Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:04 AM

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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1058 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ500 1058 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through Monday will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses later in the workweek. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 290525 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 125 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains anchored off the southeast coast early this week with an upper ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the week. A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Precipitation chances increase late Friday and especially this weekend as another cold front approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

A strong upper level ridge is in place from Florida all the way N to the E Great Lakes with sfc high pressure anchored off the SE US coast. Mostly clear tonight apart from some thin cirrus. Dry and mild overnight with a SW wind averaging around 5 mph inland to around 10 mph at the coast in SE VA and NE NC. Temps as of 120 AM ranged from the mid 60s to around 70F (in urban areas).
Morning lows in the lower 60s for most with upper 50s across rural areas in south central/interior SE VA.

SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Well above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

-Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest chances during the afternoon and evening.

-Despite the storm chances, the threat for severe weather is low on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

A ridge remains over the area through the week with well above normal temps expected. Mon and Tues will likely be the warmest days of the week with highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for many)
both days. Some locations may reach 90F either day (especially on Monday) with NBM 50th percentile and MAV/MET/ECS forecasting widespread 88-90F highs. While these summer-like temps will certainly be well above the normal highs of mid 70s (lower 70s at SBY) this time of year, the record highs are in the lower 90s at most climate sites. However, SBY may approach (or exceed) record highs either/both days (see climate section below for more information). Apart from the heat, expect dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days with dry weather on Mon, so heat indices will be similar to (or slightly below) the actual air temperatures.

A weak southern stream shortwave tracks over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak cold front is progged to slowly cross part of the area Tuesday night but may linger over central/srn portions of the area on Wednesday (although this is somewhat uncertain as the guidance is split with respect to how far south the cold front makes it). Nevertheless, isolated to widely scattered tstms will develop across the mountains of VA Tuesday aftn and potentially move into the Piedmont by mid to late evening before gradually weakening as they try to push eastward overnight with the loss of daytime heating. If convection can make it to the Piedmont by evening, isolated gusts to 45 mph are possible in the strongest storms. Will keep PoPs no higher than 30% NW with 15-20% PoPs farther SE (and no chance of tstms in SE VA/NE NC through Tue night). With the front potentially lingering across the area on Wed (in addition to the shortwave tracking near or just south of us), will keep 30-40% PoPs for scattered showers/tstms (highest S of I-64). Otherwise, it will be a bit cooler (especially near the coast) with the flow becoming onshore behind the front as weak high pressure begins to settle across New England. Forecast highs Wed are in the lower-mid 80s inland with mid-upper 70s near the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-Above normal temperatures continue through the week.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible Friday.

-Shower/storm chances increase Saturday ahead of a cold front.

Aloft, a ridge builds across the East Coast from late this week with above normal temps expected. At the sfc, high pressure slides off the New England coast Wed night into Thu, with onshore flow expected across the area. Any convection should quickly dissipate Wednesday evening, with mainly dry wx expected from Wed night through most of Fri. Temps on Thu are expected to be slightly cooler than they will be on Wed, with the coolest temps along the coast with the continued onshore flow. Forecast highs Thu are in the lower 80s inland with upper 60s-70s near the bay/Atlantic coast. Thu will likely remain dry.

High pressure moves farther offshore from Friday through the weekend while the ridge aloft slowly breaks down. Low pressure tracking well to our NW will drag a cold front toward the area this weekend, which will result in increased chances for showers/tstms. A prefrontal trough may spark some showers/storms Fri aftn/evening with 15-30% PoPs. At this time, it looks like the best chance of storms is on Saturday with lingering precip chances on Sunday as the front may stall near/over the area. Temps remain above normal through the weekend (but not as warm as they will be tomorrow/Tue).

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period with mainly clear skies outside of some cirrus overnight and a few fair weather CU this afternoon. Clouds clear again Mon evening with some cirrus moving back in from the W late Mon night. SW winds will generally average 5-10 kt tonight (slightly higher near the coast). Winds increase to ~10 kt later this morning with a few 15-20 kt gusts expected across SE terminals from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Monday night through at least Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance of tstms at RIC/SBY Tuesday evening, with a higher (~30%) chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers and tstms on Wednesday at all of the terminals. Very brief flight restrictions are likely in any tstm. Dry Thu-Fri.

MARINE
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period.

Late this aftn, high pressure was centered off the coastal Carolinas. Winds were SSW 5-15 kt over the waters. Seas were generally 3-4 ft, and waves in the bay were 1 to 2 ft. Winds will become SW everywhere tonight at 5-15 kt. High pressure will become centered off the SE coast for tonight through Tue.
Winds will average 5-15 kt through the period and will primarily be out of the S or SW. Seas will range from 2-4 ft and waves 1-2 ft. A cold front moves across the waters late Tue night into Wed, with winds shifting to the W and then NNW (but still remaining sub-SCA). Onshore flow is then expected later Wed into Thu night. Seas will increase slightly late Tue into Tue night, due to a little stronger S winds. So, we will have to watch the potential for seas to 5 ft (esply out 20 nm) during this timeframe.

CLIMATE
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

4/29 4/30 RIC 94/1974 93/1974 ORF 92/1974 93/1988 SBY 89/1974 86/2017 ECG 90/1974 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Shelltown
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Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:59 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:27 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shelltown, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Pocomoke City
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Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

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