Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michaels, MD
May 20, 2024 2:22 AM EDT (06:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 135 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Overnight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 135 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 200232 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1032 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the Northeast builds across the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday before moving offshore on Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
1030 PM... no changes in thinking thus far compared to earlier discussion below.
700 PM...As of early this evening, weak ridging continues to gradually build in with a general trend in diminishing cloud cover also being observed. This trend should continue as it becomes mainly clear to partly cloudy for most of this evening under the influence of this surface ridging. However most of our forecast guidance indicates another round of low stratus is likely to develop overnight along with some mist and fog. This is actually the most challenging part of the near term forecast in terms of whether it will be more of a low stratus setup vs.
fog for tonight. Areas where there's more clearing and it stays clear for longer could see more in the way of fog develop but overall it once again appears to be more of a low stratus setup.
Expect overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 50s over the coastal plain to the upper 50s to near 60 over portions of eastern PA.
The trend towards brighter and warmer weather will continue as we head into the day Monday. High pressure centered right near the area early in the day will slowly nudge southward through the day and as this occurs, there will also be upper level ridging building over the mid Atlantic into the northeast. As mentioned above, expect some fog and stratus around to start the day but this should give way to increasing amounts of sunshine by late morning through the afternoon. For most of the area temperatures will warm some compared to today as highs reach the 70s to near 80 in some spots. However light onshore winds will be persisting and this will keep it cooler near the coast where highs will be stuck in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, little changes were made to the short term period as the mid to upper level ridge essentially lies overhead through Tuesday night before beginning to breakdown and shift offshore on Wednesday.
Down at the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest while becoming elongated into the southern Appalachian region. The high will sink south of the region on Tuesday and eventually settle offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will yield dry conditions throughout the period.
With clear skies and light winds expected at night, this should favor the development of radiational fog on Monday night as dew point depressions lower. It's a bit unclear how much and where fog actually does develop but with enough of a southerly wind, it should remain more in the way of patchy than widespread. It is possible another round of fog may develop on Tuesday night, but confidence in this is less than Monday night so have left the mention out of this out of the forecast for now.
In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal with respect to low temps both nights with lows generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees. For high temperatures, it is likely that much of the area will range about 5-10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday.
Meaning high temps will top out 80s both days as southerly flow ushers warmer air north. The exception will be for our coastal locales where a sea breeze circulation looks to develop each day.
Given how cold the water temperatures are, there is potential for the sea breeze to develop early enough in the day, that the sea breeze reaches far enough inland that highs for most, if not all, of the coastal plain could be slightly lower than what is forecast.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Summary: The main focus through the long term period is a cold front that is expected to cross through the region on Thursday bringing the chance for thunderstorms. High pressure looks to return on Friday with another disturbance approaching over Memorial Day Weekend.
Details:
Wednesday night...While run-to-run consistency remains poor, indications are for a pre-frontal trough to approach our northwestern areas on Wednesday night. This will result in a slight chance of some thunderstorms across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley for Wednesday night. PoPs are only around 20% so while the probability of occurrence is low, it cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue other than an increase in clouds.
Thursday...Deterministic global guidance between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC now all lie in close relation to one another with respect to the timing of the cold front. Based on current depiction, still thinking that this will be a late afternoon/early evening type of event with the cold front pushing offshore on Thursday night. While the location of the upper trough looks to remain over the Great Lakes, there should be enough surface instability aided by sufficient diurnal heating with temps rising into the 80s. This is supported quite well by both analog-based and machine learning probabilities.
Considering this notion, it warrants some monitoring of severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Friday through Sunday...The forecast for Friday and much of Memorial Day Weekend is highly variable and depends on how quickly the upper flow pattern evolves. The GFS remains the most aggressive with the upper level pattern with an upper ridge building overhead on Friday before another shortwave trough passes by on Saturday into Sunday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with the progression of upper level features, keeping the upper ridge in place through Sunday and shortwave trough delayed until early next week. Due to such drastic timing differences, continued to use a blend of global guidance which keeps a slight chance of showers (~20%) through the holiday weekend. However, the weekend certainly does not look to be a washout by any means, and there will likely be a period of dry weather...just exactly when that will be is yet to be seen.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Mainly VFR this evening but then MVFR cigs/vsby expected to develop overnight with continuing light winds generally out of the east. IFR possible with any patchy fog or lower clouds. The best chances for IFR look to be at ACY. Low confidence.
