Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Church, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:51PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:07 AM EDT (04:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 1:10PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt Tuesday...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 12 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 12 seconds.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 13 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1002 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains south of the local waters through tonight. A cold front crosses the local waters Tuesday evening and night. High pressure returns Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Church, VA
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location: 37.98, -75.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 272320 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 720 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide farther off the coast tonight. A cold front will cross the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms. High pressure returns for Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM EDT Monday .

Mstly clr as high pressure dominates. Not as cool as recent nites due to a lght SW wind. Lows upr 50s nw to mid 60s se.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Monday .

The sfc high becomes suppressed to the SE of the local area on Tue, with continued SW winds. A weak surface trough develops across the region on Tue in response to an upper trough digging across the NE. Decent sfc heating and cooling aloft associated with the upper trough, will serve to steepen both low and mid level lapse rates by the aftn hours resulting in modest instability, when combined with sfc dew points increasing into the lower to mid 60s. Moderate WNW flow aloft and SW sfc flow will result in 25-30 kt of deep layer shear Tue aftn. Favorable overlap of instability and shear will support the potential for a few strong to severe storms along and ahead of the cold front late Tue aftn into Tue evening. SPC has included the nrn half of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Though any severe threat will rapidly wane with loss of heating in the evening, additional sctd showers will remain possible before midnight. Highest PoPs will be across NE portions of the region in closer proximity to the better upper level forcing. Rather warm ahead of the front on Tue, with high temps in the mid 80s over most of the area, along with moderate humidity. Overnight lows Tue night fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s in the post frontal airmass.

High pressure will build down into the area from the north for Wed through Thu. More pleasant weather expected, with high temps ranging through the 70s both days. Lows Wed night will range through the 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Monday .

Going closer to the 12Z ECMWF solution for the extended period. Most of the extended period will remain dry, as sfc high pressure builds down over the region, then slides out to sea. Low pressure over the OH Valley and a frontal boundary to our north, could provide a chance for showers Mon aftn/night.

Lows will range from the upper 40s to the upper 50s Thu night and Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sun night. Highs will range through the 70s to near 80 through the period.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 715 PM EDT Monday .

SKC tonite as high pressure dominates. A cold front apprchs from the NW late Tues. Latest high res data shows sct convection dvlpng along this bndry aftr 21Z. RIC/SBY could see this activity prior to 00Z, but chcs are to low to include in the fcst attm. Did show BKN CU though at both sites by late aftrn. SW winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK . High pressure builds back into the region Wed through Fri.

MARINE. As of 410 PM EDT Monday .

Surface high pressure remains centered south of the local waters through tonight. A cold front approaches from the NW tonight through Tuesday with showers and storms possible Tuesday afternoon into the evening over the local waters ahead of the front. Winds this afternoon are SW/S 10-15 kt (15-20 kt over the northern Ches Bay and northern coastal waters). Winds will increase this evening into tonight to 15-20 kt over most of the waters with 10-15 kt over the rivers and Currituck Sound. Have started SCAs for the upper bay and have issued a SCA for the Lower James from 1 AM to 7 AM. SCAs remain in effect for the middle and lower bay from 10 PM until 7 AM. There may be a period tonight where the coastal waters reach sustained winds of 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, however, do not think gusts will be frequent enough to justify SCAs at this time. Similarly, some of the wave models attempt to bring 5 ft seas into the northern coastal waters, but have been running too high in the near term. Therefore, have capped seas at 4 ft tonight. Winds subside to 10-15 kt Tues. Waves of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft this afternoon will increase to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft respectively tonight before subsiding back to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft Tues.

The cold front moves over the local waters Tues night with winds shifting to N 15 kt behind it. There is some potential that SCAs may be needed for this N surge given the warm water temps, but confidence is too low at this time. High pressure moves in Wed through the end of the week with rather with sub-SCA conditions expected. Uncertainty remains this weekend regarding the extent of the impact of increased swells from Hurricane Sam which will pass well offshore. SCAs for seas may be needed. A period of increased rip current risk will also be possible this weekend due to the swell.

The rip risk will be low Tues and moderate for the southern beaches on Wed. Surf height will be around 3 ft Tues morning with borderline moderate rip risk in the morning. However, seas subside through the day.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . TMG SHORT TERM . RHR/TMG LONG TERM . TMG AVIATION . MPR MARINE . RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 21 mi42 min 72°F5 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 26 mi50 min SW 5.1 G 8 70°F 74°F1016 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 29 mi56 min SSW 16 G 18 74°F 72°F1014.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 36 mi50 min SW 11 G 12 72°F 72°F1016.1 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi50 min S 16 G 18 1016.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 39 mi38 min SSW 16 G 21 69°F 75°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi38 min SSW 9.7 G 14 71°F 1016.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi56 min SW 12 G 15 69°F 74°F1014.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi56 min S 6 G 9.9 71°F 73°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi74 minSSW 810.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W3W5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S6S10S13SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Shelltown
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:55 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.91.11.41.82.12.22.11.91.61.310.90.91.11.522.42.62.62.52.21.91.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Pocomoke City
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.80.80.811.21.41.51.51.41.210.80.70.70.81.11.31.61.81.81.71.6

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