Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday October 21, 2021 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 321 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm edt this evening through Friday morning...
Through 7 pm..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt after midnight, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 321 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure continues to slide off the southeast coast and out to sea today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight, then crosses the local waters late Friday. Weak high pressure builds back in from the north for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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location: 37.88, -75.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 211934 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight as high pressure moves farther offshore. This cold front slowly crosses the region Friday. Weak high pressure builds back in from the north for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 255 PM EDT Thursday .

A potent upper low is spinning across the Great Lakes early this afternoon, with a mid/upper ridge axis off the Southeast coast. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the Southeast coast, with low pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front extending to the southwest across the Ohio Valley. Sunny this afternoon with temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and a SW wind of 10- 15 mph.

The cold front slowly approaches from the northwest this evening. An increase in mid and upper level moisture should lead to increasing high clouds this evening, with an increase in lower level moisture overnight. There is only minimal vertical ascent forecast ahead of the cold front, so only slight chance PoPs for light showers are forecast from the SW Piedmont during the overnight hours then extending NE through central VA toward the MD Ern Shore toward morning, mainly focused along a zone of low-level convergence. Mild for late October tonight with lows only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s, with mid 60s for coastal SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 255 PM EDT Thursday .

The cold front will be slow to settle across southern VA and NE NC By Friday afternoon. Deep moisture is limited, however, there is a narrow zone of PW values of 1.25-1.5" across far SE VA/NE NC along with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. PoPs for showers during the morning are 20-30% across the SE half of the area, then 40-60% for far SE VA/NE NC during the afternoon, with a rather sharp gradient to the NW consistent with the dewpoint gradient associated with the front. Models continue to depict some CAPE across far SE VA/NE NC (The 21/12z NAM is a high outlier as is often the case). 700-500mb lapse rates are rather weak, but somewhat steeper from 850- 700mb and 1000-850mb are forecast across far SE VA/NE NC. If a few tstms do develop, shear is decent so an isolated strong to severe tstm can't be ruled out mainly near the Albemarle sound, with portions of NE NC included in a marginal risk area in the Day 2 SPC outlook. Have opted to include a slight chc for tstms mainly across NE NC (with a chc for tstms along the Albemarle sound). The front will be slow to push off the coast during the evening, with 30-40% PoPs for showers lingering over far SE VA/NE NC. Drier air then overspreads the region from the NW overnight with decreasing clouds. The general model consensus is for limited QPF, generally 0.25" or less for most areas where PoPs are 30% or higher, but a few localized higher amounts are possible from tstms. Highs Friday generally range from the low 70s NW to the upper 70s SE under a mostly cloudy/variably cloudy sky. CAA is limited behind the cold front with temperatures trending back toward seasonal averages. with lows Friday night ranging from the upper 40s NW to mid/upper 50s SE.

Weak high pressure builds in from the north Saturday and Sunday. Seasonal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected Saturday under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Mostly clear Saturday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s inland, to the low/mid 50s along the coastlines. The surface high shifts offshore by Sunday and guidance has trended warmer with temperatures. Forecast highs now range from the lower to mid 70s under a mostly sunny sky.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

The medium range continues to feature a lot of model disagreement, especially from Monday night through the mid to late portion of next week. The models have settled a bit Sunday into Monday with respect to the evolution of the next system as strong low pressure lifts E/NE from the central Plains to the lower OH Valley or just south of the lower Great Lakes into Monday. Locally, this will push a warm front through the local area later Sun/Sun night with most of the guidance indicating that the CWA gets placed into the warm sector through most of Monday. There is pretty good agreement that highs on Mon will be warmer (upper 70s/lower 80s) across the southern 1/2 of the CWA, with upper 60s to lower 70s (and more clouds) across the northern tier. Temperatures will be much cooler Tue- Wed with mostly cloudy skies and highs mainly in the 60s (could even stay in the 50s on Tue in some areas). Mainly dry through Mon aftn with some low chc Pops moving in from the W late in advance of a cold front. This is the point where the models then diverge a lot, offering up significantly different solutions through Wednesday. The ECMWF is much slower and very amplified, yielding much higher pops through Tuesday night, while the GFS dries us out by Tuesday afternoon. Going with the NBM/blends at this time given all of the uncertainty. This brings ~30-40% chance PoPs all areas Mon night and Tue, gradually tapering Pops off to slight chc by Wed. There is pretty good agreement that pops will increase again Thursday with another frontal passage.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 145 PM EDT Thursday .

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 18z. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered over the Great Lakes with a cold front trailing to the SW across the Ohio Valley. Sunny this afternoon with a SW wind of 8-12kt occasionally gusting to 15-20kt. High clouds begin to increase this evening, with some mid-level cigs of 8-12kft developing after 08z ahead of the cold front, then 4-6kft after 12z. There is a 20% chance of showers at RIC from 09-15z, then a 20-30% chance of showers at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG 12-18z Friday. PoPs increase to 40-60% across SE VA/NE NC Friday afternoon, with a few tstms possible (mainly at ECG). A SW wind of 5-10kt will shift to WSW later Friday morning, and then to NW as the cold front slowly crosses the area Friday afternoon.

There will be a lingering chance of showers across far SE VA/NE NC Friday evening, then drier air overspreads the area overnight with decreasing clouds. Mainly dry and VFR Saturday and Sunday as high pressure spreads across the area. A cold front approaches from the north Monday, and this will bring clouds a chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday.

MARINE. As of 305 PM EDT Thursday .

This afternoon, sfc high pressure was centered just off the SE coast while an area of low pressure was centered between Lake Huron and SE Ontario with a trailing cold front pushing through the OH valley. Winds were S/SSW 10-20 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. Seas for the northern coastal waters are expected to build to 2-4 ft late this afternoon. Seas then build to 4-5 ft for the northern coastal waters, and 3-4 ft for the southern coastal waters tonight.

Sfc high pressure will continue to slide out to sea this afternoon, as the cold front approaches from the WNW. SSW/S winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening through tonight in advance of the front. SCAs remain in effect for all the waters except the Rappahannock River, York River, and the Upper James River from late this aftn/early this evening into Fri morning (7 or 10 AM). SCAs for the lower James and all of the Ches Bay have been started early due to gusts to 20 kt.

By later Fri morning, expect winds to have dropped below SCA criteria (generally 10-15 kt). The cold front drops SE over the local waters Fri with winds becoming NNW/N 5-15 kt. The next potential for SCA conditions will be Sun night with SW winds 15-20 kt. A more prolonged threat of SCA conditions appears likely Tues into Wed with CAA behind a cold front from an area of low pressure deepening as it moves E out to sea (for winds and/or seas). An unsettled pattern continues through the week with a potentially more dynamic system approaching the area late week. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding timing at this time.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ/LKB LONG TERM . AJZ/AM/LKB AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . RMM/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi39 min 67°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 21 mi47 min SSW 9.9G13 72°F 67°F1014.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 36 mi47 min S 11G13 1015.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi47 min S 16G18
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 38 mi47 min SW 18G21 69°F 68°F1015.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi35 min SSW 12G16 72°F 69°F1014.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 46 mi35 min SSW 7.8G9.7 71°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA4 mi71 minS 15 G 2210.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1014.3 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA21 mi70 minSW 610.00 miFair76°F50°F40%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW4W3W3NW3N400NW4NW3NW4W4NW3NW3----NW5NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wishart Point, Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Wishart Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:36 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Island, USCG Station, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:32 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:07 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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