Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:25PM Saturday October 16, 2021 5:26 AM EDT (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 435 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through the region this afternoon. Sporadic gale conditions are also possible this afternoon within gusty showers. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, high pressure returns from Monday through Wednesday. Small craft conditions will likely linger into portions of Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160807 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds into the area Sunday through the middle of next week bringing more seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 335 AM EDT Saturday .

High pressure is now centered offshore of the region early this morning, with deepening ~1002mb low pressure near Lake Ontario. A sharp cold front extends SSW into ern portions of KY/TN and the Deep South. A rather deep trough aloft extends from the ern Canadian Prairies south to the Mississippi River Valley, and this trough is steadily progressing eastward. A potent shortwave embedded in the trough is quickly tracking NE toward the ern Great Lakes. National radar mosaic shows a broken line of showers along the front, with much of the pcpn behind it (from central TN to MI) Locally, skies are still clear with very little fog compared to the past few mornings thanks to a 5-10mph south wind. Temperatures are in the upper 50s-mid 60s in most areas.

Still not a whole lot of change to the forecast for this aftn through tonight. The cold front is progged to reach the wrn CWA border by early aftn, cross the I-95 corridor between 3-5 PM, and clear the entire CWA by 00z/8 PM this evening. This happens as the parent low continues to deepen while tracking NNE through Quebec and the upper trough axis approaches from the W, but the above mentioned shortwave (and best mid/upper level dynamics) are still expected to miss us well to the north. Increasing low-level S-SSW flow (and mainly sunny skies) will allow it to warm quickly with forecast highs ranging from the upper 70s-80F W to the mid 80s SE. With nearly all of the pcpn falling along and behind the front, will have a dry fcst for all zones through 16z/noon. A broken line of low- topped convection (mainly showers) will develop along the front by mid afternoon as it approaches the I-95 corridor with the increase in daytime heating (and mid-upper 60s dew points). However, the probability of thunder is very low (but will maintain slight chc T) given that there will only be a narrow band of very weak instability (100-400 J/kg of MLCAPE) along and just ahead of the boundary. The strongest convection will remain to our north across ern PA/NJ closer to the better mid/upper level dynamics. Will have likely PoPs spreading east across the entire area (categorical NE) from midday through the evening. Temperatures will immediately fall into the mid 60s (potentially a bit lower) following the FROPA. The resultant sharp pressure rises will likely result in a NW wind briefly gusting to 30-45mph (perhaps isolated gusts to 50mph in areas exposed to the water in the VA Nrn Neck and Lower Ern Shore) along and immediately behind of the front. There will likely be a 2-3 hour period of light-moderate rain in the wake of the front (especially E and NE). SPC's severe wind probs remain to our N, but the highest gusts (likely across our NE zones) may be capable of downing a couple of trees.

QPF still remains very limited west of I-95 (0.15" or less). QPF will be noticeably higher (around 0.25-0.30") across ern VA and the Lower Eastern Shore). Will have lingering PoPs of 40-70% near the coast from 8-11 PM for the light to moderate rain behind the front. Skies should clear fairly quickly from the WNW-ESE tonight as cool high pressure begins to build toward the region from the west. Much cooler with lows dropping back into the 40s for many locations away from the coast (low to mid 50s right along the coast).

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 335 AM EDT Saturday .

Dry/mainly sunny wx and cooler temperatures prevail from Sun-Mon night. NW flow aloft is expected to continue through the short term period as the upper trough slowly pulls away to the NE (but lingers INVOF Atlantic Canada). The surface high will continue to slowly build toward the area, and is progged to become centered just to our WSW by late Mon night. Highs will struggle to make it out of the low to mid 60s on Sunday across much of the area despite full sunshine. Sunday night will be the coolest night of the fall so far. Lows are forecast to be in the low 40s in the VA Piedmont (possibly upper 30s in the typically cooler spots such as LKU), low to mid 40s in most other inland locations, and upper 40s-low 50s near the immediate coast. Forecast highs on Mon are a bit warmer, with upper 60s expected for the vast majority of the area. Cool again Mon night with lows similar to what is expected Sun night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 335 AM EDT Saturday .

NW flow aloft potentially continues through Tue before the flow flattens out and becomes quasi-zonal over the Mid-Atlantic by the middle of next week. The sfc high settles just to our south from Tue- Tue night, then shifts offshore during the latter part of the week. Maintained a dry forecast through Thu, with slight rain chances returning by Friday-Friday night as another cold front approaches. A warming trend is expected from Tue-Thu, with highs warming from the low 70s on Tue to mid-upper 70s by Thu. Mid to upper 70s are expected in most areas on Fri. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night, in the mid 40s to mid 50s Wednesday night, and in the 50s to near 60F Thursday night.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 145 AM EDT Saturday .

