Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:14PMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 136 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 30 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt... Becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore later today. A large area of low pressure will track into the region tonight into Friday, promoting a strong onshore flow. The low will gradually lift away from the area by the end of the weekend. Gale warnings are in effect for all waters for Friday morning into Friday night. Small craft advisories will likely follow after gale conditions diminish into early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, MD
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location: 38.72, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 281940 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 340 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure overhead will start to move off to the east tonight ahead of the new low pressure system. Strong low pressure builds into the area late tonight and into Friday from the southwest, bringing several potential impacts to the area. Large upper low will continue to meander throughout the weekend leading to continued cool and unsettled conditions. High pressure returns by Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. High pressure has begun moving offshore of the Delmarva, this will continue throughout the rest of the afternoon as it gets pushed away by a large scale upper level low pressure system poised to bring significant impacts to the area by late tonight and into Friday. Some high and mid-level clouds have begun to move into the area over the last several hours but with subsidence nearby, will continue to stay dry over the next few hours.

As an associated warm front of the large upper-level low moves further northeast into our area late this evening, some showers will begin to move into portions of central VA by later tonight. Latest water vapor imagery depicts a large, rich moisture plume from just off the southeast coast moving into the Mid-Atlantic region currently. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight than last night as we get closer to the warm sector of the front later this evening, keeping temps in the upper 40s to low 50s across most areas. Another important impact that will begin to ramp up tonight will be the winds across the higher elevations, particularly the Allegheny Front as well as along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. By early Friday morning, impacts will begin to ramp up for the upper low pressure system tracking throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Still expecting the heaviest rainfall to occur from Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Widespread 1 to 2 inches is expected across most areas with some localized higher amounts, particularly for two areas. The first being across the higher elevations along the Blue Ridge Mountains with totals possibly getting up to 4 plus inches across the areas with orographic enhancement in this region's favor for higher amounts. The other will be for any localized areas along the southeastern portions of the forecast areas from DC metro southward where the potential for a few strong embedded storms could develop along the warm front tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon. Main threats would be for heavy rain, damaging winds with a nonzero chance for an isolated tornado.

Any locally stronger storm may produce a higher rainfall total in a short amount of time. With that being said, Flood Watches have been hoisted for the 1) windward side of the Blue Ridge Mountains and just east as well as 2) near the metropolitan areas. The watches are in effect during the day on Friday. Should guidance continue to increase, additions to the flood watches may be made.

Another important impact Friday will be the winds across the entire forecast area. In particular, the higher elevations will be gusting quite a bit higher than the lower elevations, leading to a Wind Advisory being issued for areas along the Allegheny Front and portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains from 8 PM tonight through early Friday afternoon. Winds along the waters and just onshore will also be very gusty during the day on Friday and headlines have been issued for these areas as well, see Marine section for details. Another important feature that may produce significant impacts will be with strong southeasterly flow, coastal flooding will be reaching levels that have not been met in almost 20 years, see Tides/Coastal Flooding section for details.

The heaviest portion of the rainfall and winds will begin to diminish by late Friday afternoon/evening but moisture will still be present for the remainder of the short term period as the upper low meanders just to our northwest. Saturday looks to be considerably drier than Friday but nonetheless will still be wet and maybe slightly breezy.Temperatures for the period will start out warmer before cooling off a few degrees into the low to mid 60s for the start of the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. After the system exits to the northeast, ridging is expected to build into the region. With high pressure and zonal flow aloft, dry conditions with seasonal temperatures will continue through much of next week. However a shortwave may approach the CWA from the west Tuesday, bringing with it higher rain chances, increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. Another low pressure system may impact the region late in the week.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon as high pressure is nearby with light winds out of the northeast. A strong low pressure system will start to creep in tonight, leading to a gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR from southwest (CHO) to the northeast. Uncertainty continues with how quickly this will happen with respect to the lowering of the ceilings.

As we get closer to late this evening, winds will begin to pick back up as high pressure continues to move further and further offshore. Winds will increase to 25 to 30 knots across a large portion of the area including all the terminals with some areas maybe touching closer to 35 to 40 knots briefly during the afternoon on Friday. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected due to low ceilings and occasional moderate to heavy rains as a warm front moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances remain low at this time but the best chance for any to happen would be at DCA, should any occur.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely at all terminals Saturday as low pressure settles nearby, leading to continued rain chances and light southerly winds across all terminals.

