Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Secretary, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 1:35 PM EDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:31PMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1036 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late tonight. Canadian high pressure will then build southward toward the waters through the end of the work week, continuing into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Secretary, MD
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location: 38.57, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281613 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1213 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move through the region later today. After that, a broad surface high will move southeastward towards New England and the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the week into the weekend. An area of low pressure may move into the region late in the weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A shortwave trough axis and associated mid-level vorticity maxima are working through the Mid-Atlantic region at this time. A cold front is currently across the PA/NY border and will track through the forecast area from north to south as the day progresses and is anticipated to be offshore/south of the area shortly after midnight.

After this morning convection moves northeast or weakens, an additional round of convection is expected to develop along or ahead of the cold front and possibly any remnant boundaries associated with the morning convection into the early/mid afternoon hours (1-4 PM), mainly across southeast PA and central NJ. This activity is expected to move southeastward and offshore during the evening hours.

There will be a threat of severe thunderstorms with any of the more robust cells that develop. Diurnal instability will be in the 1000- 1500+ J/kg range along with deep layer effective shear around 25 kts. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km and DCAPE >700 J/kg could result in fairly strong updrafts and downdrafts with small hail and strong/damaging winds possible. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for areas near and south of Philly with a Marginal Risk for most of the remainder of the forecast area. PWats around 1.3-1.5" along with a progressive storm motion should preclude any widespread notable flash flood threat, but some localized flooding may be possible.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low-mid 70s north/west of I-95 and around 80 degrees near/south of the Philly metro. Winds will be from the west ahead of the front, then turn northerly behind the front around 5-10 mph with higher gusts during the day. Expect lows falling into the upper 40s to 50s for most tonight along with clearing skies.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will develop and move northward over the Canadian Maritimes during this period while high pressure gradually builds in from the north and west. In the upper levels, a large closed low will wobble through SE Canada and northern New England. This pattern will result in a dry, cool northerly flow over the area. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 60s to low 70s under a mix of sun and some fair weather clouds. Lows Wednesday night will be mostly in the 40s to low 50s. However by Friday morning the winds will be lighter as high pressure draws closer and this may allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s over the southern Poconos and extreme NW NJ.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. No major changes to the long range forecast with this update. A closed upper low will meander across Atlantic Canada into this weekend with upper level ridging remaining centered to our north over eastern Ontario into Quebec. Guidance still varies in how quickly this blocking pattern will break down into the weekend, but this will ultimately keep Hurricane Sam well out to sea at our latitude as it begins moving poleward. At the surface, weak and cool high pressure will remain entrenched across the region through at least Friday and likely into Saturday. This will continue to be a largely quiet and tranquil period of weather for the region, at least through Friday/Saturday and possibly right through the weekend

High temperatures will be near to a bit below normal during this period with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s. Lows will once again be quite chilly early Saturday with temperatures potentially getting to around or below 40 across the southern Poconos into NW NJ.

Cloud coverage looks like its going to beginning increasing into the weekend. Given that a consensus in guidance suggests this pattern will begin to break down at that time, we have maintained the slight chance of showers for Sunday and Monday but for Sunday this should mainly be just for the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of the daytime hours (lingering into the evening for MIV/ACY). Restrictions are probable with any showers and storms that develop near or over terminals. Winds initially westerly around 5-10 kts will shift northerly by around 00Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight . Prevailing VFR. Lingering showers and storms at MIV/ACY should end in the 03-06Z time frame. Winds northerly around 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Prevailing VFR. Some patchy fog possible in the pre-dawn hours. Winds north to northwesterly around 5-10 kts during the daytime and 5 kts or less at night. High confidence overall.

MARINE. Winds and seas will subside slightly through early this morning, then sub-advisory conditions expected. Westerly winds around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts will become northerly by around midnight. Seas 2-4 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Saturday . Sub-advisory conditions expected until maybe Saturday. Winds northerly around 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet . maybe some 5 foot swells this weekend as Sam passes well to our east.

Rip Currents .

A LOW risk of dangerous rip currents is expected for Tue and Wed. Showers and a few tstms expected Tue.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Staarmann Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Fitzsimmons/Kruzdlo Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Marine . Fitzsimmons/Staarmann


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 4 mi47 min WNW 2.9 G 6 77°F 74°F1012.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi41 min S 5.8 G 9.7 73°F 74°F1 ft1013.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi47 min ESE 9.9 G 12 74°F 1012.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 24 mi47 min SSW 6 G 7 74°F 73°F1012.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi47 min WSW 8 G 11 78°F 76°F1012.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi35 min SE 6 G 7 77°F 74°F1012.2 hPa (-1.1)
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi41 min 79°F 74°F1011.2 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi47 min 81°F 64°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 38 mi47 min SW 6 G 12 81°F 75°F1011 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 40 mi65 min WNW 5.1 79°F 1012 hPa63°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 41 mi41 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 76°F1 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi47 min N 11 G 14
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 6 75°F 72°F1011.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi65 min W 5.1 81°F 1011 hPa62°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 47 mi47 min ESE 1 G 1.9 76°F 73°F1012.8 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 49 mi47 min E 6 G 6 76°F 71°F1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD3 mi40 minW 610.00 miFair82°F63°F51%1011.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi45 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F63°F58%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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S9S4S4CalmCalm44S55S4SE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW3Calm3W4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cambridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Cambridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:50 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.210.90.91.11.31.51.71.71.61.41.10.90.60.50.60.81.21.51.822

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.21 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.20.20.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.60.50.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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