Monday...MVFR cigs/vsby (with locally IFR) likely to persist through at least the first half of the morning for most sites with conditions expected to improve to VFR through the 14-17z timeframe. Light winds generally out of the east continuing.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...Mostly VFR expected. Some visibility restrictions are possible on Monday night and Tuesday night due to mist/fog.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable especially on Thursday and Thursday night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm on Wednesday night with scattered thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night.
Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.
MARINE
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters through tonight and Monday although there could be some gusts of 15 to 20 knots through this afternoon. Expect seas generally around 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...No marine headlines are expected. Fair weather expected through Wednesday night with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night. Fair weather is expected to return on Friday.
Rip Currents...
A prolonged period of NE to E winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue through Monday. Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday at New Jersey and Delaware beaches. The rip current risk may be low for most of the day Monday for southern New Jersey beaches.
By Tuesday, the winds will be veering to more of a southerly direction at 10 to 15 mph which will reduce the onshore component at most beaches. However we'll also be heading closer to the Full Moon on the 23rd so for this reason expect that most of our beaches will continue to see a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1032 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the Northeast builds across the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday before moving offshore on Wednesday. A cold front approaches and swings through the area on Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure returns for Friday with another low pressure system approaching by next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
1030 PM... no changes in thinking thus far compared to earlier discussion below.
700 PM...As of early this evening, weak ridging continues to gradually build in with a general trend in diminishing cloud cover also being observed. This trend should continue as it becomes mainly clear to partly cloudy for most of this evening under the influence of this surface ridging. However most of our forecast guidance indicates another round of low stratus is likely to develop overnight along with some mist and fog. This is actually the most challenging part of the near term forecast in terms of whether it will be more of a low stratus setup vs.
fog for tonight. Areas where there's more clearing and it stays clear for longer could see more in the way of fog develop but overall it once again appears to be more of a low stratus setup.
Expect overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 50s over the coastal plain to the upper 50s to near 60 over portions of eastern PA.
The trend towards brighter and warmer weather will continue as we head into the day Monday. High pressure centered right near the area early in the day will slowly nudge southward through the day and as this occurs, there will also be upper level ridging building over the mid Atlantic into the northeast. As mentioned above, expect some fog and stratus around to start the day but this should give way to increasing amounts of sunshine by late morning through the afternoon. For most of the area temperatures will warm some compared to today as highs reach the 70s to near 80 in some spots. However light onshore winds will be persisting and this will keep it cooler near the coast where highs will be stuck in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, little changes were made to the short term period as the mid to upper level ridge essentially lies overhead through Tuesday night before beginning to breakdown and shift offshore on Wednesday.
Down at the surface, broad high pressure over New England will expand southwest while becoming elongated into the southern Appalachian region. The high will sink south of the region on Tuesday and eventually settle offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will yield dry conditions throughout the period.
With clear skies and light winds expected at night, this should favor the development of radiational fog on Monday night as dew point depressions lower. It's a bit unclear how much and where fog actually does develop but with enough of a southerly wind, it should remain more in the way of patchy than widespread. It is possible another round of fog may develop on Tuesday night, but confidence in this is less than Monday night so have left the mention out of this out of the forecast for now.
In terms of temperatures, it is looking like we will return close to normal with respect to low temps both nights with lows generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees. For high temperatures, it is likely that much of the area will range about 5-10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and as much as 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday.
Meaning high temps will top out 80s both days as southerly flow ushers warmer air north. The exception will be for our coastal locales where a sea breeze circulation looks to develop each day.
Given how cold the water temperatures are, there is potential for the sea breeze to develop early enough in the day, that the sea breeze reaches far enough inland that highs for most, if not all, of the coastal plain could be slightly lower than what is forecast.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Summary: The main focus through the long term period is a cold front that is expected to cross through the region on Thursday bringing the chance for thunderstorms. High pressure looks to return on Friday with another disturbance approaching over Memorial Day Weekend.
