Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ventnor City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:18PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:52 AM EDT (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ventnor City, NJ
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location: 38.51, -73.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160751 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the area today and shift offshore of the east coast by this evening. Steady west to northwest flow will remain across the northeast region for much of the upcoming week with low pressure located to the north across Canada Maritimes and high pressure across the deep south and southeast states. Another cold front is forecast to move across the east coast late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. For those who have been eagerly awaiting fall, your time has come. As a cold front moves across the region today, showers and gusty thunderstorms will usher in a transition from well above normal to slightly below normal highs the next few days.

An upper-level trough currently over the Great Lakes will shift eastward through the weekend, with strong upper-level jet racing from south to north just ahead of it. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move across Ontario into Quebec, with a strong cold front trailing the low along the spine of the Appalachians. Triggering rounds of severe weather across the Ohio Valley yesterday, this front will bring the chance for severe weather to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon as an unstable airmass continues to advect northward across the region. While instability doesn't appear to be anything entirely noteworthy (generally CAPEs sub-1000 J/kg), there will be a good deal of wind shear and helicity to promote some rotating updrafts (0-3km SRH values approaching 250 m2/s2). With strong synoptic and baroclinic forcing present, this will be more of a QLCS day with some embedded stronger cells. We will need to watch for kinks that develop in this line that can tap into the ambient low- level vorticity and possibly induce a quick tornado. In fact, the SPC just upgraded portions of the region to a Slight Risk with a 2% tornado risk basically along and northwest of the I-95 corridor.

Just how clear and unstable we get today remains the paramount question at play. With anvil outflow likely to advect due north, this would promote a clearer regime for us rather than a more parallel flow to the front. However, there are some low and mid- level clouds in a messy satellite imagery composition this morning to our southwest over Virginia that will likely advect somewhat into our region, which could prevent more substantial surface heating and low-level destabilization. Regardless, the synoptic forcing is still quite strong with this system and the unseasonably warm stretch we've had won't likely go out without any bang so to speak. That just doesn't happen this time of year. Also note, with CAPE values on the low side (generally below 1000 J/kg) don't be surprised by a lack of thunder and lightning. This is also quite common with such systems in autumn.

Rainfall still doesn't appear to be an overwhelming concern with this system as the overall storm motion is perpendicular to the cold front rather than flow parallel to a weak front like we saw many times during the summer. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch with a few locations across the Poconos and northwest New Jersey possibly seeing closer to an inch. The gusty to damaging winds will be the bigger story with this system.

Highs today will again climb well above normal amidst WAA ahead of the front into the upper 70s to around 80 along the I-95 corridor. Lows tonight will begin to fall with some mid 40s across the Poconos to low 50s across the remainder of the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. For Sunday through Monday time period, one area of low pressure will drift northward across eastern Canada, while a second low pressure develops across the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, high pressure will drift across the deep south and southeastern states. This will keep a steady west to northwest flow across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Within this northwest flow, a couple of weak surface troughs will move across the area, while the broad mid-level trough and a couple of short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area. There will be enough moisture to lead to a period of stratocumulus across the area, but may also be enough moisture and lift for some showers to develop across portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. This is especially true on Sunday when the low-level lapse rates will be the steepest. We will have a chance to slight chance of showers on Sunday across eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, with only a slight chance of showers on Monday across the Poconos and northwest New Jersey. Winds both days will be quite gusty with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The steady west to northwest flow will remain across the region for the first half of the long term for Tuesday into Wednesday, before return flow develops by Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to remain dry as northwest flow aloft will keep dry air across the area. Winds for Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be gusty out of the west to northwest 20-25 mph.

By Thursday, return flow develops as the high pressure to our south shifts offshore ahead of the next approaching frontal system which is expected to move across the area Thursday night into Friday. There are some differences between model guidance in how much moisture and precipitation will be associated with this frontal passage. Nevertheless, there will be a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers for the Thursday night through Friday time period.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR initially to start the day with southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots. Wind gusts will increase through the morning and afternoon up to 25 knots at times. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z along and ahead of a cold front. The strongest of these will move from west to east across the region from 20-23, crossing the Philly terminals likely sometime around 21Z with the greatest wind shift from south-southwest to westerly. Expect abrupt restrictions to MVFR and possibly even IFR with VSBY reductions and lowering CIGs. High confidence in evolution, lower confidence in exact timing of categorical changes within the 20-23Z timeframe.

Tonight . Lingering MVFR should improve with mostly low-end VFR into the early portion of the night. Rain will shift out of the region from west to east through 03Z. Westerly winds from 5 to 10 knots and gusts from 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday . Mostly VFR. Chance or slight chance of showers across eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. West to northwest winds 10-15 knots, gusting 20-25 knots.

Sunday night-Wednesday . VFR conditions expected. west to northwest winds 10-15 knots during the day with gusts 15-25 knots; gusts dropping off overnight and speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots overnight.

MARINE. Southerly winds increasing through the day with gusts to 30 knots ahead of a cold front. Winds will shift to the west after 7-8 pm as the front passes through the region. An SCA remains in effect from 8 am through 6 am Sunday. Seas from 3 to 5 feet.

Tonight . Westerly winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots and seas from 3 to 5 feet. An SCA remains in effect through 6 am Sunday.

Outlook .

Sunday . Winds may briefly drop below Small Craft Advisory levels early in the day Sunday, before increasing later in the day to advisory levels.

Sunday night-Monday . Small Craft Advisory levels expected.

Monday night-Tuesday . Winds may fall below advisory levels for a period overnight Monday into Tuesday, before winds increase again later on Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday . Winds may begin Tuesday night above advisory levels, before lowering below advisory levels overnight and continuing through Wednesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455.



Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Davis Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Davis/Robertson Marine . Davis/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 72 mi42 min S 12G14 69°F 70°F1011.2 hPa66°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 82 mi58 min 69°F 70°F1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ90 mi56 minS 710.00 mi67°F63°F87%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

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2 days ago0000NE43N3W5W33NW3NW4W4W4000000000W4

Tide / Current Tables for Waretown, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Waretown
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic City (Steel Pier), New Jersey
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Atlantic City (Steel Pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:08 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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