Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 1:55 PM

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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1035 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening - .
Rest of tonight - S winds 10 kt - .becoming e. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a slow-moving front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Unsettled conditions look to linger over the waters heading into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday.

FXUS61 KLWX 030116 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 916 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level ridge will build over the area overnight through Friday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will cross the area overnight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A backdoor cold front, currently slicing southwestward across southeastern Pennsylvania, will slowly continue to move in toward our CWA from the northeast. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

A brief ridge of high pressure will erode to a shortwave from the west on Friday. The backdoor cold front will move into our region and bank up against the Blue Ridge on Friday. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes, bringing a stronger cold front to the region for the weekend.

The backdoor cold front will become the focus area for higher POPs Friday, before expanding eastward as a second front approaches the region. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms begins Friday evening and remain restricted to near and west of the Blue Ridge until the weekend.

High temperatures could get into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A stronger cold front will move into the region Saturday into Saturday night. Rain chances increase from west to east Saturday afternoon/evening with the steadiest rain arriving Saturday night. WPC QPF has the area getting around an inch of rain total late week into Saturday with some locally higher totals along the Alleghenies. Will continue to monitor the flood threat.

High temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than Friday, keeping us in the 60s to low 70s at best.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A lingering low pressure will continue to move through the area late in the weekend with an associated cold front. Widespread showers will build in early Sunday with isolated thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation will be most steady early in the day with continued chances throughout the remainder of the weekend and into early Monday. Frontal boundaries will linger through at least midweek with renewed shower and thunderstorms chances, especially each afternoon.
The unsettled pattern looks to stick around even into the later part of next week.

Temperatures will start out in the low to mid 70s on Sunday before gradually warming a few degrees each day, with mid to late week highs getting into the mid to upper 80s to even some low 90s for the lower elevations. Overnight lows will mostly be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Friday with high pressure and fair weather cumulus. Clouds increase through the day Friday with onshore flow and an approaching cold front from the west. Sub-VFR cigs could reach the terminals by Friday night, and continue through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday as showers and thunderstorms impact the terminals throughout the day. Gusty southerly winds early on Sunday will slowly subside by the midday and remain lighter into Monday.

MARINE
A surge of slightly stronger winds could move over the waters with a backdoor cold front overnight, but confidence is also low regarding duration of SCA criteria gusts.

Onshore flow strengthens by Friday afternoon and SCAs are in effect. Additional advisories will likely be needed continuing through Saturday as low pressure and an associated cold front approaches over the weekend.

SCAs will be possible early Sunday morning before winds diminish through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters, cannot rule out an isolated SMW, especially early Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels late Friday through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding expected during the weekend, especially by Saturday night. Sensitive shoreline like Annapolis and Straits Point could approach moderate flood levels.

CLIMATE
Well above normal temperatures this past afternoon, where record high temperatures were either broken or tied as we saw a few sites reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Below is a list of daily high temperature records.

==================================================================== Record Daily High Temperatures for Thursday 05/02 ==================================================================== Site Thursday 05/02 value (Year record was set)
-------------------------------------------------------------------- Record Highs Thursday 05/02

Sites Records/Year Forecast High Washington DC (DCA) 91/2018 90 Dulles(IAD) 88/2018 89 Baltimore, MD (BWI) 90/2018 93 Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 95/1942 86 Charlottesville, VA (CHO) 91/2018 89 Hagerstown, MD (HGR) 90/2018 86 Annapolis, MD (NAK) 90/1992 84

=================================================================== =

Site Legend ------------------------ DCA area - Washington DC BWI area - Baltimore MD Table Legend IAD area - Sterling/Dulles VA ------------------------ MRB area - Martinsburg WV Temperature (Year)
CHO area - Charlottesville VA HGR area - Hagerstown MD NAK area - Annapolis MD

Although the facilities (airports, etc.) where temperatures are currently observed were built in the mid to late 20th century, additional temperature records taken at nearby sites before that extend the valid periods of record back into the late 1800s (except for IAD, where records go back to 1960).

Record Event Reports (RERs) are only issued for the sites denoted with a (*).

All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

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Plum Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Plum Point, Maryland, Tide feet

Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true

Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.34 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots

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