Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Vernon, VA
May 7, 2024 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:31 AM Moonset 6:58 PM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 435 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of the overnight - Light winds. Waves flat. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - NW winds 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 070759 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue through the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A potent cold front will cross the area Thursday into Friday, bringing an increased threat for flooding and severe thunderstorms. Rain chances diminish and cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with high pressure nearing the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early morning convection and showers have continued to diminish and moved further to the east. Some brief breaks in the clouds coupled with light winds will likely allow for areas of patchy fog with even some localized dense pockets occurring through sunrise. A fairly quiet start to the day with just a few showers moving in from the west. By the afternoon, some convection may pop up around the area with overall coverage being pretty low.
Should any of these thunderstorms become strong, an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The most likely hazard would be damaging winds. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
By tonight, a cluster of thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley will approach our western areas. These storms should be diminishing as they reach the area so severe chances are non-zero but fairly low.
This convection may actually help suppress further storms during the day on Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop down into the 60s for most locations.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Early morning convection as a result of a decaying MCS on Wednesday should begin to scoot further east of the area by just after sunrise. A mix of sun and clouds should progress throughout the day with some afternoon convection potentially forming, especially the further south across central VA. Given the breaks in the clouds amplifying the instability, any storms that do form have the potential to become strong to severe. The main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. The overall probabilities looks fairly low given the latest guidance but we will continue to monitor this event. Highs on Wednesday will soar into the mid to upper 80s across many lower elevation locations, with even a few areas potentially hitting 90 degrees. The mountains will be in the mid to upper 70s for the afternoon.
Clouds will increase Wednesday night ahead of a potent cold front poised to cross the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Shower chances begin to increase across the southwest late Wednesday night and by early Thursday morning most areas will increase the chances of precipitation greatly. Instability parameters increase by Thursday afternoon just ahead of the cold front, this will allow for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Steep low-level lapse rates support large hail along with damaging winds with any of these storms. Overall severe coverage may be limited with the enhanced cloud coverage prior to initiation but it will be worth monitoring. Additionally, given the antecedent conditions, cannot rule out isolated instances of flooding (especially along and west of the Blue Ridge) Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
Northwest flow kicks in behind the cold front Thursday night and will bring lows in the 40s along the Allegheny Front with 50s further east.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
By Friday morning, we should be situated within a noticeably cooler and less humid post-cold frontal environment.
Temperatures should only climb into the 60s to lower 70s Friday, with dewpoints holding in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The day should start out dry, but chances for showers will be on the increase during the afternoon as a shortwave trough rapidly approaches from the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This shortwave trough will pass to our east Saturday morning. However, longwave troughing over the Eastern US will be maintained by another shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. We'll start the day off within the zone of subsidence behind the departing shortwave, which should lead to a mostly sunny start to the day. Clouds should be on the increase through the afternoon though as ascent ahead of the next shortwave starts to approach from the west. Depending on the timing/progression of the next shortwave, some showers may be possible Saturday afternoon, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. Chances for showers will increase across the entire area Saturday night into Sunday as the main upper trough axis moves overhead. High temperatures this weekend are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Spread in model guidance starts to increase by Monday, but the general trend will be for heights to rise aloft as upper troughing departs off to our east. This will allow high pressure to build toward the area at the surface, and a warming trend to ensue. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low-mid 70s on Monday.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through this morning before gradual improvements throughout the day. Some patchy to dense fog will be possible through 14-15z before lifting. VFR conditions return this afternoon with brief instances of sub-VFR ceilings with any showers/thunderstorms that impact the terminals later today. Added VCTS to most terminals starting at 20z and ending by 03z tonight.
VFR conditions are most likely on Wednesday after early morning showers and thunderstorms move further east. Coverage of precipitation looks to be fairly limited on Wednesday. Light winds today will likely turn more westerly by Wednesday, gusting up to 20 knots for the afternoon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday, although a passing shower could briefly drop conditions to sub-VFR either day. Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday, and then out of the west on Saturday.
MARINE
Lights winds will linger for the waters today. An isolated shower/thunderstorm may impact the waters this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Winds may increase on Wednesday, nearing SCA criteria, especially in the northern Bay. SCA conditions continue Thursday with increased possibilities for a few SMWs as a result of strong to even severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening.
SCA conditions appear possible in northwesterly flow on Friday.
Winds may be slightly weaker within westerly flow on Saturday, but may still potentially approach low-end SCA levels.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have decreased markedly from yesterday afternoon into the overnight hours. As a result, no flooding is expected with the next two tide cycles. Some of the more sensitive sites will reach Action stage during that time. Winds turn southerly tonight, which should allow anomalies to increase again. Some of the more sensitive sites may approach Minor flood stage with the tide cycle tomorrow morning. Thereafter, winds turn westerly for both Wednesday and Thursday, which should allow anomalies to decrease once again.ld be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue through the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A potent cold front will cross the area Thursday into Friday, bringing an increased threat for flooding and severe thunderstorms. Rain chances diminish and cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with high pressure nearing the area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early morning convection and showers have continued to diminish and moved further to the east. Some brief breaks in the clouds coupled with light winds will likely allow for areas of patchy fog with even some localized dense pockets occurring through sunrise. A fairly quiet start to the day with just a few showers moving in from the west. By the afternoon, some convection may pop up around the area with overall coverage being pretty low.
Should any of these thunderstorms become strong, an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The most likely hazard would be damaging winds. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
By tonight, a cluster of thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley will approach our western areas. These storms should be diminishing as they reach the area so severe chances are non-zero but fairly low.
