Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Colonial Beach, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:56PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:19 PM EDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1036 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late tonight. Canadian high pressure will then build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week, continuing into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colonial Beach, VA
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location: 38.25, -76.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 281451 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will pass through the region today. A Canadian high pressure will build over our region and remain in place through the early parts of this weekend. Another frontal system may impact our region Sunday and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mid-morning update: Current radar imagery shows an area of thunderstorms extending from the WV Panhandle further west into north-central WV. These thunderstorms have developed along the southern periphery of the forcing ascent associated with a shortwave currently progressing across the area. Despite being poorly timed with the diurnal heating cycle, these storms have persisted, as around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE exists across that area. Much of this instability is due to steep mid-level lapse rates present (7.5 degrees C/km 700-500 hPa lapse rate sampled by the 12z IAD sounding). CAMs haven't had a good handle on this complex of storms at all, and have continually attempted to weaken it, which hasn't happened yet. Don't see any reason why it won't persist for at least the next few hours given the elevated instability available to it along the edge of the mid- level lapse rate plume. With nearly unidirectional westerly winds aloft, the storms have exhibited some training motion back into WV, so can't rule out some flooding issues across the WV Panhandle over the next few hours.

Further east, lighter showers and some cloud debris associated with forcing for ascent along the leading edge of the same shortwave are moving across the northern half of the forecast area. This area of showers and clouds casts some uncertainty about how much destabilization will occur across the northern half of the forecast area through the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form again this afternoon as a surface cold front drops southward into our area. Previous discussion follows .

A cold front currently draped over northern Ohio and up through NW PA and western NY is expected to slowly drop southward through our region this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a continued south to southwesterly flow will lead to advection of warm and moist air into our region. Increasing temperatures and humidity through this afternoon will lead to increasing instability with CAPE values expected to peak between 1500 and 2500 j/kg . A westerly flow aloft should limit the overall shower and thunderstorm threat for areas west of the Blue Ridge through the early parts of this afternoon. As the front drops into areas east of the Blue Ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible.

The combination of favorable CAPE around 2000 J/kg along with near 35 knots of SFC-6Km shear along and just east of the boundary will lead to a scattered threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. The 00Z HREF max updraft is highlighting the I-95 corridor for main threat area with the most likely timeframe being from 3pm to 9pm this evening. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Showers and thunderstorms may continue into the early hours of Wednesday morning but the threat for strong storms should taper off slowly as daytime heating ends. Winds will become north to northwesterly behind the frontal passage, allowing cooler and drier air to slowly build into our region late tonight and into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Canadian high pressure will build into our region from the northwest and remain in place through the end of this week. A cooler and drier air mass will build into the region with skies slowly clearing and temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees cooler than Monday and Tuesday. No significant hazards are expected after the cold front moves out of region for the rest of the week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. To finish out the work week, a broad and persistent negative height anomaly lingers off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, mid/upper ridging extends from the Ohio Valley down into the southern to southeastern U.S. Heading into the weekend, the upper trough near New England gets reinforced by additional shortwave energy while slowly drifting toward the northeast. The Mid-Atlantic region generally remains in between the pair of mentioned features which keeps conditions seasonable and dry. For Friday, highs start off in the upper 60s/low 70s with mountain locales staying around the 60 degree mark. As north/northwesterly winds shift to westerly as the surface high drifts southward, a gradual warmup will ensue for Saturday. With the ridge of high pressure in charge, Friday night is forecast to be on the chilly side with widespread 40s. The exception would be inside I-95 where low 50s are more likely.

By Sunday, a system that evolves out of the Four Corners region may combine/interact with a northern stream trough. This would favor some reduction in upstream heights across the Middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. How this pattern pans out will ultimately dictate how quickly precipitation returns to the area. Global ensembles depict a positively-tilted longwave trough back over the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday. A wavy surface frontal zone will arc out ahead of this trough which allows for a slight uptick in shower chances, particularly by Monday. While ensembles show some uncertainty in the temperature forecast, a gradual warmup is anticipated if the area can mainly stay precipitation-free.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A southerly flow this morning will give way to a westerly flow later this morning and remain in place through the early parts of this afternoon. A cold front dropping down from PA may bring showers and thunderstorms to terminals mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor with increasing cloud cover. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible at terminals within storms with gusts upwards of 15 to 20 knots. Behind the front, winds will become northwesterly late this evening skies slowly clearing. A Canadian high pressure will build into the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to clearing skies along with winds become northerly.

Expect VFR conditions at the local terminals on Friday and Saturday underneath mostly sunny skies. Surface winds gradually shift from north/northwesterly to westerly as the high settles to the south on Saturday.

MARINE. A cold front will pass over our marine areas later this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms associated the frontal passage may bring marine gusts above 34 knots which may require Special Marine Warnings. Behind the frontal passage, a channeling northerly flow may lead to Small Craft level winds on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Wednesday.

Winds across the marine waters stay below SCA levels on Friday and Saturday. North/northwesterly winds become more variable by Saturday as the center of the surface ridge crosses through.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ531>533-539>541. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-537-543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . KJP/JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . BRO/JMG MARINE . BRO/JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 6 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 74°F1012.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi50 min NNW 7 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 27 mi50 min E 1 G 1.9 77°F 76°F1012.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi50 min ESE 6 G 7 74°F 1012.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi50 min W 5.1 G 7 76°F 73°F1013 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 36 mi26 min W 3.9 G 3.9 72°F 75°F1 ft
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi26 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 75°F1 ft1013.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi50 min NW 5.1 79°F 1012 hPa61°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 6 78°F 70°F1012 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi50 min SW 6 G 7 72°F 71°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD22 mi25 minSW 510.00 miFair77°F63°F61%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia (2)
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Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.50.40.60.81.11.41.51.51.41.10.70.50.40.40.60.91.21.51.71.71.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     0.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.10.10.10.10-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.40.40.30.20-0.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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