Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday October 28, 2021 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 1:30PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 438 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.storm warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect Friday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 30 kt late. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Increasing to 50 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 438 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore later today. A large area of low pressure will track into the region tonight into Friday, promoting a strong onshore flow. The low will gradually lift away from the area by the end of the weekend. Gale warnings are in effect for all waters for Friday morning into Friday night. Small craft advisories will likely follow after gale conditions diminish into early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 282016 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 416 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to move off the north and east as low pressure moves towards our region out of the Tennessee River Valleys and affects our region Friday and Saturday. The low will move north and east out of the region Sunday with high pressure gradually building eastward out of the center portion of the country into next week. A cold front looks to push southward across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Dry weather continues today as we sit in between weather systems. High pressure to the north will continue to pull north and east away from the region as the next area of low pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic. Light easterly winds with highs in the low 60s this afternoon. Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the low 40s north to low 50s south into the Delmarva Peninsula.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A complex weather system as we end the workweek continues to take shape as a closed 500 mb low moves out of the central CONUS onto the East Coast. With the surface low moving up the western spine of the Appalachians, this pushes an occluded front through much of our region.

Hydro continues to remain a concern, albeit somewhat lesser of a concern if you're looking for a silver lining. Guidance continues to elongate the trough as it remerges with the parent flow to the north, with cyclogenesis mostly occuring to our south and west. The main concern is the antecedent conditions following the recent nor'easter, especially across northern and central New Jersey. Decided not to issue a Flood Watch at this point given the recent lower QPF trend, which has been noted with WPC as well. Currently closer to 1-2" is forecast with the higher amounts looking less likely than previous runs. Still, flash flood guidance across these areas is less than 2 inches for a 12-hour period and we could easily see these rainfall amounts locally. River flooding is likely to be the main concern anyways, and response time in the Raritan and Passaic basins won't go into flood until Saturday, so we have time to tune out the finer details. Definitely need to keep watch on this as river flooding is likely across these basins, but just how bad remains uncertain.

Wind: The low level jet (50-60 kt) will move through the region Friday afternoon and evening and with good momentum transport we have increased confidence that there will be some higher winds across Delmarva and extreme southeastern New Jersey. Model soundings show the strong winds mixing down further inland than previously thought and we have expanded the Wind Advisory to include our eastern shore of Maryland, where there are concerns for the more exposed areas along the Chesapeake Bay. Additionally, there is a period of time during Friday afternoon that winds of 45-55 mph may mix down to the surface along the immediate coast of Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey and we have issued a High Wind Warning for those two zones.

To make matters more complicated, there is the potential for some severe weather Friday morning across portions of Delmarva with the risk advancing northward with the front through the afternoon. It will definitely bear monitoring over the next 12-24 hours.

The system starts to wind down as we head into Saturday and things should start to dry out from southwest to northeast later in the day, with rain possible through much of the day as the low starts to track to the north and east. The strong east winds will slacken off and become more southwesterly through the day. Don't fully expect the skies to clear but would not be surprised to see peeks of sun, moreso over southern areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Moving into the long-term a period of generally quiet weather is anticipated. The low pressure system from the weekend continues to move away from the area with the H5 trough moving through near the beginning of the period. The GFS and EC differ on the timing, but both of these have the trough well off the coast by 00Z Monday with the associated low pressure center well into Canada. High temperatures on Sunday look to be a couple of notches lower than on Saturday across the CWA. Later Sunday into Monday features mainly a zonal flow with winds shifting around to the southwest a bit as the next cold front starts to move southward. This cold front is projected to move through much of the area later in the day Monday, but at this point the precipitation potential looks pretty limited. The EC has the front getting right about to the Mason-Dixon Line by 00Z Tuesday, but the GFS has a slower progression. Northern areas have the best potential to get any precipitation into Tuesday, but POP remains under 20 there. Behind this front, expect CAA starting later Monday. By Tuesday, expect high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s in the southern portions of Delaware and a couple of degrees within 60 along and near the I-95 corridor. Temperatures in the Poconos may struggle to reach 50 on Tuesday. Wednesday continues the push of cooler air with high temperatures dropping another 2-4 degrees from Tuesday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . VFR expected to continue at the terminals with the exception of KACY where MVFR cigs have moved in from the east and will persist through the day. Easterly winds around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR early then expect MVFR cigs to arrive after 02Z. Cigs will generally remain above 1500 ft at the terminals overnight. Easterly winds 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday . MVFR to start the day with conditions lowering towards 16- 18Z as rain starts to move into the region. Gusty east winds around 10 to 20 knots, increasing later in the day to 15 to 25 knots. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 knots after 18Z, with the higher gusts expected at KACY and KMIV. Moderate confidence but lower confidence on exact arrival of lower cigs and timing of heavy rain.

