Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Federalsburg, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:11 PM EDT (23:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 437 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Friday...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 5 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will continue to push across the region late this afternoon as high pressure gradually builds back in from the west. High pressure will remain in control for the weekend. However a weak cold front may cross the region Saturday night where small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Federalsburg, MD
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location: 38.7, -75.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 232242 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 642 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. The cold front will continue to push offshore through this evening then stall offshore through this weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure briefly builds into the Mid Atlantic region late Friday into early Saturday. Another weak cold front may move across the area Sunday, followed by a stronger cold front around Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds across the southeastern states into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. The heaviest rain is exiting the region at this time so we've cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for all areas except our northern NJ counties where flooding is still ongoing in places.

By tonight, the front will start to move offshore. Latest trends suggest that some additional showers may blossom along the back edge of the front through the overnight hours. These should be lighter and less organized than the rain from today. However, a chance for showers will remain over the eastern half of the area for much of the night. Lows will vary quite a bit. Western and especially northwestern portions of the area will drop to the low 50s (even upper 40s!) as cooler air spills in behind the front. However, with the lingering clouds and showers, eastern areas will be closer to 60.

For Friday, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes will begin to accelerate northeastward into Canada. Light northwest flow will overspread the area and continue to advect in cooler and drier air. There may be some lingering showers near the coast through mid- morning, but most areas will be dry by sunrise. Aside from the chance for a lingering coastal shower early, Friday will turn into a very pleasant and fall like day. Highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s are anticipated, and low dew points will bring a crisp feel to the air. Abundant sunshine is expected.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Dry weather is expected for the beginning of the weekend from Friday night through Saturday night. High pressure will briefly affect the Mid Atlantic region Friday night through Saturday, before weakening across the area Saturday night. However, a weak disturbance may develop along the weakening frontal boundary that will be stalled offshore of the east coast later Saturday into Saturday night. If this low moves close enough to the coast, it could bring some showers to portions of coastal New Jersey. Otherwise, dry weather is expected during this period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term forecast is for mostly dry weather, with a couple of chances of showers with a couple of weak cold fronts.

High pressure will build across the southeast states through the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a surface trough may be in place across the Mid Atlantic on Sunday, while a weakening cold front moves across the area as well. There is little moisture associated with either of these features, so no precipitation is expected.

By Monday into Tuesday, another weak cold front, yet stronger than the front over the weekend, will approach the area and move across the east coast. The actual front may not make it until Tuesday, but a pre-frontal trough may affect on Monday into Monday night. There will be a chance to slight chance of showers from Monday through Tuesday.

Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday as the front stalls offshore and high pressure builds across southeastern Canada with our area on the southern periphery.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through this evening . Lingering restrictions to MVFR and locally IFR remain likely as a frontal system continues to slowly push eastward bringing low clouds, showers, and some downpours with embedded thunder. Winds have already shifted from southeast to southwest or west at most of the terminals. Only ACY remains, and it too will shift to southwest or west by this evening as the front moves through. Wind speeds are also decreasing with the frontal passage, and a generally southwest flow of 5 to 10 kt is expected behind the front through around 0z. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Near and west of PHL, an improvement from MVFR to VFR is likely early on in the night as the frontal system pushes further east. However, east of PHL and especially near the coast, including ACY, MVFR conditions and rain showers may continue through most of the night, though gradual improvement is expected. Winds will generally shift from southwest to northwest at around 5 kt, but may be light and variable at times. Moderate confidence.