This convection may actually help suppress further storms during the day on Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop down into the 60s for most locations.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Early morning convection as a result of a decaying MCS on Wednesday should begin to scoot further east of the area by just after sunrise. A mix of sun and clouds should progress throughout the day with some afternoon convection potentially forming, especially the further south across central VA. Given the breaks in the clouds amplifying the instability, any storms that do form have the potential to become strong to severe. The main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. The overall probabilities looks fairly low given the latest guidance but we will continue to monitor this event. Highs on Wednesday will soar into the mid to upper 80s across many lower elevation locations, with even a few areas potentially hitting 90 degrees. The mountains will be in the mid to upper 70s for the afternoon.
Clouds will increase Wednesday night ahead of a potent cold front poised to cross the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Shower chances begin to increase across the southwest late Wednesday night and by early Thursday morning most areas will increase the chances of precipitation greatly. Instability parameters increase by Thursday afternoon just ahead of the cold front, this will allow for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Steep low-level lapse rates support large hail along with damaging winds with any of these storms. Overall severe coverage may be limited with the enhanced cloud coverage prior to initiation but it will be worth monitoring. Additionally, given the antecedent conditions, cannot rule out isolated instances of flooding (especially along and west of the Blue Ridge) Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.
Northwest flow kicks in behind the cold front Thursday night and will bring lows in the 40s along the Allegheny Front with 50s further east.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
By Friday morning, we should be situated within a noticeably cooler and less humid post-cold frontal environment.
Temperatures should only climb into the 60s to lower 70s Friday, with dewpoints holding in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The day should start out dry, but chances for showers will be on the increase during the afternoon as a shortwave trough rapidly approaches from the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This shortwave trough will pass to our east Saturday morning. However, longwave troughing over the Eastern US will be maintained by another shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. We'll start the day off within the zone of subsidence behind the departing shortwave, which should lead to a mostly sunny start to the day. Clouds should be on the increase through the afternoon though as ascent ahead of the next shortwave starts to approach from the west. Depending on the timing/progression of the next shortwave, some showers may be possible Saturday afternoon, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. Chances for showers will increase across the entire area Saturday night into Sunday as the main upper trough axis moves overhead. High temperatures this weekend are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Spread in model guidance starts to increase by Monday, but the general trend will be for heights to rise aloft as upper troughing departs off to our east. This will allow high pressure to build toward the area at the surface, and a warming trend to ensue. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the low-mid 70s on Monday.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through this morning before gradual improvements throughout the day. Some patchy to dense fog will be possible through 14-15z before lifting. VFR conditions return this afternoon with brief instances of sub-VFR ceilings with any showers/thunderstorms that impact the terminals later today. Added VCTS to most terminals starting at 20z and ending by 03z tonight.
VFR conditions are most likely on Wednesday after early morning showers and thunderstorms move further east. Coverage of precipitation looks to be fairly limited on Wednesday. Light winds today will likely turn more westerly by Wednesday, gusting up to 20 knots for the afternoon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday, although a passing shower could briefly drop conditions to sub-VFR either day. Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday, and then out of the west on Saturday.
MARINE
Lights winds will linger for the waters today. An isolated shower/thunderstorm may impact the waters this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Winds may increase on Wednesday, nearing SCA criteria, especially in the northern Bay. SCA conditions continue Thursday with increased possibilities for a few SMWs as a result of strong to even severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening.
SCA conditions appear possible in northwesterly flow on Friday.
Winds may be slightly weaker within westerly flow on Saturday, but may still potentially approach low-end SCA levels.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have decreased markedly from yesterday afternoon into the overnight hours. As a result, no flooding is expected with the next two tide cycles. Some of the more sensitive sites will reach Action stage during that time. Winds turn southerly tonight, which should allow anomalies to increase again. Some of the more sensitive sites may approach Minor flood stage with the tide cycle tomorrow morning. Thereafter, winds turn westerly for both Wednesday and Thursday, which should allow anomalies to decrease once again.ld be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 14 mi | 55 min | SSE 1.9G | 69°F | 70°F | 29.80 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 22 mi | 73 min | 0 | 65°F | 29.80 | 65°F | ||
| NCDV2 | 25 mi | 55 min | W 1.9G | 67°F | 67°F | 29.78 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 37 mi | 43 min | W 3.9G | 62°F | 65°F | 0 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 38 mi | 43 min | S 1.9G | 65°F | 29.84 | |||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 39 mi | 55 min | 0G | 65°F | 69°F | 29.80 | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 40 mi | 43 min | N 3.9G | 63°F | 63°F | 0 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 42 mi | 55 min | SSW 2.9G | 66°F | 29.81 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 42 mi | 55 min | NW 1G | 65°F | 64°F | 29.79 | ||
| CPVM2 | 44 mi | 55 min | 65°F | 65°F | ||||
| CBCM2 | 48 mi | 55 min | ENE 2.9G | 66°F | 29.80 | |||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 48 mi | 55 min | NE 2.9G | 65°F | ||||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 55 min | 0G | |||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 49 mi | 55 min | 0G | 66°F | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA | 5 sm | 16 min | calm | 3/8 sm | -- | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.78 | |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 12 sm | 43 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.80 | |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 15 sm | 17 min | calm | 7 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.78 | |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 17 sm | 32 min | calm | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Mist | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.81 |
| KHEF MANASSAS RGNL/HARRY P DAVIS FIELD,VA | 22 sm | 21 min | SSE 03 | 1 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 29.81 | |||
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 23 sm | 12 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Fog | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.81 |
Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:28 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT 2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT 3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:28 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT 2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Marshall Hall, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 3.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.8 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
High Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:56 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT 1.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:56 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT 1.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Sterling, VA,
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