Dames Quarter, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dames Quarter, MD

May 8, 2024 4:04 AM EDT (08:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM
Moonrise 5:01 AM   Moonset 8:08 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 136 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Overnight - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.

Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.

Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 136 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dames Quarter, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 080800 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Marginal SVR risk today for most of the region (slight risk SW zones)

- Hot today with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc low pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with high pressure well off the SE coast, and a lee trough over the local area. Aloft, there are two separate areas of low pressure: one across the Dakotas/nrn rockies, and another near the sfc low over northern Michigan.
There is a weak ridge aloft locally, but that will be flattening out later today as the upper trough over Michigan translates E to upstate NY and New England by this evening.

It remains mild and dry early this morning with temperatures mostly in the 60s. Partly cloudy, except for the MD eastern shore where some low clouds and fog remain in place through the next few hrs. There is a large scale area of showers/tstms over thr OH Valley that m,may spread a shower to the far twds sunrise but for the most part this will only lead to some additional high clouds. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe for most of the CWA today, with a Slight across the SW zones (from about Farmville to Bertie Co. NC). Shear will be increasing today as the H5 gradient tightens in response to the trough moving from MI to New England. The 0-6km shear this aftn/evening will increase to ~40 kt, and ML CAPE will be 1000-2000 J/Kg (highest over the south). As such, any storms that do develop will have the potential to become severe w/ wind as the primary threat (though mid level lapse rates are modestly steeper than yesterday so some large hail will also be possible). Probably the main reason that most of the CWA is only in a Marginal is due to the lack of a trigger for convection other than a weak lee trough. PoPs this aftn will mostly hold off until late aftn/early evening and will be highest across the south (30-40%), and lowest over the NE (~20%). It will be hot with highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. The bulk of guidance suggests that the best chc for storms will actually be this evening as a band of slightly steeper mid level lapse rates are progged to push through. PoPs diminish for awhile late in the evening/early thu morning, but then most of the CAMs depict an MCS potentially moving in from the W between 06-12Z Thu morning. Will show PoPs ramping up to 40-50% late. Warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

While somewhat uncertain given the potential MCS (or remnants)
passing through the region Thursday morning, SPC maintains a SLight Risk for Severe across the entire FA. This as the mid level wind field increase further (H5-H7 flow to >50kt), along with the approaching upper trough leading to height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent. The timing will be tricky and have enough support for high chc to low-end likely PoPs Thursday morning (this could be one of the relatively rare cases where we see decent tstm activity during the morning hrs).
The degree to which this AM shower/storm activity lingers into the late morning/midday hrs Thursday could have impacts on the aftn instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe)
and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear or broken line feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low- level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat.
With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the upper 70s/lower 80s N to the mid/upper 80s SE. PoPs diminish from W to E Thursday evening, then dry overnight.
Turning cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s.

Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across VA and the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S). PoPs are highest over the SE (~50%) and lowest over the far W. Drying out Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend. The 12z deterministic GFS continues to phase the upper trough with srn stream energy Fri night (this is because it is slower and more amplified with the trough). This leads to sfc low pressure formation along the baroclinic zone just offshore of the Carolinas. Such a scenario would push widespread stratiform rainfall N towards the FA Fri evening and overnight. The 12z ECMWF suppresses this feature further S as it is depicts a more neutral trough tilt. At this time, will keep the highest PoPs across the SE assuming the sfc low passes well to our S. Beyond this, the weekend weather pattern will feature yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid- Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It looks mainly dry from late Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s), potentially warming further into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR/LIFR on the eastern shore as an area of marine fog and low stratus has spread inland, with VFR conditions elsewhere under BKN mid/high clouds. Winds are mostly light/variable. Flight restrictions across the eastern shore should improve through 12Z (lingering the longest at the Atlantic coast), otherwise partly sunny and mainly dry with WSW winds through the rest of the morning into the mid/late aftn period. Widely scattered mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop, with enough of a chc between ~21Z today and 03Z/Thu to include VCTS(lower chance at SBY so did not include it there). IFR VSBYs will be possible in any tstms, along with strong gusty winds.

