Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Geyserville, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday October 28, 2021 1:30 PM PDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 1:43PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 936 Am Pdt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 9 to 11 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 15 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft and nw 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft and W 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ500 936 Am Pdt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A moderately large, longer period northwest swell has arrived and is outperforming model data by a few feet, with swell heights of 10 to 14 feet at roughly 15 to 17 seconds. This wave energy will bring hazardous conditions for small craft vessels, particularly in the surf zone, near shoals, and at harbor entrances with breakers of 15 to 20 feet. This wave energy will gradually subside later today and into tomorrow. Breezy to locally gusty northwest winds will persist during the day over in our outer waters and occasionally along some of our inner water zones.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geyserville, CA
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location: 38.71, -123     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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FXUS66 KSTO 281034 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 334 AM PDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and mild weather the next couple of days. Low pressure moving over the far northern portion of California will bring a chance of showers late Friday and Saturday, mainly to the northern mountains. Rain returns to the the majority of Northern California early next week.

DISCUSSION. A little north wind down the Valley overnight provided sufficient mixing to limit fog in the Valley, while the night fog product showed moisture trapped in the mountain valleys/basins, i.e. Burney Basin and around Big Q. Increasing subsidence this morning, from the upper ridge axis building over the region, may lead to some fog in the Valley, as moisture from recent rain will be trapped below the radiative inversion. The HREF suggests some patchy chances of better than 50/50 of VSBYS less than 3SM developing before or after sunrise from the Nrn San Joaquin Valley northward into the central Sac Vly, mainly in the 0600-1000 time frame. At 0300, MCC and SAC began to report BR. Otherwise, a very pleasant day with max temps near to a little above normal in the Valley, and 3 to 9 degrees above normal in the mountains due to the warmer air aloft.

The upper ridge over Norcal shifts Ewd on Fri in advance of a closing mid-level low pressure center. Differences in the track of the low center provide a great deal of uncertainty in the areal coverage of PoPs/QPFs mainly Fri nite and Sat. The GFS continues to be farther south and faster than the ECMWF. The 5H cluster analysis shows a trof over Norcal with only Cluster 3 heavily weighted to the ECMWF showing a closed low just off the N CA coast by 12z Sat. Looks as if the models, especially the GFS have slowed the timing of spreading precip into our CWA and have adjusted the PoP/QPF timing in the morning package to Fri nite and Sat. This also includes limiting the chance of thunder to Sat with the consolidated low near the CA/OR border. Forecast water vapor transport shows Norcal in between moisture plumes so just light QPFs are expected over the Nrn mountain zones. The SREF QPF plumes show a mean of about 0.20" at MHS, and less than a tenth of RDD, however the majority of members are higher and consolidated just under a tenth of an inch.

A narrow highly amplified ridge builds along the W Coast on Sun while the cut-off low fills/exits our area, but suppresses heights and warming in our CWA. Thus a cooling trend is expected over the weekend. The narrow, amplified ridge will quickly be shunted Ewd by the next progressive Pacific trof and front which is forecast to move inland on Mon bringing another round of precip to interior Norcal. JHM

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday).

Models in good agreement with progression of next Pacific frontal system into NorCal Monday. Front progged to weaken as it moves into the CWA with overall light QPF. Drier weather expected Tuesday into early Wednesday under upper level ridge. Models differ with progression and overall QPF of next system, but point to more widespread light to moderate precipitation around the Wed/Thu timeframe.

AVIATION.

VFR conds ovr intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR poss in BR/FG in Cntrl Vly til 17z with sfc wnd blo 12 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDXC1 27 mi85 min 58°F
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 40 mi43 min 0G1.9 60°F 1021.5 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 49 mi43 min 59°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair73°F58°F59%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0304SW40S30000NW40000000NW3NW3NW5NW40
1 day agoS8S8S5S5SW3N3NW3NW3NW3N4N300000000N30000
2 days agoW9W9W10SW9W6SW4E40E30000N30000000S3SW3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:51 AM PDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM PDT     3.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 02:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 PM PDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:40 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:48 AM PDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:24 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM PDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:00 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:06 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 02:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:26 PM PDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:56 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM PDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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