Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM   Moonset 9:29 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 290547 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm threat over eastern Kansas through this evening.

- Ongoing flooding concerns over southeast Kansas.

- A few more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening over eastern Kansas, along/ahead of an approaching weak Pacific cool front, and associated upper forcing approaching from the southwest. Frontal convergence and upper forcing isn't terribly strong, and instability is on the lower side, which should tend to keep storms isolated to widely scattered at best. Modest effective deep layer shear of only 30-40 kts along with the modest at best instability should keep thunderstorm magnitude in check through the evening, although can't rule out a strong to marginally severe storms capable of wind/hail. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected just east/southeast of the forecast area late this afternoon through the evening.

Various areal flooding warnings and river flood warnings remain in effect over southeast Kansas, stemming from excessive runoff from yesterday/last night's thunderstorms. Even though the threat for additional widespread heavy rainfall has ended, any additional pockets of rainfall could aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. So will keep the southeast KS flood watch in effect until about 7 PM this evening.

An active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise returns off-and-on from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, as a wobbly frontal zone and a pair of shortwaves traverses Mid-America. The shear and buoyancy combination favors severe weather potential, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and flooding. Buoyancy/instability looks potentially quite strong all three days given rich low-level moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates, which should compensate for the more modest deep layer shear values. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats, although a few tornadoes are possible, especially during the evening hours when low-level shear strengthens amidst strengthening low-level jet. Stay tuned, as we continue to refine the forecast the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. Isolated showers along a surface cold front will clear far southeast Kansas by around 08z. Some stratus/fog in vicinity of the frontal boundary should stay south of the KCNU terminal, though added tempo MVFR for a time before dawn. Otherwise generally a clear sky, less some cirrus, through Monday evening.
Light winds on Monday in vicinity of a weak surface ridge with southerly flow developing in the afternoon/evening with its passage.

KED

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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