Details:
Wednesday night...While run-to-run consistency remains poor, indications are for a pre-frontal trough to approach our northwestern areas on Wednesday night. This will result in a slight chance of some thunderstorms across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley for Wednesday night. PoPs are only around 20% so while the probability of occurrence is low, it cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue other than an increase in clouds.
Thursday...Deterministic global guidance between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC now all lie in close relation to one another with respect to the timing of the cold front. Based on current depiction, still thinking that this will be a late afternoon/early evening type of event with the cold front pushing offshore on Thursday night. While the location of the upper trough looks to remain over the Great Lakes, there should be enough surface instability aided by sufficient diurnal heating with temps rising into the 80s. This is supported quite well by both analog-based and machine learning probabilities.
Considering this notion, it warrants some monitoring of severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Friday through Sunday...The forecast for Friday and much of Memorial Day Weekend is highly variable and depends on how quickly the upper flow pattern evolves. The GFS remains the most aggressive with the upper level pattern with an upper ridge building overhead on Friday before another shortwave trough passes by on Saturday into Sunday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with the progression of upper level features, keeping the upper ridge in place through Sunday and shortwave trough delayed until early next week. Due to such drastic timing differences, continued to use a blend of global guidance which keeps a slight chance of showers (~20%) through the holiday weekend. However, the weekend certainly does not look to be a washout by any means, and there will likely be a period of dry weather...just exactly when that will be is yet to be seen.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Mainly VFR this evening but then MVFR cigs/vsby expected to develop overnight with continuing light winds generally out of the east. IFR possible with any patchy fog or lower clouds. The best chances for IFR look to be at ACY. Low confidence.
Monday...MVFR cigs/vsby (with locally IFR) likely to persist through at least the first half of the morning for most sites with conditions expected to improve to VFR through the 14-17z timeframe. Light winds generally out of the east continuing.
Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...Mostly VFR expected. Some visibility restrictions are possible on Monday night and Tuesday night due to mist/fog.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable especially on Thursday and Thursday night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm on Wednesday night with scattered thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night.
Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.
MARINE
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters through tonight and Monday although there could be some gusts of 15 to 20 knots through this afternoon. Expect seas generally around 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...No marine headlines are expected. Fair weather expected through Wednesday night with a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday into Thursday night. Fair weather is expected to return on Friday.
Rip Currents...
A prolonged period of NE to E winds at 10 to 15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph at night will continue through Monday. Along with 3 to 4 ft seas, this will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Monday at New Jersey and Delaware beaches. The rip current risk may be low for most of the day Monday for southern New Jersey beaches.
By Tuesday, the winds will be veering to more of a southerly direction at 10 to 15 mph which will reduce the onshore component at most beaches. However we'll also be heading closer to the Full Moon on the 23rd so for this reason expect that most of our beaches will continue to see a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 13 mi | 82 min | SE 9.9G | 63°F | 30.06 | |||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 16 mi | 52 min | SE 7.8G | 62°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| CPVM2 | 16 mi | 82 min | 64°F | 59°F | ||||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 18 mi | 64 min | 67°F | 30.04 | ||||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 19 mi | 64 min | 71°F | 30.02 | ||||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 21 mi | 52 min | SSE 9.7G | 59°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 26 mi | 52 min | SE 14G | 62°F | 67°F | 1 ft | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 26 mi | 52 min | 0 | 59°F | 30.01 | 58°F | ||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 28 mi | 64 min | 30.04 | |||||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 30 mi | 64 min | 30.02 | |||||
| CBCM2 | 33 mi | 64 min | 67°F | 30.01 | ||||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 33 mi | 82 min | SSE 8G | 64°F | ||||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 36 mi | 64 min | 67°F | 30.01 | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 37 mi | 64 min | 67°F | |||||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 42 mi | 64 min | 67°F | 30.03 | ||||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 43 mi | 64 min | 68°F | 30.01 | ||||
| DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE | 45 mi | 52 min | ESE 2.9 | 56°F | 30.04 | 56°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 7 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 30.03 | |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 21 sm | 17 min | E 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 30.03 |
St. Michaels
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:26 PM EDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:47 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:30 AM EDT 1.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:26 PM EDT 1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:47 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:12 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:07 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT 0.46 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM EDT -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:12 AM EDT 0.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:42 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:07 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT 0.46 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM EDT -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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