Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM   Moonset 3:10 PM

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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 156 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .
This afternoon - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Tonight - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 156 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters.

FXUS61 KLWX 041357 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped to the south of the forecast area throughout the weekend, bringing on and off showers and possible thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Monday before lifting as a warm front on Tuesday. This will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The cold air damming wedge signature is well in place per recent surface observations. The latest frontal analysis places this boundary down in central North Carolina arcing back into eastern Kentucky. Low-level easterly flow will ensure a cool damp day, accompanied by overcast skies, drizzle, and passing rain showers.
Have opted to further lower today's high temperature forecast which keeps most spots in the mid/upper 50s. Perhaps a 60 degree reading or two are possible across central Virginia and far southern Maryland.

These cooler and more stable conditions combined with plenty of cloud cover will hinder thunderstorm development. Given this assessment, any threat for thunder appeared minimal enough to remove from the forecast today. WPC has the westernmost portions of the forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Isolated instances of flooding are possible, though dry antecedent conditions and 24-hour QPF values less than an inch will lead to most of the rainfall being beneficial.

Heading into the overnight hours, rain showers will persist and become more steady in nature. Moisture aloft will deepen overnight, leading to periods of heavier rain. Nighttime low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to 50s areawide.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned cold front stalled to our south, will lift through the forecast area on Sunday. This will bring noticeably warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s to low 70s throughout the area. Additionally, rain shower and thunderstorm chances will continue both Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorm chances will peak in the afternoon as instability increases with SPC having the forecast area in a general thunder risk each day.

High temperatures will continue to warm on Monday due to southerly flow ushering warm air. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s areawide. Those at highest elevations will stay in the upper 60s throughout the day. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s each night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will remain active through the long term period. A potent shortwave trough and associated area of low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest toward the western Great Lakes on Tuesday, and then across southern Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday. A surge of warm/moist advection will ensue at low levels in response on Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward through the area. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms appear likely on Tuesday in response to the combination of daytime heating and low level warm/moist advection on the synoptic scale. High temperatures on Tuesday should reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Low-level forcing for ascent decreases somewhat on Wednesday as we move into the open warm sector and low-level flow turns westerly.
Thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday afternoon, but the coverage of storms should be considerably lower than Tuesday. In westerly low-level flow, a lee trough may serve as a potential focus for the development of storms. It will be noticeably warmer on Tuesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.

A prominent shortwave will eject eastward from the Plains toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Thursday. An associated area of low pressure will track toward the northern Ohio Valley toward PA and NY by Thursday evening. This system will act to increase large scale forcing for ascent across the area, while also strengthening the wind field through the low-mid levels. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday, some of which may be strong to severe in nature. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Model solutions begin to diverge by Friday, with some models driving a cold front southeastward through the region Thursday night, while others hold off on the frontal passage until Friday night. As a result, a wide range of potential forecast outcomes exist. If we're post cold frontal on Friday, we'd have much cooler temperatures, and dry conditions. However, if the front remains upstream of the area, we'd have another day with warm and humid conditions, as well as additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Onshore flow will bring reduced ceiling heights and plenty of cloud cover throughout the day today. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected throughout the day as a stalled frontal boundary continues rain and drizzle through the overnight. Winds remain out of the east with gusts staying 10-15 knots possible at all terminals except for CHO, where winds will remain lighter.
Tonight, heavier precipitation rates may lead to sub-IFR conditions.

Precipitation and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday with IFR flight conditions expected throughout the morning. Flight conditions possibly improve to MVFR Sunday afternoon, through dense fog and reduced CIGs could bring renewed chances for IFR/sub-IFR conditions. Winds shift to southeasterly on Sunday, blowing less than 10 knots. Unsettled conditions continue as we head into the week as a cold front approaches from the west.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, but temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible in any thunderstorms. Winds will generally be out of the east on Tuesday, before turning out of the south Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the Chesapeake Bay with east winds blowing 10 to 20 knots.
Gusts up to 25 knots are possible. Winds increase for the Upper Potomac and Upper Chesapeake Bay tonight, with SCA conditions expected. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected throughout the weekend as a warm front moves over the waters and a cold front approach from the west. Winds shift to southerly on Sunday and are expected to remain below SCA criteria as we head into the week.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected in easterly flow on Tuesday, and then in southerly flow Tuesday night into Wednesday. SMWs may be possible either day if thunderstorms pass over the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies have continued to rise this morning amidst easterly onshore flow. Current anomalies are running between 1.25 and 1.75 feet. This regime is expected to persist into tonight before winds turn out of the south to southeasterly on Sunday.
Tides are expected to remain elevated through the weekend, with Minor flooding possible in many locations. Moderate flooding may also be possible at Annapolis and Straits Point, where a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for tonight. Water levels may begin to decrease during the day Monday as winds turn southwesterly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ016-017.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ536.

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Leonardtown
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:53 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Leonardtown, Breton Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true

Sat -- 02:57 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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