Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:58PM Monday September 27, 2021 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:50PMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon Sep 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight. The high will move offshore Monday before another cold front is poised to cross the waters late Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 270741 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 341 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure overhead will slowly shift off-shore this evening as a front moves through the region from the north on Tuesday. A Canadian high will build back into the region behind the frontal passage and remain in place through the early parts this weekend. Another system may impact the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

High pressure is currently located over the eastern half of the US with the center of the high located over western VA and NW NC this morning. The high has led to mostly clear skies along with light and variable winds early this morning. Light and clear conditions should allow for morning temperatures to drop down into the 50s with some of our higher elevations dropping into the 40s.

Mostly Sunny and dry conditions will continue through this afternoon as the high remains near our region. The high will begin shifting off-shore later this morning leading to an increasing southerly flow leading to advection of warm and moist air into our region. Afternoon temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer then Sunday with highs expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Continue warm air advection through this evening will lead to overnight lows remaining elevated in the upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/.

The high will move off-shore by Tuesday morning leading to the maximizing of a southerly flow. Continued warm air advection will lead to rising moisture and temperatures on Tuesday. Some early morning CAPE around 500 j/kg coupled with a shortwave may lead to a slight chance for showers/ thunderstorms mainly focused over western MD and the eastern panhandle of WV.

The larger threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon when CAPE will be maxed out and the front is forecast to move through the region. The combination of increasing temps and moisture will lead to CAPE values rising above 1000 by Tuesday afternoon with values above 2000 possible. Storm coverage should be scattered at most as there will be a lack of upper level forcing with the frontal passage. The front will likely provide the trigger for showers and thunderstorms to form in an environment that will have favorable CAPE with modest shear values of 25 to 35 knots. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe but I believe the main hazardous wx threat will be over our marine areas due to strong thunderstorms. The main front should drop through our region Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with a 850 front moving through by Wednesday morning. Showers and storms could linger into early Wednesday morning due to the 850 front and an upper level jet moving overhead. Winds will become northerly by Wednesday morning.

A canadian high pressure is forecast to build into our region on Wednesday. A northerly flow will form and lead to a cooler and drier air mass building back over our region with near to below average temperatures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

A cool and dry pattern will be featured to close out the work week. On Thursday, a slow moving upper low is forecast to drift off the New England coast while stout ridging remains in place from the southeastern U.S. up into the Great Lakes. The Mid-Atlantic remains entrenched between these two features with prevailing north to northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface. Gradients are not terribly strong so expected wind gusts should reach the 10 to 15 mph range on Thursday and Friday. Abundant sunshine will accompany this regime with highs topping out in the low to mid 70s across most of the lower elevations. Mountain locales can expect 60s to be more commonplace. Overnight lows should stay in the 40s in most spots, with low 50s inside I-95.

Heading into the weekend, ensemble solutions maintain lower heights over the Canadian Maritimes with some degree of ridging across the southern to southeastern U.S. The biggest question looming ahead is related to the degree of amplification in the northern stream. At this juncture, only the 00Z GFS/GEFS members show troughing to the west of the Mid-Atlantic. Other reliable global solutions depict a healthy level of ridging extending up through most of the Mississippi River Valley. Will maintain low end chances for showers to close out the weekend but predictability is rather low given the ensemble disagreement. Daily temperatures stay seasonable for early October normals.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

High pressure slowly shifting off-shore will lead to winds becoming southerly by early this afternoon with VFR ceilings. Showers and thunderstorms may impact terminals near and north of the DC metro on Tuesday with subVFR restrictions possible within storms. VFR conditions along with northerly winds will build over all terminals behind a frontal passage on Wednesday.

Quiet conditions are anticipated for Thursday and Friday in the wake of the mid-week cold frontal passage. Expect VFR to rule the period with winds out of the northwest to northerly direction.

MARINE.

High pressure will shift off-shore later this evening leading to the formation of a southerly channeling flow. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday that may require a few SMWs over our marine areas. SubSCA conditions are likely on Wednesday as a high pressure builds back over the region.

Post-frontal northerly flow should stay below SCA levels for Thursday and Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

A south-southwesterly flow will increase through tonight which will lead to elevated water levels. While currently forecasting the more sensitive areas (Annapolis and Washington, D.C.) to reach the action stage during the high tide tonight, some ensembles bring these locations to minor flooding. Confidence does remain low due to the flow being west of south.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

SYNOPSIS . JMG NEAR TERM . JMG SHORT TERM . JMG LONG TERM . BRO AVIATION . BRO/JMG MARINE . BRO/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi43 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 76°F1017.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi43 min WNW 6 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi43 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 65°F 76°F1017.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi43 min SSW 8.9 G 12 66°F 1017.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 36 mi31 min Calm 51°F 1017 hPa51°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi43 min WSW 8 G 8.9 63°F 72°F1018.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi43 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 71°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi65 minW 39.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1018.3 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair53°F50°F89%1019.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair54°F54°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

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Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia (2)
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:18 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:42 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.40.611.31.51.61.51.30.90.60.40.30.40.611.41.71.81.71.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.30.40.50.811.11.21.10.90.70.40.30.30.30.50.81.11.31.41.31.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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