Outlook...Active pattern on Thu with at least a chc for showers/storm all day (even in the morning). Some strong storms will be possible. Drying out from W to E Thu evening, then VFR Fri, but there will be a chc for showers/isolated tstms redeveloping Fri aftn into Fri evening. Mainly dry Sat, but another chc for showers Sat night into Sunday.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Surface high pressure remains off the Southeast coast with multiple areas of low pressure over the Plains and another low centered near Michigan. Flow aloft is largely from the SW between a closed low over the northern Plains and ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are S at 5-10 kt early this morning with waves around 1 foot and seas 2-3 ft.

Satellite and surface/buoy observations continue to show areas of fog over the northern coastal waters where a Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues until 7am. SW winds will generally stay in the 5- 10 kt range today ahead of weak lee troughing over inland areas.
Guidance is mixed with respect to the potential and coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the waters this afternoon/evening.
However, the environment will support strong storms if they are able to form and locally enhanced winds/waves/seas are likely in and near any convection that is able to materialize. Sub-SCA flow continues Thursday and with somewhat greater potential for strong storms (highly dependent on how convection evolves upstream). Flow becomes westerly on Friday as the surface front crosses the region. 00z guidance has come into better agreement showing a period of cold advection/stronger NW winds Friday night into early Saturday. This period may require SCA headlines in subsequent forecasts. The NNW surge looks to be short-lived with SE flow reestablishing for the second half of Saturday. Another front potentially moves through the region on Sunday with winds becoming NW behind the boundary, though currently forecast to stay below SCA thresholds. Waves will generally maintain 1-2 ft through the period but could increase to 2- 3 ft Friday night/early Saturday. Near-shore seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft more prevalent out near 20 NM.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

All coastal flood advisories have been cancelled. Additional nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible with the high tide cycle late tonight and further headlines will be issued later this morning.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 9 mi46 min SSE 9.9G11 69°F 72°F29.71
44042 - Potomac, MD 26 mi40 min SSE 7.8G7.8 64°F 65°F0 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 28 mi46 min S 5.1G6 67°F29.71
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 31 mi46 min E 9.9G11 65°F 29.71
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi46 min ESE 5.1G6 66°F 65°F29.69
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 34 mi46 min SSW 8G8.9 69°F 69°F29.70
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 35 mi46 min SSE 4.1G5.1
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi40 min S 16G18 63°F 64°F1 ft
44089 42 mi38 min 61°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 42 mi46 min 0G1 65°F 72°F29.72
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 43 mi46 min S 4.1G6 59°F 59°F29.68
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 46 mi46 min SSE 8G8.9 29.77
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi40 min SSE 3.9G5.8 66°F 66°F0 ft


Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSBY SALISBURYOCEAN CITY WICOMICO RGNL,MD 22 sm63 minS 035 smPartly Cloudy Mist 63°F63°F100%29.73
Link to 5 minute data for KSBY


Wind History from SBY
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Great Shoals Light, Monie Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
   
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Great Shoals Light
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Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:23 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Great Shoals Light, Monie Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
2.5
2
am
3
3
am
3
4
am
2.7
5
am
2.1
6
am
1.4
7
am
0.6
8
am
0
9
am
-0.3
10
am
-0.2
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
2.2
3
pm
2.4
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
1.2
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
0
9
pm
-0.2
10
pm
-0.1
11
pm
0.3


Tide / Current for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
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Wed -- 12:42 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:24 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current, knots
12
am
1
1
am
1.1
2
am
0.9
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.1
5
am
-0.4
6
am
-0.8
7
am
-1.1
8
am
-1.1
9
am
-0.9
10
am
-0.4
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
-0
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
-0.9
7
pm
-1.1
8
pm
-1.1
9
pm
-0.8
10
pm
-0.2
11
pm
0.3


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