Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 5:03 PM   Moonset 3:27 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 200829 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 329 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A rogue/isolated severe storm possible this afternoon-evening.

- A few severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon-evening.

- Additional chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend.

- Near to above average temperatures the next several days.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

THIS MORNING...Additional hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas, within a zone of continued strong 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport. Thinking these chances will gradually shift into eastern, northeast, and northern Kansas as the morning progresses, and could linger into the afternoon. Ample elevated instability in concert with modest effective deep layer shear may support dime size hail and 50 mph winds with the strongest activity.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...Widespread thunderstorm development is unlikely this afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated subsidence in wake of shortwave energy. However, a remnant outflow boundary currently over Oklahoma is expected to mix northward through the day. While convergence in the vicinity of this old outflow probably won't be particularly strong, it may prove sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this happen, strong buoyancy amidst long hodographs would support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture transport ahead of another approaching upper wave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across mainly Nebraska, although some of this activity could trickle into northern Kansas north of I- 70.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms exists southeast of the KS Turnpike, as the parent western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold front/dryline combo sharpens across the region. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms a bit more isolated with southwestward extent. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs will support the potential for severe storms. However, deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal, which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells (which would then result in more storm interactions and interference). This may cut into the severe potential, stay tuned.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through the weekend , as another longwave trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid- America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features continues to remain unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Scattered strong to marginally severe convection will remain possible across south central and southeast Kansas overnight.
Wind fields will remain somewhat disturbed in the wake of the previous convection/MCS, though east to southeast flow should tend to prevail toward morning. Some MVFR cigs look to develop early to mid-morning on Monday across much of the area though should tend to lift to VFR in the afternoon.

KED

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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