Outlook .

Saturday . MVFR and possibly even lower conditions for the first half of the day with rain showers gradually coming to an end as they move from south to north. Showers may linger into the afternoon as conditions improve. Southerly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night . VFR with southwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. There is some potential for patchy dense fog with associated restrictions. High confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night . VFR with westerly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. High confidence.

Monday and Monday night . VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware through tonight. Winds will start to ramp up overnight from south to north and approach gales around daybreak. Gales warnings are up for the Delaware Bay and the northern and central New Jersey waters. With a strong low level jet moving across the southern New Jersey and Delaware waters Friday afternoon, there is increased confidence that we will see 50 kt gusts occur and we have issued a Storm Warning for those areas. The Storm Warning starts in the morning but covers the period of gales before the highest winds are expected. Once the strongest winds have passed and the storm warnings are taken down, a brief period of gale/sca conditions will remain and additional headlines may be needed.

Outlook .

Saturday though Sunday . Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters early Saturday with the Delaware Bay dropping below criteria Saturday morning. Seas will remain elevated on the ocean and Small Craft Advisories may be needed through Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday . Seas should fall below 5 feet by early Monday with sub-SCA conditions expected on the area waters through Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The next low pressure system will approach from the west and southwest tomorrow. As it approaches the region, strong onshore flow is expected tomorrow. This will allow little opportunity for water to drain away from the coast. Tidal departures are already running high with the coastal low earlier this week. Consequently, coastal flooding is likely for at least the next few days. Despite astronomical tides still being at least 2 ft below minor flooding thresholds, the departures will be enough for widespread minor flooding with the higher of the astronomical tides, and potential for moderate flooding with the Friday high tide.

Starting with the high tide later today, widespread minor tidal flooding is expected, so a coastal flood advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coasts, Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River.

The Friday high tide is currently the tide of greatest concern, as moderate tidal flooding looks likely, primarily for the DE and southern NJ coasts, and the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River.

Even outside of the higher astronomical tides, tidal flooding may persist on back bays, especially Barnegat Bay in NJ and Little Assawoman Bay in DE. Due to the flow regime, water will be very slow to drain out of back bays, so tidal departures will likely build with time.

For the Chesapeake Bay: we should fall short of minor tidal flooding with the high tide later this morning, but after that, we could have 2 consecutive high tides of minor tidal flooding. With the Friday night high tide, the risk is increasing for moderate tidal flooding. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the tonight and Friday morning high tides, and a coastal flood watch has been issued for the Friday night high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for PAZ070-071-106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-020>027. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for NJZ024. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ021-023-024. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for NJZ021>023- 025. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for NJZ015-017>019. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE . Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for DEZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for DEZ002-003. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD . Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015- 019-020. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for MDZ012-015-019-020. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>452. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ453>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Davis Short Term . Davis/Meola Long Term . Clayton Aviation . Davis/Meola Marine . Meola Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi58 min SE 7G8.9 67°F 63°F1011.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi52 min SSE 14G18 62°F 66°F1 ft1012.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi88 min SSE 4.1G5.1 62°F 66°F1012.8 hPa (-0.7)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi58 min E 7G8.9 63°F 1011.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 24 mi52 min S 5.8G7.8 61°F 66°F1012.8 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi58 min 63°F 53°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi58 min ESE 4.1G6 64°F 67°F1011.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi58 min SE 8.9G11 63°F 67°F1011.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi58 min S 5.1 66°F 1011 hPa53°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi58 min SSE 6G6 64°F 63°F1012 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi58 min N 2.9G4.1 61°F 64°F1012.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi58 min SE 7G8 62°F 1011.9 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi58 min ESE 7G8 61°F 1011.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi58 min SE 8.9G9.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi52 min SSE 12G14 61°F 66°F1012.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi58 min SSE 1.9G7 65°F 67°F1011.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi58 min SE 6G8.9 66°F 63°F1010.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi58 min SE 6 62°F 1013 hPa53°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi31 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F54°F68%1012.9 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi33 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F50°F56%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N400N4N3000000000N30SE30E500E6E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     0.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     -0.21 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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