VFR conditions return Sunday and continues Monday as low pressure will continue to depart the region and high pressure builds back in from the west. Winds will remain generally out of the west.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through this afternoon as high pressure continues to influence the region briefly. As high pressure moves further offshore, winds will begin to pick back up later this evening. With this, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the waters starting at 6 PM and will end at 6 AM, where a Gale Warning will take its place. Confidence in these winds is highest across the lower Chesapeake Bay as well as the lower Potomac with water temperatures being a few degrees warmer and less stable air overhead leading to better chances of mixing down near the surface. Nonetheless, the Gale Warnings include all of the waters.

Gusts near the aforementioned area may be as high as 45 to 55 knots briefly during the day, leading to a Storm Warning being issued for the lower portions of the waters with an accompanying High Wind Warning along the shorelines of Calvert and St. Mary's counties in Maryland. Elsewhere, Wind Advisories have been issued along the shoreline north of Calvert county through the Cecil county shoreline for the potential of 40 knot gusts right along the shore inland.

Lighter southerly winds will begin Saturday during the late morning hours as low pressure tracks across the region. Small Craft Advisories will likely follow the Gale Warnings as they expire Friday night and into Saturday morning but should be short-lived in nature.

Low pressure will continue to depart the region Sunday as high pressure returns. An increased gradient may result in SCA conditions across portions of the waters both Sunday and Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

NEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING INFORMATION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

Despite NW offshore flow earlier tonight, water levels have risen substantially during the past 24 hrs much sooner than anticipated by most of the surge models except the CBOFS which showed water levels rising rather rapidly since yesterday. Water anomalies are already up to 2 ft at Straits Point and rising and Annapolis has been hovering around minor flood stage even as the astro tide is going into low tide. Surge models continue to indicate a moderate to high impact coastal flood event lasting several tide cycles (more than 48 hrs). Leaned toward the CBOFS first 24 hrs given its superior performance over the other deterministic surge models and ensemble probabilistic guidance (P-ETSS). This brings moderate coastal flooding much earlier than shown 24 hrs ago and even late yesterday evening. Straits Point will likely hit major flood category tonight. In the upper bay, water levels may hit moderate Saturday afternoon as SW winds may push water up the bay. Issued a Coastal Flood Watch for Harford and Cecil for Fri night into Sat and Advisories for tonight. Elsewhere, Coastal Flood Watches were upgraded to Warnings except at Prince Georges where there are unknown impacts of moderate category except minor flooding at the National Harbor.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for DCZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD . Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for MDZ001. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ011-013- 016. Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for MDZ011-013-014-504-506. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014-017. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for MDZ011-014-508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011- 016-018. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for MDZ017-018. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ018. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for MDZ508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for MDZ508. VA . Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for VAZ503-504-507-508. Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for VAZ036>040-507-508. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ052-053- 055-057. Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for VAZ052>054. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ054. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054. WV . Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for WVZ501-505-506. MARINE . Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>532-535- 536-538>540. Storm Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543. Gale Warning from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537- 541>543.

SYNOPSIS . ADM NEAR TERM . ADM SHORT TERM . ADM LONG TERM . CAS AVIATION . ADM/CAS MARINE . ADM/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 4 mi96 min SW 6 63°F 1012 hPa53°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi48 min SSE 12G14 62°F 66°F1012.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi66 min SSE 5.1G5.1 61°F 66°F1013.1 hPa (-1.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi66 min SSE 8G8.9 66°F 63°F1010.8 hPa (-1.8)
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi48 min S 5.8G7.8 63°F 66°F1012.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi66 min SE 2.9G6 64°F 66°F1011.7 hPa (-1.4)
CPVM2 25 mi66 min 62°F 53°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi66 min ESE 8G9.9 62°F 1012.1 hPa (-1.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi66 min SE 9.9G11 63°F 67°F1011.6 hPa (-1.6)
NCDV2 33 mi66 min ESE 8.9G11 64°F 65°F1011 hPa (-1.6)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 35 mi66 min E 2.9G6 65°F 63°F1012.1 hPa (-1.3)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 36 mi66 min ESE 8G8.9 61°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 36 mi66 min ESE 7G8.9 61°F 1011.8 hPa (-1.6)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi66 min SSE 1.9G5.1 63°F 67°F1011.5 hPa (-1.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi66 min SE 11G12
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 42 mi66 min WNW 2.9G5.1 60°F 64°F1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi66 min SSW 5.1G8 63°F 62°F1012.3 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD12 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F51°F60%1011.5 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi74 minS 810.00 miOvercast68°F52°F57%1011.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi72 minSSE 510.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1012.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi91 minSE 310.00 miOvercast64°F50°F62%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADW

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS10SE10S800N8NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Nottingham, Maryland
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Nottingham
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Thu -- 12:56 AM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:48 PM EDT     -0.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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