Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shady Side, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday October 23, 2021 5:40 PM EDT (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 438 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 438 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will exit to the east tonight. High pressure is slated to build over the area Sunday. A warm front will approach from the west by Sunday evening while a cold front will cross through the area late Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday while gale conditions will be possible on Tuesday as an area of low pressure develops off the coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shady Side, MD
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location: 38.86, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 231911 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 311 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually build across the region tonight into Sunday. A warm front will cross the region late Sunday and Sunday night. A strong cold front will then cross the region Monday night into Tuesday with low pressure lingering nearby into Tuesday night. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday before another system approaches by late Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A very weak frontal boundary is pushing southeastward across the Appalachians, helping to generate some showers across PA and northern MD. Some may extend further south as the afternoon progresses, but much of the area and much of the time will be dry for the rest of the day.

There isn't much push of wind behind the front, so the air mass change is minor. However, relatively dry air already in place will allow lows to drop into the 40s for most areas overnight with some clearing.

Sunshine will be more common Sunday, but some warm advection clouds may return as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The sun should allow temps to creep up a few more degrees, but still close to normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Warm front will push north across the region late Sunday/Sunday night, with increased clouds, stronger southerly flow (at least, on the waters) and milder temps. Could be a stray shower but most of the time looks dry.

Behind this front, much warmer air will envelop the area for Monday ahead of the next cold front. Temps likely push well into the 70s and could crack 80 in places. Clouds will be increasing from west to east, and western areas could see some showers or even a t-storm later in the day, but bulk of the area looks dry most of the day.

Things get much more interesting Monday night as the strong front and upper trough swings into the area. Shear is quite strong (over 40 knots) though instability may be very limiting. Nevertheless, there is a risk of stronger storms given the forcing, and the SPC has placed parts of the area in a slight risk. This may be expanded across more of the region as confidence grows.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Rain showers are possible Tuesday morning mainly along and east of I- 95 as the main storm system continues moving east. Additional upslope rain showers are possible into Tuesday afternoon/evening across the Allegheny Highlands as an additional disturbance moves through. Areas east of the higher terrain should just remain cloudy Tuesday afternoon due to enough downsloping.

Transient ridging builds in late Tuesday. There could be some frost/freeze mainly along/west of I-81 Tuesday night depending on how quickly clouds move out of the region, although the growing season has already ended for Garrett County and will be ending soon for the remaining counties west of I-81.

What is certain amount both deterministic and ensembles is the late Wednesday through Friday timeframe looks unsettled across the eastern US. However, uncertainty arises regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern and a lee cyclone developing off the Rockies. Some guidance has a closed upper level low meandering over the eastern US while other guidance has broad troughing. Late Thursday currently looks like the best opportunity for steadier rain.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR overall for all sites through Monday morning. Could be some brief reductions this afternoon as showers cross the northern terminals, with brief restrictions possible at MRB/MTN/BWI, but odds are low. Light winds through Sunday, then increasing southerly flow by Monday will see gusts passing 20 knots. Showers and perhaps some t-storms with gusty winds possible Monday night with a cold front.

Sub VFR conditions are possible at the terminals along I-95 Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail late Tuesday into Wednesday. The winds will be out of the northwest near 15 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots Tuesday during the day. Winds decrease to near 10 knots Tuesday night.

MARINE. Light winds presently despite a weak cold frontal passage will become southerly and strengthen on Sunday. By Sunday night, widespread SCA expected across most waters except for the narrower, more protected ones such as the upper tidal Potomac. Even this won't last and by Monday, all waters likely see southerly gusts of 20-30 knots. Stronger front Monday night likely brings some gusty showers and this could result in special marine warnings.

SCA conditions are likely Tuesday with gales possible as northwest winds approach gusts to 30 knots. Winds remain out of the northwest Wednesday, but still could gust to SCA levels.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Whlie water levels are low presently, increasing southerly flow ahead of the next cold front Monday night will lead to rising water levels. We may reach minor flood thresholds, especially at the more sensitive sites, by late Monday/Monday night, though uncertainty is high and am not currently forecasting it. Anomalies should drop thereafter as winds become northerly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ539. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ531>533-540>542. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . CPB AVIATION . RCM/CPB MARINE . RCM/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . RCM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi40 min SW 11G13 65°F 67°F1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
44063 - Annapolis 7 mi40 min NE 3.9G5.8 57°F 67°F1 ft1006.1 hPa (-9.3)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 9 mi52 min WSW 1.9G6 65°F 69°F1014.1 hPa
CPVM2 10 mi52 min 65°F 51°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi70 min NW 2.9 64°F 1014 hPa50°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi40 min WSW 7.8G12 65°F 68°F1 ft1015.4 hPa (-0.5)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi52 min NW 8.9G9.9 59°F 1014.5 hPa
FSNM2 25 mi52 min NW 9.9G12 58°F 1014.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi52 min NW 15G21 58°F 66°F1015.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi52 min NNE 8G9.9 60°F 70°F1014.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi52 min WSW 6G8.9 66°F 66°F1014.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi52 min W 6G8.9 67°F 66°F1013.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi52 min SW 6G8 67°F 1014.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi52 min W 8G12 68°F 69°F1014.2 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi52 min WSW 4.1G5.1 68°F 67°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi46 minN 010.00 miOvercast65°F50°F59%1014.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi50 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F52°F56%1015.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi44 minWSW 310.00 miFair64°F50°F60%1014.1 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi45 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F52°F72%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNAK

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:34 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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