St. Michaels, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michaels, MD

April 29, 2024 3:52 AM EDT (07:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM
Moonrise 12:06 AM   Moonset 9:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 201 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024

Overnight - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Wed - NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 201 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through tonight will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday afternoon to evening, and again on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 290622 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 222 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper-level high pressure ridge will build along the East coast, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected Monday.
A backdoor cold front will then arrive Monday night and hang across our region on Tuesday, while an upper-level trough approaches. Showers and thunderstorms may threaten later Tuesday and possibly linger into Wednesday, before weak high pressure builds in for Thursday. A cold front could approach from the west later Friday and pass through during the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 12:15AM...Conditions are relatively quiet across the region. Some shortwave energy remains and some rain showers can still be noted in the more northern parts of our forecast area.

Tonight...A mostly quiet and warm night will be tap for the region.
Any remaining scattered showers should dissipated by 1 or 2AM. Lows right around 60F can be expected with winds around 5 mph or less.
Some areas could see winds go light and variable at times. Added some patchy fog to the forecast with this update; many of the model soudings suggest some patchy fog could develop across areas during the early morning hours. Warm air advection will continue to occur and RHs should rise with time.

Today...500 mb heights look to be near 580 dam, values more typical of summertime. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered offshore of the Carolinas, helping to advect warmer and more moist air into the region. The result of this will be very warm day for the region with much above normal temperatures.

High temperatures are expected to soar into the mid to upper 80s in most interior locations under partly cloudy skies. Highs in the more urbanized areas could top out closer to 90 degrees, though readings of 90 degrees or higher still appear unlikely. Northwest flow will add a downsloping component to the winds and thus also help to boost temperatures locally near the urban corridor. The offshore wind will also allow for a notable warmup even along the immediate coast, with highs getting to the low to mid 70s before a sea breeze kicks in.

As the gradient flow weakens and shifts eventually to the southwest then south, a sea breeze will likely make significant inland progress into the I-95 corridor and perhaps even farther inland from there during the evening. This will cool temperatures off into the 70s and 60s by late evening. Dewpoints will be near 60F, so the Heat Index won't be much different than the air temperature. No heat headlines are anticipated. With some additional weak shortwave energy rounding the top of the upper-level ridge, some isolated showers or storm are possible north of Philly, however the subsidence will be quite strong and any convection will likely struggle to materialize.

Monday night...Overall, another warm night anticipated. A backdoor front will sag over region from the north/northeast and become stationary over the region. Low temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 60s southwest of the front and in the mid to upper 50s northeast of the front for most locations. With some lingering shortwave energy, some isolated showers remain possible, mainly for our northern areas. Model soundings support fog development once again during the early morning hours; cannot rule out some patchy fog development once again for some areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Beginning on Monday evening, we may see a few lingering shower mainly across northern New Jersey, perhaps extending down to northern portions of the shore, but those will likely dissipate quickly after sunset with very weak synoptic-scale forcing and a mid/upper-level ridge axis aloft. Otherwise expect a mainly dry and quiet night. Low temperatures will be quite mild across much of our region, with many areas south and west of about Trenton forecast to stay above 60F, which would be the mildest night since last October. The exception, with lows into the lower 50s, will be toward the northern NJ shore. Surface high pressure presses southward across New England and sends a shallow backdoor cold front into the northeast corner of our area. That can be seen in the wind fields of the latest hi- resolution models.

While that ridge axis will start to give way to an approaching upper-level trough Monday night into Tuesday, shifting off the East Coast, mid-level temperatures will only lower slightly.
That warm air aloft will not manifest at the surface for northeast portions of our region, though, thanks to that back- door front. Models disagree on how far south that cooler airmass will seep, but expect most of the shore to stay in the 60s with east to southeast winds off the still chilly Atlantic waters.
Water temperatures are still mainly in the low to mid 50s. As the warmer air aloft overrides that cooler airmass, low clouds will develop late Monday night and may reach as far south as near Philly to Brigantine NJ early Tuesday morning. Some of those clouds should lift out heading toward the afternoon, especially away from the shore, but will still keep temperatures much cooler than Monday. For now we are still forecasting low 80s in Philly, but it will be a tricky forecast. Expect most areas northeast of there to struggle to reach higher than the low to mid 70s, with some model guidance suggesting parts of northern NJ to the Poconos will stay mostly cloudy and in the 60s on Tuesday.

