Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stanardsville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:02PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:08 AM EDT (04:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:42PMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will then build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stanardsville, VA
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location: 38.31, -78.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 280130 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through the region from the north on Tuesday evening. Canadian high will build back into the region behind the frontal passage and remain in place through the early part of this weekend. Another system may impact the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

Increasing mid-high level clouds overnight ahead of a cold front dropping south from Pennsylvania. Expecting dry conditions through much of the night with increasing PoPs across the NW after 09Z.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As the high pressure departs the SE shore, warm and moist advection will continue to be introduced early Tuesday morning. A large upper level feature will push down across the area with an initial shortwave trough moving through western MD during the late overnight hours into early morning on Tuesday and move ESE. With this feature, coupled with modest instability parameters with that warm, moist advection coming from southerly flow, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible for the initial round. It does not look as organized as the next feature in the afternoon but still may bring some showers and gusty winds to areas mainly north of I-66. Also worth mentioning, decent midlevel lapse rates along with cooler midlevel temperatures may allow for some smaller hail embedded with any thunderstorms that do form with this line, though it looks isolated in nature.

As the shortwave pulls out by early afternoon, a cold front associated with a deep upper level trough will start to migrate through the area. With peak daytime heating in place, this disturbance may become a bit more organized in nature. MUCAPE values continue to look fairly strong with 2000+ j/kg possible east of I-81 during the afternoon and evening hours. Bulk shear values continue to moderately impress with 30 to 35 knots. Guidance continues to favor the strongest storms along and east of I-95 by the evening hours. Some strong to severe storms are possible east of I-81 but especially along and east of the I-95 corridor. Main threats for these storms will be for damaging winds and large hail. Peak strength looks to be anywhere from 6 to 10 pm before peak heating diminishes. With a lack of strong upper level forcing, coverage looks to remain scattered in nature but will continue to monitor the latest guidance.

After the front passes late Tuesday night into Wednesday, some residual showers could linger across the northern portions of the CWA before morning rush hour on Wednesday. Canadian high pressure starts to build in from the north and allow an extended dry period to commence.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A prolonged stretch of dry weather and below normal temperatures is expected to start the long term period. By Thursday, the longwave pattern across the CONUS will be highly amplified, and as a result, will remain rather stagnant heading into this weekend. An upper low embedded within a longer wave trough will be situated near the Gulf of Maine, while a relatively narrow, but high amplitude ridge will extend from Florida through the Great Lakes and up over Hudson Bay. With those features moving very little, deep layer north to northwesterly flow will reside over the area through at least Saturday as the upper low continues to spin off the New England coast and the ridge remains established to our west. This will lead to several days of dry weather, sunny skies, and slightly below normal temperatures.

Further to the west, a trough initially situated over the Rockies will break down into several pieces during the latter portions of the week, as ridging builds to its north. Depending on how this happens, one or more of these features may interact with the aforementioned upper low as it starts to retrograde slightly toward the west. With many moving pieces involved, this remains a low- predictability forecast. As a result, many different solutions are advertised by the available deterministic and ensemble guidance. Most solutions maintain the dry stretch of weather through Sunday, but some solutions (most notably the 12z GFS) bring rain back into the area.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions expected through tonight ahead of the next disturbance that will cross through the northern terminals by early Tuesday morning. A few showers possible for the initial disturbance passage. The next one will introduce higher chances for isolated categorical restrictions, mainly for the eastern terminals (BWI, MTN, DCA, IAD). Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with showers possible through early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions will follow after the front passes by mid-morning/early afternoon Wednesday.

Quiet conditions are anticipated for Thursday and Friday in the wake of the mid-week cold frontal passage. Expect VFR to rule the period with winds out of the northwest to northerly direction.

MARINE.

Winds are expected to strengthen through the overnight and begin to relax Tue morning.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday that may require a few SMWs over our marine areas. SCA conditions possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a front passing through the area. After that, high pressure returns and winds diminish, leading to sub- SCA criteria the remainder of Wednesday.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Only Havre de Grace may reach minor coastal flooding overnight, but anomalies have dropped slightly in the past two hours and are currently running around 1.7 ft. This is lower than the 2 ft anomaly observed last Saturday night which did not result in any flooding. Will continue to monitor, but trends suggest no advisory will be needed tonight.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>532-539- 540. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . LFR SHORT TERM . ADM LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . LFR/KJP MARINE . LFR/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . LFR


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 83 mi50 min S 6 G 8.9 71°F 71°F1012.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 95 mi98 min SW 5.1 68°F 1013 hPa58°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA12 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair67°F56°F68%1013.9 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA19 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair61°F55°F83%1014.6 hPa
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA24 mi73 minS 510.00 miFair63°F55°F74%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3W3SW33CalmCalmCalmS3S6S5S7S9S7SW7SW8S9S9SW7SW5SW5S5SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoS43CalmW4W3W3Calm3SW333NW46S5W7W55NW3SW3SW3S3W43Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S83S6S9
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SW4S5S3SW4CalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.12.82.41.91.410.80.80.91.422.52.62.62.31.81.30.90.70.70.91.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.72.52.11.71.310.80.70.81.21.82.22.32.321.61.20.80.60.60.81.21.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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