Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Salmon Creek, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:32PM Saturday October 16, 2021 1:34 AM PDT (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 2:15AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 833 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft and S around 2 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ500 833 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Winds will remain light to moderate winds prevail through the weekend.a weak northwest prevails. Winds will increase out of the northwest as a cold front arrives late Sunday into early Monday. This front brings with it a chance of light to moderate scattered rain showers over the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salmon Creek, CA
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location: 38.33, -123.05     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 160540 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1040 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. A weak frontal system will cool temperatures Sunday with a slight chance of light precipitation over the Bay Area and potentially even over the Central Coast. Even cooler, more unsettled weather conditions look possible through the latter half of next week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 07:45 PM PDT Friday .

NEAR TERM [Through Early Saturday Morning].

GOES-WEST Visible Imagery picked up on the smoke plume associated with the Estrada Fire west of Gilroy between Morgan Hill and Watsonville earlier this afternoon, with reports of elevated smoke coming in from across the Central Coast and the South Bay. Will continue to monitor the smoke canopy as later HRRR-smoke runs pick up on the signature. The building mid-level ridge over California is largely enhancing the hot and dry air mass in place, with many areas along the coast and bays (e.g. Santa Cruz, San Francisco, Oakland) reaching max temps ranging between the mid-70s to low 80s. Needless to say, those areas in our CWA above 1500 ft and in greater contact with the hot 850mb air mass experienced max temps in the mid 80s F, with some of our highest peaks approaching the 90 degree F mark.Overall, was a hot and dry day across the entire Bay Area, with RH values struggling to get into the 20-30 percent range and many inland locations, particularly those above 1500 ft, hanging in the teens. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are in store for inland areas tonight, particularly high-terrain areas. Thankfully, winds are progged to remain light tonight.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Early Monday Morning].

Given the shortening days, diurnal cooling will help to drop many of our coastal sites back down into the low to mid 50s F. Inland valleys in the North Bay and down in Southern Monterey County will drop into the 40s F owing to greater diurnal cooling and valley cold-air pooling. As for the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, Santa Cruz Mountains, and essentially all elevated areas of the CWA over 1500 ft, the 850mb air mass will continue to heavily regulate the overnight environment. What this means for these areas is two fold: 1) warm overnight temps in the 60s F and 2, little to no overnight humidity recoveries. Thankfully, this air mass does not carry with it sufficient offshore flow to warrant extreme fire concerns, but given the latest fire and the critically dry fuels in our region, will be monitoring the environment closely. For the latest on active wildfires, be sure to contact your local authorities and CALFIRE when possible.

The hot and dry 850mb air mass associated with the mid-level ridge is on track to remain over the CWA through tomorrow afternoon. Given the lack of onshore flow, have progged a hot day for much of the coast and bays with max temps expected to range between the mid 70s to low 80s F. Inland areas are also progged to reach max temps that will be 3-5 degrees hotter than today's. A different environment is in store for the CWA come Sunday as the mid-level ridge exits towards the Great Basin, leaving behind a deep 543-545mb mid-level trough that will quickly encompass the West Coast. The latest GFS and EC deterministic solutions take the axis of this system into Northern California by Sunday afternoon, effectively returning onshore flow to the entire coastline between Point Mendocino to Point Conception and dramatically cooling off our coasts and bays. As a result, are progging max temps in the 60s for SF, Oakland, and Santa Cruz, while inland areas (e.g. Concord, Livermore, Napa) will struggle to reach the low 70s F. This shift in the pattern will effectively cut off the influence of the warm, dry 850mb air mass and replace it with return-flow from the PAC. The added synoptic-scale cold FROPA along the NorCal coastline will also offer us a chance for something we are in desperate need of: precipitation. Needless to say, the primary forcing associated with the divergent quadrant of the trough looks to remain well to the north of the Bay Area (e.g. Eureka, Southern Oregon) but some of the deterministic solutions have continued to track rain showers into portions of the North Bay. The latest forecast package hosts the most likely times for some showers to develop between Sunday morning across the North Bay to areas south of the Golden Gate by the afternoon. The catch with these chances is that synoptic-scale forcing will struggle to maintain these shower The greatest potential for measurable rainfall will be over the North Bay where around 0.10" will be possible. It should be noted that a blend of our short-range solutions suggests that upwards of 0.25" will be possible along the coastal ranges, with the caveat that early-morning drizzle adds to some of the finalized totals. The same blend of short- range solutions, in concert with the latest EC and GFS runs, signal that some of these showers may be influenced enough by localized orographic lift to survive down to Monterey Bay. This reach in the showers would result in some areas along the coast south of Santa Cruz to total a few hundredths of an inch, while the Santa Lucias could pick up by 0.10" by late Sunday night and into early Monday morning. Onshore winds are then progged to increase ahead of and in wake of the frontal boundary with breezy to gusty conditions expected near the coast, ridges, and peaks.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Next Sunday].

Upper-level wave energy is expected to train the West Coast through much of the upcoming week, with the latest Day 3-7 multi- model ensemble suggesting another mid-level trough spinning into the Northern California by Tuesday, keeping the entire region cool and introducing yet another FROPA to the Bay Area Tuesday night and into Wednesday. It should be noted that the latest EC and GEFS members are signaling a slightly more favorable environment for showers during that time-frame for Northern California. Nonetheless, our CWA looks to be at the tail-end of this synoptically-favorable environment, so still have large uncertainties as to what our potential rain totals may be from the mid-week disturbance. It should be noted that La Nina conditions have now officially redeveloped in the PAC, and so there is much uncertainty as to rain potential for the next couple of months. For now, the overall picture for next week is one with the potential for unsettled weather and cooler temps through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION. as of 10:45 PM PDT Friday . For the 06z TAFs. Widespread VFR with light winds under high pressure tonight and into tomorrow with an afternoon seabreeze. High clouds begin to filter into the region later Saturday. Next cold front is forecast to arrive Sunday night into Monday morning with increasing onshore flow, return of cigs, and possibility of precipitation.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR, light winds overnight, afternoon seabreeze to 10 kt Saturday.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . VFR, light winds overnight, afternoon seabreeze Saturday 8 to 10 kt on Saturday.

MARINE. as of 08:33 PM PDT Friday . Winds will remain light to moderate winds prevail through the weekend.A weak northwest prevails. Winds will increase out of the northwest as a cold front arrives late Sunday into early Monday. This front brings with it a chance of light to moderate scattered rain showers over the waters.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. None.

PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDXC1 1 mi89 min 54°F
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 23 mi47 min 55°F1018.5 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 35 mi39 min 54°F8 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 41 mi35 min NNW 5.8G7.8 1018.6 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 44 mi65 min 56°F 56°F5 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 44 mi47 min 0G1 64°F 61°F1018.7 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 44 mi114 min NW 2.9 64°F 1018 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 46 mi47 min 0G1 60°F 1018.3 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 47 mi47 min N 9.9G13 64°F 1018.9 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 48 mi47 min SSE 1.9G4.1 63°F 64°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA18 mi42 minNW 310.00 miFair50°F36°F59%1018.2 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA24 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair50°F37°F62%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3000000NW3NW3N3030S635SW6S4SE4S40NW40NW3
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2 days ago000000003033SE6SE10SE8S8SE8SE6W4NW3N3N3NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Bodega Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:47 AM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:15 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM PDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Point Reyes, California Current
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Point Reyes
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:16 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:20 AM PDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:19 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:20 PM PDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:30 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM PDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:04 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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