Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:13PM Thursday January 20, 2022 6:23 PM EST (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 611 Pm Est Thu Jan 20 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 611 Pm Est Thu Jan 20 2022
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will gradually build across the waters tonight and Friday. A coastal low is expected to form off the carolinas which may bring strong winds to our waters Friday night into Saturday. Small craft advisories will be needed Friday night into this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 202246 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure centered in the upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon will continue to build to the east and it should influence our weather into the weekend. Low pressure is anticipated to develop off the North Carolina coast on Friday night before moving northeastward and farther out to sea on Saturday. A cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest on Sunday night with another high following in its wake for Monday into Tuesday. The pattern is expected to repeat with a cold front on Tuesday night, then high pressure for Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.

. Bitterly cold air mass settles in through Friday .

Made some minor adjustments to PoPs and weather through the evening to account for current radar trends as the back edge of snow continues to progress southeast.

A positively tilted upper-level trough from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes and adjacent Canada will shift eastward through Friday and sharpen some. the cold front is now well southeast of our region, with cold air advection continuing in its wake.

As temperatures drop below freezing everywhere through this evening, surfaces that have not dried out and are untreated can certainly ice up especially bridges and overpasses. At this point though, have not issued any special statement as dry air is also quickly filtering in to the region (already have single digit dew points for portions of the region) and thus many areas have a chance to dry out before icy conditions develop. Will be monitoring closely though as we go through the evening.

Otherwise, strong arctic high pressure builds to our north through Friday with our region under a very cold northerly low- level flow. Temperatures will plummet tonight with widespread teens expected by daybreak Friday (single digits in the Poconos to far northwest New Jersey). Temperatures however may be slower to fall across parts of Delmarva given the aforementioned mid level wave passing by through this evening. A northerly breeze will be present through the night and this will drive wind chill values down into the single digits, with even below zero readings across portions of the far northwestern zones. Portions of the southern Poconos could reach wind chills as low as about -15F overnight and early Friday morning, however this may be more limited to the Pocono plateau and therefore held off on a Wind Chill Advisory for there.

For Friday, southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the upper-level trough should keep at least some clouds in place especially from about the I-95 corridor to the coast. A bitterly cold day with temperatures only warming into the 20s for most places and enough of a breeze will result in low wind chill values. As the sharpening upper-level trough gets closer, surface low pressure is forecast to start organizing off the Carolina coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. It continues to appear as though the precipitation shield associated with the low well off the coast on Friday night into Saturday morning will just brush southeastern Delaware and far southeastern New Jersey. The latest model guidance remains consistent in not phasing the northern and southern stream energy in time to allow the system to wind up quickly enough to make a closer pass to our region. Temperatures will be in the range for all snow even at the coast. Amounts are still forecast to be light, perhaps an inch or two in the Delaware beach communities, with an inch or less in Cape May County.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and cold as high pressure remains in control of our weather. Maximum temperatures should be mostly in the 20s on Saturday and mainly in the 30s on Sunday.

A mid level short wave trough and its surface cold front are forecast to approach from the Great Lakes on Sunday. We are expecting an increase in high and mid level clouds ahead of the system.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A reinforcing cold front is expected to arrive on Sunday night. It should have limited moisture associated with it, so we are not expecting any precipitation at the time. Another area of high pressure should follow for Monday into early Tuesday. As the center of the air mass moves off the coast and out to sea, a southwest surface flow should develop for Tuesday. As a result, temperatures may actually be near normal at that time, even as some light precipitation arrives ahead of an approaching cold front. It should be a mix of light snow and light rain, with just light snow in the elevated terrain up north.

Another arctic air mass is forecast to drop down from central Canada into the central United States during the mid week period. The cold front at the leading edge of the very cold air is expected to reach us on Tuesday night. Dry weather and a return to below normal temperatures are anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Into early this evening . VFR around KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, KPHL and KILG. IFR/MVFR around KMIV and KACY with areas of light snow. Northerly wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Medium to high confidence.

Tonight . VFR. North wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Friday . VFR. North wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Mainly VFR. North wind around 10 knots, becoming northwest. High confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. West wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots, becoming southwest. High confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Through Friday, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all water. Northerly winds will be gusty (to 30 knots) as an arctic air mass continues to settle into the area. These winds should diminish on Delaware Bay for a time early Friday afternoon. Seas will also be elevated as a result. While some freezing spray should develop tonight and Friday, water temperatures away from the immediate nearshore are still in the mid 40s which is on the marginal side for freezing spray development. Given the colder water of Delaware Bay, limited the freezing spray mention to here for now.

Outlook .

Friday night into Saturday . Northerly wind 20 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Freezing spray is likely.

Sunday through Tuesday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Gorse/Johnson Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . Gorse/Iovino Marine . Gorse/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi83 min NNW 16G17 34°F 38°F1025.2 hPa (+2.2)
CPVM2 16 mi53 min 35°F 24°F
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi47 min N 12G16 32°F 38°F1025.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi53 min N 12G16 34°F 36°F1024.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi53 min NNW 7G11 34°F 39°F1024.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi47 min N 21G31 33°F 39°F1016.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi53 min ENE 5.1 34°F 1024 hPa26°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi53 min N 13G15 33°F 37°F1025.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi53 min NNW 20G25 34°F 1024.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi53 min N 9.9G12 34°F 1025.2 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi71 min N 13G15 33°F 1024.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi53 min N 8.9G12 34°F 40°F1024 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi53 min NNE 8.9G12 35°F 40°F1024.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi53 min N 6G11 32°F 38°F1024 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi53 min N 6G12 36°F 35°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrS6
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NW10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi2.5 hrsNNW 47.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F34°F54%1024.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi2.5 hrsno data10.00 miOvercast34°F24°F67%1023.7 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi2.5 hrsN 101.50 miFog/Mist34°F34°F100%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KESN

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrS8S8S6SE4--------------000NW3NW6N6NW6NW9NW10NW10
G16
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1 day ago000SE3--------------S7S8S9S11
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2 days agoW13
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W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:00 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EST     0.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:59 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:21 PM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland, Tide feet
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-0.3
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0.3
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0.7
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1.2
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1.2
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1
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0.8
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0.5
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0.3


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:03 AM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:50 PM EST     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:58 PM EST     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
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-0.3


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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