Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:30PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:59 AM EDT (08:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 2:03AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 435 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. Sporadic gale conditions are also possible this afternoon within gusty showers. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, high pressure returns from Monday through Wednesday. Small craft conditions will likely linger into portions of Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 160814 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 414 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will follow for much of next week before another cold front moves through toward the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of early this morning, strong cold front was located northwest of the area, stretching from western New York southwest across northwest PA, southeast Ohio and central Kentucky. High pressure stretches across the western Atlantic, with another high pressure centered over northern Texas. Aloft, a ridge extends nortward over the western Atlantic towards New England, with a sharp shortwave over the western Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. Another ridge is centered over the southwestern US.

Eastern areas remain relatively clear presently, but clouds are streaming northeastward across our western zones. Scattered showers are further west, mainly over central and western West Virginia into western PA, with the main frontal squall line near the front itself.

For today, expect warm, southerly flow to help bring temps back to near 80 for much of the region, especially east of the Blue Ridge, before the front reaches us. This will help elevate CAPE, not particularly high, but enough to be tapped by the approaching front. This front all by itself packs a punch, with gusts likely to reach 30-40 mph with it, and any stronger cells have a good shot to bring stronger winds with it. Best coincidence of CAPE and shear looks to be over northeastern MD, where SPC has placed a slight risk of severe weather, but marginal risk now exists across the entire region. Best timing will be before noon in the Alleghenies, shortly afternoon along the I-81 corridor, and 2PM towards sunset east of the Blue Ridge. Front and storms likely don't clear the bay until after sunset. Severe weather with the front itself looks most likely, but a burst of wind advisory gusts can't be completely ruled out for an hour or two just behind the front even outside of the squalls.

Temperature drop will also be drastic, with temps likely falling 10-15 degrees within a couple hours, perhaps even in the first hour, after the frontal passage. Rainfall amounts don't look excessive, but totals in excess of a half inch could occur in heavier cells. However, no flood risk is anticipated given dry antecedent conditions and relatively rapid storm motion.

Tonight, high pressure will slowly build eastward to our southwest, with a strong gradient remaining in place. Much lower dew points will result in drying, but also significant cooling, with lows into the 40s in many areas. Isolated upslope showers may occur over the Allegheny Front, but elsewhere, it should stay dry with clearing.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will slowly build into the area from the southwest Sunday through Monday night. The gradient will be most noticeable Sunday, resulting in relatively cool temps, especially when combined with winds gusting 20-30 mph, despite sunshine. Winds will gradually diminish Monday as the gradient relaxes, and temps may even creep up a tad, so Sunday will definitely be the most fall-like day. Lows both nights likely fall into the 40s in many spots, with the coolest locations into the 30s. Patchy frost may occur in the very coldest spots, but no frost/freeze headlines are anticipated. This is rather unusual for so late in the season.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ridging will build over the region through the middle of next week leading to a warming trend. Next upper level trough and asssociated cold front will swing through the area during the second half of next week bringing the next chance of showers to the area Thursday. Cooler and more seasonable weather is expected for next weekend.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mainly VFR presently, but showers and storms with an approaching front likely result in sub-VFR, possibly brief IFR, conditions this afternoon, along with gusty winds perhaps exceeding 40 knots briefly. VFR returns by tonight and lasts thru Monday night, but winds may occasionally gust up to 30 knots at least thru Sunday afternoon, diminishing slowly thereafter.

No sig wx expected Tue through Wed.

MARINE. Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in widespread SCA conditions by midday, with a strong cold front and squal line then possibly bringing special marine warning conditions with gusts over 40 knots possible this afternoon into the early evening. SCA conditions continue thru Sunday and possibly linger in spots thru Monday as much cooler air builds in behind the front.

Winds will be on the downward trend Tue, but may increase again Thu afternoon ahead of next frontal passage. Some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible with next frontal passage Thu.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides remain around 1.2 ft above normal at Annapolis and it appears winds will not shift to the west in time before next high tide at 303 PM. Therefore, have extended CF.Y one more tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory may also become necessary for this afternoon's high tide at DC Waterfront, however, confidence is not high at this time since front would have already cleared the District by the time of next high tide cyle at 554 PM.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ014. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537- 539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-538-542. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ535- 536.

SYNOPSIS . RCM/LFR NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . RCM/LFR MARINE . RCM/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi66 min S 4.1G5.1 67°F 73°F1008.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi66 min S 12G15
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi66 min S 8G9.9 69°F 73°F1009.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi66 min S 14G15 70°F 1009.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi54 min S 14G18 68°F 72°F1 ft1010.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi90 min SW 6 64°F 1009 hPa61°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi66 min SSW 11G13 68°F 72°F1009.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi66 min SSE 4.1G5.1 69°F 71°F1008.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi60 min S 14G16 67°F 72°F1 ft1010.3 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi64 minSSW 59.00 miFair69°F63°F81%1009.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi65 minS 510.00 miFair65°F65°F100%1008.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F89%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W4W4W3S4S5S4S3S5S5S3S9S10SE6S4SE4S6S10SW4SW4S4S5S5
1 day agoW3W3W3NW3N10N9NW11N9NW11N9NW10NW4W5W3W6W7W7W6W6W4W5W6W3W6
2 days agoW30W7W6--W30SE4S6S5S6S6SE5S5SE3W3W4W3W5W3W5W3W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:55 PM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:35 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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