Friday . VFR. A lingering morning shower is possible near the coast. West-northwest wind 5 to 10 kt, except may be more west- southwest near RDG and ABE. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday night-Saturday night . Mostly VFR expected. Northwest winds 5- 10 knots or less Friday night, becoming southwest during the day Saturday, then northwest Saturday night. Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Tuesday . Generally VFR conditions expected. A chance of showers which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Southwest winds 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots on Monday, becoming west during the day Tuesday behind a cold front. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through tonight . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect on the Atlantic coastal waters, where seas will remain around 5 to 7 ft. Ahead of the cold front, south-southeasterly winds could continue to gust around 30 kt through the evening. Behind the front, winds will shift to southwest then northwest and decrease in speed. The wind shift will happen over the southern waters first, as early as this afternoon, but should occur over all the coastal waters by around midnight. On Delaware Bay, with the shift to westerly flow, wind speeds have decreased significantly. The Gale Warning for Delaware Bay has been cancelled, and sub-SCA conditions are expected.

Friday . On the Atlantic coastal waters, seas will continue to run around 5 ft into the afternoon. The SCA will remain in effect until 4PM, though it is possible we will be able to cancel it a little earlier than that. On Delaware Bay, sub-SCA conditions are expected. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt, decreasing and turning more westerly in the afternoon.

Outlook .

Friday night-Sunday . Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times and seas could approach 4 feet at times.

Rip currents .

We have forecast a HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents for today for both NJ and DE beaches, as winds become a little stronger with an increasing swell.

A HIGH risk will continue for the NJ beaches on Friday with a MODERATE risk expected at the DE beaches.

A Rip Current Statement is in effect for the DE beaches through tonight and for the NJ beaches through Friday evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The strong southeast to south flow has ceased on Chesapeake Bay and on Delaware Bay. Water is no longer being pushed into the bays.

While the surface flow has shifted mainly to the west on the Chesapeake, it may take some time for the excess water to drain out of the bay. While widespread minor tidal flooding is not expected with this evening's high tide on the upper eastern shore, some spotty overflow remains possible at that time. It should not be impactful enough to warrant another advisory.

The minor tidal flooding has come to an end in Salem County, New Jersey and in New Castle, County, Delaware. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been allowed to expire there. Some excess water remains trapped in the tidal Delaware River. Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected there into this evening. The flooding will be enhanced a bit by runoff from the heavy rain. As a result, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the tidal Delaware River down to the Commodore Barry Bridge area until 7:00 PM.

Finally, no significant issues are anticipated along the oceanfront and along much of Delaware Bay. However, some spotty minor tidal flooding is possible on the back bays into this evening.

Tidal departures will continue to decrease on Friday and into the weekend.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010-012- 015. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE . High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Fitzsimmons/O'Brien Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Robertson Aviation . O'Brien/Robertson Marine . O'Brien/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 76°F1012.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 32 mi162 min WNW 1 65°F 1012 hPa65°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 35 mi54 min W 6 G 7 67°F 73°F1013.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi42 min SE 5.8 G 9.7 70°F 77°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 36 mi60 min E 5.1 G 6 68°F 76°F1013 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi72 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 76°F1013.3 hPa (+1.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi54 min E 6 G 8 68°F 1013.1 hPa
CPVM2 39 mi54 min 69°F 64°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi42 min 68°F 76°F1013.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 40 mi60 min W 5.1 G 8 1013.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 42 mi54 min SE 5.1 G 8 70°F 78°F1012.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 43 mi54 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 75°F1012.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi54 min W 4.1 G 7 68°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi54 min SE 6 G 8 68°F 78°F1012.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi54 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 74°F1012.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi54 min SSW 2.9 G 6 66°F 75°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi22 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F94%1014.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD18 mi17 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1013.5 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE22 mi18 minESE 410.00 miOvercast65°F62°F90%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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NW4NW7CalmCalmE3E3SE3Calm
1 day agoE5E5E3E3E4SE3E3CalmSE5SE5SE4E6E6SE9S11
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2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmE4CalmE4E5E6E7SE6E6E9E8E7E8E8E5

Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
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Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.91.11.51.92.22.32.11.81.410.80.60.70.91.41.92.42.62.52.321.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sharptown, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Sharptown
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.30.30.71.31.92.52.82.82.51.91.30.70.30.30.61.21.92.633.12.92.41.7

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