Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rock Point, MD
May 20, 2024 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:40 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 259 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Overnight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 259 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 200538 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight.
Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY.
However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn.
Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight.
Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY.
However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn.
Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 12 mi | 42 min | SE 7G | |||||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 16 mi | 42 min | ESE 5.1G | 63°F | 67°F | 30.01 | ||
| NCDV2 | 17 mi | 42 min | ESE 8G | 64°F | 68°F | 29.99 | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 21 mi | 42 min | SSE 2.9G | 62°F | 69°F | 30.02 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 22 mi | 42 min | E 7G | 61°F | 30.02 | |||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 25 mi | 36 min | E 12G | 59°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 28 mi | 36 min | SE 12G | 59°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 37 mi | 42 min | ENE 8.9G | 59°F | 67°F | 30.02 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 38 mi | 90 min | 0 | 59°F | 30.01 | 58°F | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 42 mi | 42 min | E 6G | 67°F | 30.04 | |||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 47 mi | 42 min | E 1.9G | 64°F | 68°F | 30.00 | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 49 mi | 60 min | ESE 8G | 62°F | 30.06 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 17 sm | 17 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 30.02 | |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 17 sm | 67 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 30.02 |
Colton's Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:38 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:38 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Colton's Point, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT 0.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT 0.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.5 |
| 3 am |
| -0.7 |
| 4 am |
| -0.8 |
| 5 am |
| -0.8 |
| 6 am |
| -0.7 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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