VFR/mainly SKC conditions are expected through mid-morning. A cold front will quickly approach the area later today and cross the terminals from WNW-ESE from 20-00z. SW winds ahead of the front will become gusty (to ~20kt) by late morning as mixing increases and the pressure gradient tightens. SCT CU is possible in advance of the front, but no pcpn is expected until the front arrives. A line of low-topped showers (with very little if any thunder) will accompany the FROPA. Gusts of 25-35kt (out of the WNW-NW) are likely at the terminals with that line of showers, and for about 1-2 hours immediately following the FROPA. Pcpn will likely continue for 2-3 hours after the FROPA before quickly ending. CIGs may drop to MVFR for a few hours this aftn/evening, with mainly VFR or MVFR VSBYs in the showers. NW winds diminish to ~10kt by late evening at RIC, but gusts of 15-25kt are likely near the coast tonight. SKC conditions return tonight as drier air filters into the area.

Outlook . VFR/dry conditions continue through early next week. Gusty NW winds will persist through Monday, especially near the coast.

MARINE. As of 350 AM EDT Saturday .

A cold front is currently located along the west slope of the Appalachians and will continue to move east and approach the waters by this aftn. This front is more ana-frontal in nature and therefore the southerly wind surge out ahead of it will be quite marginal at best. SCA headlines have been adjusted to a later start time for the Ocean and Currituck Sound in particular. In any event, by far the more significant winds will be with the sharp wind shift/arrival of colder air later this aftn through this evening. Expect a brief period (about 1 to 2 hours) of gusty winds (potentially 30-40kt) as this occurs. Too short for a Gale Warning but SMWs may be needed during approximately the 20Z- 00Z timeframe. Then a fairly long lived strong SCA event is expected tonight with sustained wind speeds increasing to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt across all areas. Some additional gusts ~35kt gusts will likely occur from time to time at elevated terminals as cold air surges in from the north. NW winds will decrease to 15-20kt by late Sunday afternoon, but are expected to generally remain around 15 to 20 kt through Monday as high pressure builds across the Deep South/TN Valley with low pressure remaining near Atlantic Canada. SCAs have been extended through Sun night for all but the upper rivers and Currituck Sound.

Waves will increase to 2-3 ft with the SW winds Saturday, with seas building to 3-4 ft. Waves build to 3-4ft by Sat night, with seas increasing to 4-6 ft in most areas overnight. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by later Mon/Mon night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 350 AM EDT Saturday

Will be issuing a coastal flood statement for the northern Neck and MD eastern shore adjacent to the Bay (possibly an advisory for Dorchester) as southerly winds ahead of the cold front will bring the potential for minor tidal flooding to the Bay side of the lower MD eastern shore with the upcoming high tide cycle by early this aftn. The current TWL forecast still has only Bishops Head reaching minor flood thresholds, while Cambridge and Crisfield peak just below minor flooding levels. There could be some water remaining trapped into Cambridge as the strong WNW winds arrive late this aftn (probably 1-2 hrs following high tide). Eventually, the larger scale flow of water out of the upper Bay will dominate and departures will drop rapidly later tonight and Sun. Some potential for nuisance/minor flooding along the VA eastern shore (i.e Bayford) as strong NW winds push water into this region through tonight/Sunday morning. A Coastal Flood Statement may be needed there as well.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJB/ERI NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . AJB/ERI LONG TERM . AJB/ERI AVIATION . ERI/RHR MARINE . LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi57 min SSE 6G8 69°F 71°F1009.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi57 min S 12G15 69°F 1009.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi45 min S 14G18 68°F 72°F2 ft1010 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi57 min S 12G13 69°F 73°F1009.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi57 min S 13G16 71°F 71°F1010 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi87 min SSE 20G22 71°F 72°F1009.9 hPa (-1.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi57 min S 8.9G12
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi45 min S 14G16 67°F 72°F1 ft1010.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi57 min WSW 7 64°F 1008 hPa61°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi45 min S 14G18 69°F 72°F1 ft1009.8 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi57 min 72°F 67°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi57 min SSE 2.9G8.9 70°F 73°F1008.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi57 min SSW 8.9G11 67°F 72°F1009.8 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi57 min SSE 1.9G4.1 66°F 73°F1008.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi57 min SSE 4.1G7 68°F 72°F1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi32 minSSE 52.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1009.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi35 minS 710.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1009.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair68°F67°F96%1010.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi32 minS 310.00 miFair68°F63°F83%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0000S300W3W7S503S30SE54S40S5S4S5SE7S4S6
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2 days ago------000SE4000S4SE3000000000000

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:01 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:25 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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