Aside from the temperatures Tuesday, we will have to keep an eye out for showers and thunderstorms developing across central and eastern PA ahead of the approaching upper-level trough. The southern stream portion of the trough will split and hang back across the Tennessee Valley, with the northern stream shortwave tending to 'pull-up' and weaken as it approaches. Additionally, a new surface low will develop around SE PA into northern Delaware on Tuesday, before tracking ENE offshore Tuesday night.
All of this will tend to limit instability and forcing from the Delaware Valley eastward across NJ, so that storms will eventually weaken as they head into that airmass. That said, guidance does indicate 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE and perhaps 30-35 kt of deep layer shear, so that while the absence of a distinct surface cold front and weaker forcing aloft may limit thunderstorm potential, anything that does develop across eastern PA could be rather strong, even locally severe, before it weakens. Do not expect widespread storms though, with fairly limited rainfall area-wide Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Even on Wednesday, as low pressure pushes offshore, a fairly moist atmosphere will remain in place, while some model guidance slows the upper-level trough passage enough so that it will not pass by portions of our area until the afternoon. That may allow a few spotty showers to linger, along with a fair amount of cloud-cover. Lowered high temperatures a bit from NBM guidance otherwise area-wide, as much of our region will be more exposed to cooler east-northeast flow, keeping highs mainly in the low to mid 70s from the Delaware Valley west, and in the 60s toward the shore.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will take control heading into the last couple days of the work-week. While upper-level ridging will start to shift eastward across the Appalachians toward Friday, another surface high pressing southward from New England may bring another 'back-door' shot of cooler air in, keeping at least much of the shore and perhaps much of northern NJ in the 60s to low 70s. Dry weather is expected with fairly plentiful sunshine, and slightly above normal temperatures farther southwest from the marine influence. Some showers may threaten as early as late in the day Friday, with increasing clouds toward eastern PA, as the next storm system approaches. That looks to be another surface low lifting across the Great Lakes, with a weakening surface cold front heading our way over the weekend. Stayed with NBM POPs. Not looking like a washout, but some scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should remain pretty close to typical values for early May, if not slightly above normal.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...Mainly VFR. There is a growing concern for some patchy fog development during the early morning hours at several sites. For the most part, any fog development should just be light patchy ground fog not causing sub-VFR VISBYS.
However, cannot rule out fog causing some specific sites (e.g., KABE) to drop to IFR or lower at times. Will amend as needed.
Winds mainly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR conditions with few to scattered clouds. Winds initially from the NNW/NW near 5-10 kts will back with time.
Sea breeze will develop and penetrate further inland with time during the afternoon/evening, causing winds to shift out of the S/SSE. Slight chance to chance (20-40%) of isolated/scattered showers in the afternoon into the evening, mainly for sites north of KPHL. High confidence overall, lower confidence in details (e.g., exact sea breeze timing).

Monday night...Mainly VFR, though it worth mentioning some guidance has cloud bases lowering to 10k ft or less for sites north of KPNE towards the end of the period. Some patchy fog may once again occur at some sites. Mainly variable winds 5 kts or less.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR but occasional MVFR and even briefly/locally IFR conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of those showers may linger into Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through Monday night. WSW winds 5-10 kts will shift briefly W then NW this early morning due to a land breeze. Winds shift to the SSE/S by late morning then hold S through Monday night. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

South to southeast winds may pick up to near 15 kt off the southern NJ and Delaware coast enough to raise seas above 4 ft.
Some scattered showers and even a stray thunderstorm will threaten by Tuesday evening and may linger into Wednesday.
Winds will tend more E to NE on Wednesday but still just around 10 kt or so, with seas near 3 ft. Expect very similar conditions for Thursday as high pressure builds southward from New England for the end of the work-week, with winds tending more southerly by Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are not anticipated through the week ahead.

CLIMATE
Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast on Monday.
Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures Jan 25 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1974 AC Airport (ACY) 92/1974 AC Marina (55N) 88/2017 Georgetown (GED) 91/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1974 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/1974 Reading (RDG) 91/1888 Trenton (TTN) 88/1974 Wilmington (ILG) 91/1974|

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi52 min WSW 8.9G9.9 69°F 30.04
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi46 min W 9.7G14 66°F 60°F
CPVM2 16 mi52 min 65°F 60°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi52 min WSW 5.1G8 70°F 61°F30.03
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi52 min WSW 2.9G12 70°F 65°F29.99
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi46 min WSW 14G16 62°F 59°F1 ft
44043 - Patapsco, MD 26 mi46 min NNW 3.9G5.8 64°F 59°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi82 min S 2.9 69°F 30.0160°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi52 min E 2.9G4.1 65°F 30.01
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi52 min S 20G26 71°F 30.03
CBCM2 33 mi52 min W 4.1G7 67°F 60°F29.9860°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi52 min W 5.1G6 67°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi52 min WSW 9.9G14 67°F 61°F30.02
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi52 min 0G1 68°F 61°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi52 min WSW 11G13 65°F 65°F30.03
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi52 min SSW 4.1G5.1 68°F 63°F30.02


Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD 7 sm27 minSW 0510 smClear66°F59°F78%30.02
KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD 21 sm27 mincalm10 smClear64°F64°F100%30.02
Link to 5 minute data for KESN


Wind History from ESN
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
   
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St. Michaels
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.6
5
am
0.8
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.5
8
am
1.8
9
am
1.9
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.5
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
1
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
1



Tide / Current for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:09 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.1
1
am
-0.1
2
am
-0.3
3
am
-0.4
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.2
6
am
0.1
7
am
0.4
8
am
0.7
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.9
11
am
0.8
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
-0.6
4
pm
-0.8
5
pm
-0.8
6
pm
-0.8
7
pm
-0.5
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
0
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.3




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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