Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:22PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:04PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 436 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Friday...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will reside offshore through this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is expected to cross the waters by early Friday morning. Then, a second front is slated to cross the waters Friday night. High pressure is slated to build over the area through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 211848 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure off to our south and east will continue to shift further offshore as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will cross the region overnight into Friday, followed by an additional weaker front on Friday. Dry and seasonable temperatures are slated for the weekend. However our next system may arrive by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A potent upper low is swinging across the Great Lakes at this time, pushing east. This will slide by to our north tonight as an area of low pressure underneath it drags a cold front through the area. The cold front is currently located over western OH and gradually moving towards western MD. There are 2 distinct lines of convection, with one being along the front and one out ahead of the front. Lots of shear present with this system (~40-50 kts)as it moves in our direction, but not much in the way of instability (<500 J/kg west of the Alleghenies). As this convection moves towards the area, instability may build a little more out ahead of the first line, so could bring down some gusty winds as it approaches western MD. However, do think we are going to run out of daylight, thus limiting any severe threat for our area. If there is a threat, it is Garrett County, MD. Anywhere further east, and there will likely be no instability to work with.

The cold front will push through overnight, and a secondary shortwave from North Carolina could produce a stray shower or two across southern Maryland overnight through Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Closed upper level low over the Great Lakes will continue to retrograde in place Friday. As a result, a second surge of shortwave advection will move eastward across the region. Any precip chances seem minimal on Friday, with the exception of some upslope showers across the Alleghenies. The low will slowly shift northward on Saturday as high pressure returns for the weekend.

Upper trough is still present to our north on Saturday, with shortwave energy exiting the region throughout the day as high pressure builds in at the surface. This should lead to a quiet day with perhaps some high clouds around, especially along the MD/PA border and along/west of the Allegheny Front. Cooler temperatures expected, with highs in the 60s, which is around average for mid-late October.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The long term period will start off with a large upper low spiraling over Ontario and Quebec. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave will eject from the Rockies toward the Central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the area. Guidance has trended toward most of the area staying dry on Sunday, with the bulk of the warm advection precipitation staying to the north of the front across PA.

Forecast uncertainty increases substantially heading into Monday, as the aforementioned shortwave tracks further east, along with a weak area of low pressure. Meanwhile, high pressure will strengthen well to our north over Canada. The positioning of the aforementioned boundary will depend on the relative strength of these two features, with some solutions crashing the boundary southward as a backdoor cold front, and other solutions keeping us in the warm sector on Monday. As a result, ensemble guidance shows substantial spread, with individual members ranging from high temperatures in the 40s to highs in the upper 70s. There are substantial differences with respect to the timing of precipitation as well, with some solutions producing rain starting late Monday afternoon into Monday Night, and others holding off until Tuesday. Spread in model guidance remains substantial through Wednesday. As a result, the long term forecast is much lower confidence than normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Light S/SSW flow continues through the evening hours with VFR conditions expected. A cold front will swing through the region overnight tonight, resulting in a wind shift out of the NW. Some showers may make it to MRB, but likely not much of significance. Otherwise, remaining dry and VFR at all terminals overnight. Some LLWS possible ahead of the frontal passage at the northern terminals (MRB and MTN), and potentially IAD/BWI/DCA as well.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Drops to sub-VFR may be possible at times on Monday, but conditions will dependent on both the positioning of showers and a surface front, with sub-VFR conditions more likely to the north of the front.

MARINE. Southerly winds ahead of a cold front that will cross the waters tonight. Winds will uptick with the strongest wind fields clipping the wide waters of the middle portion of the Chesapeake Bay this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for portions of the waters for this uptick in winds.

A second front will approach Friday night, but will be accompanied by a weak pressure gradient. This will continue to support light winds across the waters. Winds should remain below SCA criteria Saturday out of the northwest.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on Sunday. Winds may approach SCA levels Sunday Night into Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Anomalies have gradually risen throughout the day today. Most sites have experienced no issues, but Annapolis may reach action stage during this afternoon's high tide cycle. Otherwise, areas should remain below action stage. Winds become more WNW behind a cold front on Friday, allowing anamolies to decrease through the weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ531>533-537-539>541. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-543.

SYNOPSIS . CJL NEAR TERM . CJL SHORT TERM . CJL/SOUZA LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . CJL/KJP MARINE . CJL/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 5 mi40 min SSE 9.7G14 67°F 68°F3 ft1013.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 14 mi52 min SE 7G9.9 72°F 1013.1 hPa (-1.9)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi82 min W 6 74°F 1012 hPa50°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi52 min SW 8G12 75°F 70°F1012.9 hPa (-1.9)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi52 min SSE 16G17 70°F 68°F1013.3 hPa (-2.4)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi52 min SSE 8G14 74°F 65°F1012.8 hPa (-2.2)
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi40 min E 7.8G14 69°F 68°F1 ft1013.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi52 min SE 6G8.9 71°F 70°F1012.1 hPa (-2.2)
CPVM2 29 mi52 min 70°F 59°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi52 min SW 12G16
NCDV2 34 mi52 min S 5.1G8 76°F 70°F1012.4 hPa (-1.9)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi52 min S 7G8 74°F 69°F1012.4 hPa (-1.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi52 min S 17G20 71°F 67°F1013.4 hPa (-2.1)
44042 - Potomac, MD 39 mi40 min S 9.7G16 72°F 69°F1014.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi52 min SW 9.9G12 76°F 67°F1013.4 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 44 mi52 min SSE 8.9G11 71°F 1012.2 hPa (-2.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi52 min SSE 11G13 70°F 1012.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi52 min S 8G12 71°F 67°F1012.7 hPa (-2.1)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 47 mi52 min SSE 2.9G7 73°F 72°F1011.6 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi57 minSSW 510.00 miFair77°F52°F42%1013.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi60 minSSW 610.00 miFair79°F50°F36%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00000000SW3000000S4S4SW5SW5SW6SW8W9S3SW6
1 day agoSW30000W4W3W30SW300W300W5W8W9
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2 days ago000000W30W3W30W30W3W4W4SW5W6NW7W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Plum Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Thu -- 01:19 AM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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