Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Birdseye, IN

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:53PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:56 AM EST (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, IN
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location: 38.37, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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FXUS63 KLMK 160813 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 313 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Short Term. (Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

. Significant Wintry Accumulations For Portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Today .

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a strong, occluded upper level low (ULL) over Mississippi. Plentiful moisture has been advected northward ahead of this ULL and regional radars reveal widespread precipitation across much of the Tennessee Valley. Precipitation has pushed north of the Tennessee border and is reaching the ground in parts of southern Kentucky. mPING and social media reports from these locations have indicated p-types to vary between sleet and snow, and given that model soundings show a subtle warm nose near 925mb, this makes sense.

Models indicate that as the precipitation spreads northeastward through the day, it will encounter a subtle warm nose that will make for some messy p-types initially. Would not be surprised to see areas bounce back and forth between snow and ice pellets, and perhaps some occasional freezing rain or rain. In regard to freezing rain, think overall accumulations will be limited as surface temperatures will be right around the freezing mark, and without a steady supply of sub-freezing air filtering in from the east/northeast, surface temps should rise to just above freezing (Remember, freezing rain is a self-limited process as latent heat is released from the droplet freezing process).

As we head into the early afternoon hours, we'll see winds in the low to mid levels shift from northeasterly to northwesterly as the ULL currently over Mississippi lifts northeastward. This will help advect in cooler air and erode the warm nose to where the entire column goes below freezing. Around this same time, a deformation axis with a strong mid-level frontogenetical component will result in banded precipitation structures capable of moderate to heavy snowfall. Models still waver on where this axis of moderate to heavy snowfall will set up, but general consensus is somewhere near and/or east of a line going from Monroe County (KY) points NNE toward Fayette County (KY). 16.00z SPC HREF snowfall means and >1"/hour probabilities generally favor the heaviest snowfall east of our CWA into JKL's CWA, though that doesn't mean we still won't see period of heavy (>1"/hour) snowfall in our region. In fact, would not be surprised to see a swath of +6" across our far east counties with the way things are coming together. Timing for the heaviest snowfall across our eastern counties will likely be in the 16.19z - 17.00z time range.

Snowfall will gradually come to an end by midnight as the ULL lifts off to the northeast. Think the current placement of the warnings and advisories generally look good, so no plans to change those. Do want to mention that the odds of Simpson/Allen/Barren counties seeing warning level criteria snowfall/ice are low, but at this point in time don't want to "downgrade" in the event models do shift back westward with things and they end up getting more snow/ice than anticipated. In the event of a westward shift, some of the counties currently in advisories would also likely see +4" of snow . but confidence is just not high enough to introduce any new winter storm warnings. There will likely be a sharp cut-off in snowfall amounts when all is said and done, with western ends of some counties hardly having anything, while the eastern ends could have several inches.

Additional light snowfall will be possible toward the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning as a fast moving system swings into the region. QPF with this system looks to be very meager, but higher SLR's will allow for a light dusting to half inch of snowfall across a good portion of southern Indiana and central Kentucky by dawn tomorrow.

Long Term. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Synopsis . As the potent winter system departs through the Northeast, another midlevel shortwave trough will quickly trail across the Ohio Valley on Monday morning. Overall, the synoptic pattern seems to be locked in on a West Coast Rex blocking and Central/Eastern US longwave trough, with shortwave training along the polar and subtropical jets, respectively.

Monday . The best combination of lifting, instability, and moisture for precipitation to occur seems to last for a couple of hours right before sunrise. Forecast soundings indicate below freezing temperatures across the tropospheric column, which supports snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect light accumulations with this event due to the progressive nature of the showers and the limited depth of the DGZ , less than 100 mb per the latest SREF run. By mid morning, intrusion of dry air will start decreasing PoPs from west to east. In addition, the combination of blustery northwesterly winds and cold temperatures will result in wind chill readings around mid 20s in the afternoon.

Tuesday . Weak shortwave ridge and surface high pressure moving along the Gulf States will keep conditions dry. Although morning temperatures will be in the low 20s, a southerly shift in the wind will warm up the mercury in the afternoon to the mid 40s.

Wednesday . A clipper system moves along the US northern tier pushing a cold front towards the Ohio Valley. Low-level temperatures will be above freezing to support liquid precipitation at the beginning of the event. However, surface cyclogenesis in the South may support an anafrontal component of the passing cold front. This could result in a phase change of the liquid precipitation to a wintry mix behind the surface boundary.

Thursday-Sunday . There is very low predictability of the main pattern for next weekend since global deterministic solutions do not agree in the large scale scenario. Most remarkable outlier is the 16\00Z GFS as it develops several vorticity max in the Southwest instead of amplifying the main East Coast longwave pattern. CMC and ECMWF develop a winter storm in the Southeast for the Saturday- Sunday time frame. There is still time for the models to converge in a clear output. In the mean time, the forecast reflects below- average temperatures and low PoPs.

Aviation. (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1225 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

VFR conditions are present across much of the region early this morning, but cigs/vis will gradually decrease across portions of southern and eastern Kentucky as a winter storm system lifts northeast. Wintry precipitation will overspread areas generally along and east of the I-65 corridor today, with it having the most impact at KLEX. There remains some uncertainty to the exact precipitation type for the first part of the day when the wintry precipitation begins, but everything should gradually transition to snow by the mid to late afternoon hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning to 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ034>040-045>047-053- 054-062>065.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for KYZ055>057-066-067-074-076>078.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KYZ070- 071.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KYZ072-073- 075-081-082.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Monday for KYZ041>043-048-049.



Short Term . DM Long Term . ALL Aviation . DM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN15 mi60 minNNE 810.00 miFair25°F19°F78%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNB

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrE4NE9E7E10E11E12
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1 day agoNW4NW30N4N7NE5NE6E4SE4E53NE4E3NE5NE5NE3NE5NE4NE5NE3E6E6E8E10
2 days agoS4S4SW5W4SW4SW4W6W9NW8W7NW6NW9NW8NW5NW4NW5NW5NW6N5N4NW5N5N5N3

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