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FXUS63 KDDC 011926 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe thunderstorms expected eastern half of southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible.

- Slightly cooler with strong north winds Thursday.

- Widespread accumulating rainfall most likely Friday night and Saturday morning.

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Afternoon surface analysis shows a warm front extending from Finney to Pawnee counties and then into central Kansas. Meanwhile, a dryline is starting to develop across far western Kansas from Kearny to Stevens counties and into the Texas Panhandle. The dry line is expected to remain stationary across far western Kansas with the warm front sliding slowly north. Scattered cumulus clouds are found east of the dry line keeping the surface from warming to it's highest potential. The atmosphere above western Kansas is very unstable with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 40+ knots.
As we head into the late afternoon, a few ensemble models show a few storms forming along the dry line and move east. However, the 18Z DDC Raob depicts a large CAP that may prevent storms from forming.
If storms do develop, they will have the potential of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter and winds over 60 mph. Low level SRH will also be high around the warm front creating the possibility of a tornado to form. This evening these storms are expected to move into central Kansas with a continued possibility of the strongest to create large hail and damaging winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms were converging on SW KS at midday. Surface observations showed a pronounced frontal boundary just north of the KS/OK border, that will be retreating northward as a warm front through the afternoon.
Exactly how far this warm front advances northward, and exactly how expansive and unstable the resulting warm sector becomes, will dictate the severity of the expected storms late this afternoon/early evening. Mesoanalysis shows strong instability streaming north from West Texas (rerouted westward around Oklahoma outflow), and a pronounced triple point (warm front/dryline intersection) is expected to set up over the SE DDC CWA at peak heating this afternoon. Strong instability with CAPE > 3000 J/kg and enhanced storm relative helicity is expected in this region, with strong convergence near the triple point helping to overcome convective inhibition. Latest thinking is thunderstorms will initiate in the vicinity of US 283/DDC after 4 pm, then progress eastward through the southeast zones into the evening. Most CAMs are aligned along this scenario, and 12z ARW, which failed to convect previously, now agrees. Any discrete supercells in the expected environment near and southeast of DDC will be capable of 2-3" diameter hail and tornadoes. Storms that parallel the stalled boundary will need to be watched carefully for locally enhanced tornado potential.
Per SPC coordination, Clark/Comanche/Kiowa counties are some areas at most risk this afternoon and evening. Shortwave timing appears favorably timed with a high octane warm sector, the only question is exactly where the warm sector sets up at max heating. With questions regarding coverage, kept pops conservative in the chance category for the eastern zones, but also included severe wording in the various products.

Strong cold front associated with the passing shortwave is expected to surge southward after midnight, with north winds gusting over 30 mph. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop in the convergence along this advancing boundary, preferring the eastern zones again. Consensus of short term models suggests low stratus will expand in the post frontal environment, persisting through Thursday morning.

North winds will be strong for much of Thursday, gusting 30-40 mph, ushering in noticeably cooler air. Models show a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb Thursday. With increasing early May sunshine, temperatures will have no problem warming into the lower to mid 70s. Winds will veer NEly and diminish quickly Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Not much time to consider the long term, and accepted the NBM. A pleasant spring Friday is expected, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s, partial sunshine, and increasing southeast winds ahead of the next shortwave. 12z model guidance is optimistic with the associated cold front passage producing rain in SW KS Friday night/early Saturday. Indeed, NBM pops peak in the likely category after midnight Saturday morning. These pops were accepted, with 12z GEFS probability of QPF > 0.10 inch exceeding 80% for at least the NE 1/2 of the DDC CWA After one of the driest Aprils in history, and as short term drought continues to intensify, we are cautiously optimistic that at least some of us will get a desperately needed rainfall Friday night. WPC QPF guidance suggests 0.50-1.0 inch of rain is possible. Marginal 5% severe wind/hail probability is noted from SPC, but with nocturnal timing instability should be limited.

Another minor cooldown behind this cold front, with afternoon temperatures reduced to within a few degrees of 70. Saturday will be pleasant with a northeast breeze.

12z models continue to show a strong closed cyclone crossing the Great Basin on Sunday, and ejecting onto the central plains Monday. Pretrough warm air advection may support some limited rain opportunity Sunday. Long range models and pattern recognition suggest another synoptically evident severe weather episode for the plains Monday afternoon and evening, with the initiating dryline most likely in the DDC CWA at peak heating Monday. We will need to monitor the central and especially eastern zones (central Kansas) for potentially a high end severe risk Monday. Welcome to May!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Widespread MVFR stratus at 15z is expected to improve to VFR over the next few hours, as a warm front makes progress to near US Highway 50 by 21z. Elevated winds will gust to near 25 kts through this time with an easterly component. After 21z, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely in the vicinity of DDC, between 21-00z. With low confidence of impacts directly at the airport, only carried VCTS/CB for now.
Probability of convection at the other airports is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs. A cold front is expected to bring a north wind shift 06-09z Thu, with strong north winds gusting to near 30 kts. Consensus of short term models shows post frontal MVFR stratus behind the cold frontal passage through 12z Thu. IFR stratus is most likely at HYS; in fact, IFR to MVFR stratus is expected to hold at HYS through most if not all of this TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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