be a glaze of freezing rain across Chesapeake/VA Beach/Suffolk Friday.

There is still high uncertainty with this winter storm. ECMWF continues to be the most aggressive in terms of snow totals across the area. While the GFS shows lesser amounts. The ECMWF has a deeper trough over the mid Mississippi River valley Friday. This deeper trough taps into more Gulf of Mexico moisture and brings it farther north. ECMWF bring snow back across the region Friday, and well inland to the I-81 corridor and north to the MD/PA border. This will bring heavy snow to all of our area, for the exception of northeast NC and far southeast VA where precip will be freezing rain/sleet (rain at the beaches). The GFS brings the snow in later Friday night and keeps the areal coverage to central/southeast VA, northeast NC, and southeast MD. The GFS solution does keep precip mostly snow across southeast VA and northeast NC, with less of a freezing rain threat for our area. The 12z NAM also shows snow returning Friday afternoon, similarly to the ECMWF. Therefore, went with more with the combination of the NAM and ECMWF solution for this forecast.

There is high confidence that very cold air will be over the region late Thursday through Friday night. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most area by sunset Thursday night and fall into the teens inland. Cold air will continue to filter into the region Friday and high will only climb into the mid to upper 20s. If snow moves in faster than expected, temperatures could remain in the low 20s in some areas. However, temperatures will likely fall into the low 20s Friday afternoon/evening as snow begins to spread north. Snow and ice accumulation forecasts goes through 7pm Friday. Snow totals Thursday afternoon and evening along the front are expected to be less than an inch with highest totals of 1.5" across southeast VA. An additional 1-2" is expected to accumulate Friday through 7pm. Highest total then will be across Hampton Roads. Both the GFS and ECMWF show snow continue through the night with the heaviest snow overnight. For central and southeast VA, probabilities still remain high for at least 3" of snow across the area, and a change for accumulations of at least 6".

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1220 AM Wednesday .

Cold high pressure builds into the area early next week. Lowered temps by a few degrees over the weekend given the expected snow/ice on the ground. Highs Sun/Mon in the mid-upr 30s. Lows Sat/Sun nites in the teens except low-mid 20s near the water.

Low pressure moves east while passing north of the area Tue, with its trailing cold front crossing the area Tue nite. Best support for pcpn with this feature stays north of the local area but won't rule out a rain/snow shwr with the fropa Tue nite. Lows Mon nite mid teens-mid 20s. Highs Tue upr 30s-mid 40s.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 1220 AM EST Wednesday .

VFR conditions through the forecast period as high pres moves off the se coast. Look for BKN AC deck from this aftrn on as mid lvl moisture increases across the area. Breezy SW winds (10-20 kts) expected arnd the high.

OUTLOOK . An Arctic cold front drops south across the region on Thurs. Some rain will accompany this feature at the onset then mix with or change over to a brief period of snow before ending late Thurs aftrn thru Thurs night as much colder air pushes south. This front stalls along the SE CONUS coast late in the week with low pressure tracking NE off the Outer Banks Fri nite/Sat.

MARINE. As of 705 PM EST Tuesday .

High pressure over the region this evening will gradually move offshore tonight into Wed. All SCAs for today are no longer in effect. Much calmer conditions tonight with high pressure over the waters, W/NW winds around 5 to 10 knots (except NW winds 10 to 15 knots over the northern coastal waters) gradually become S to SW tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late tonight. The pressure gradient briefly tightens again Wed with SW winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots (20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots over the northern coastal waters). Best chance for any SCA conditions generally exists across the northern Chesapeake Bay and the northern coastal waters for tomorrow. As a result, SCAs are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay north of New Point Comfort as well as the northern coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light for tomorrow. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft across the northern coastal waters Wed with waves building to 2 to 3 ft in the Ches Bay.

The next cold front drops southward on Thursday with strong cold advection behind the boundary. At least SCA conditions look likely from Thursday into Saturday depending on the track and strength of low pressure off the Carolina/Virginia coast. There will also be the potential for some Gale force wind gusts, especially for the coastal waters. Calmer conditions return Saturday night into Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . CP LONG TERM . MPR AVIATION . CP/ERI MARINE . AJB/RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi62 min SSW 5.1G5.1 33°F 39°F1023.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi62 min SSW 9.9G11
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi44 min SSW 16G18 34°F 40°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi86 min WSW 1.9 24°F 1024 hPa22°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi44 min S 7.8G14 35°F 40°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi62 min SSW 5.1G7 34°F 40°F1023 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi62 min SSW 1G2.9 31°F 38°F1022.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi62 min SSE 8.9G8.9 1024.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi62 min SW 5.1G6 35°F 41°F1023.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi62 min SE 8G9.9 35°F 1023.2 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi62 min SSW 7G8 38°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi62 min S 9.9G11 36°F 36°F1023.5 hPa
44072 48 mi44 min SSW 7.8G7.8 35°F 41°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrNW13
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SW24
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SE11
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G32
SW18
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi61 minS 310.00 miFair26°F22°F84%1023.7 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi61 minN 010.00 mi23°F22°F94%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW3W4SW3SW5SW3SW4W8W10
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W8SW8W40SW300000S3S3
1 day agoS14
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2 days agoN4N3N5N3N4N6N7N6N6N6N6N8NE9NE9NE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:31 AM EST     1.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:49 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:44 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:40 AM EST     1.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:58 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:52 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
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